Exam 16: Time-Series Forecasting

SCENARIO 16-5 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Scenario 16-5, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 5-term moving average.The last smoothed value will be __________.

SCENARIO 16-2 The monthly advertising expenditures of a department store chain (in $1,000,000s)were collected over the last decade.The last 14 months of this time series follows: -Referring to Scenario 16-2, advertising expenditures appear to be increasing in a linear rather than curvilinear manner over time.

SCENARIO 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Scenario 16-3, if a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would be the last calculated value?

SCENARIO 16-5 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Scenario 16-5, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 5-term moving average.The first smoothed value will be __________.

SCENARIO 16-10 Business closures in a city in the western U.S.from 2007 to 2012 were: Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: -Referring to Scenario 16-10, the value of the MAD for the first-order autoregressive model is ________.

SCENARIO 16-13 Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the month is 0: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Scenario 16-13, what is the p-value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model?

SCENARIO 16-7 The executive vice-president of a drug manufacturing firm believes that the demand for the firm's most popular drug has been evidencing an exponential trend since 1999.She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below.The dependent variable is the log base 10 of the demand for the drug, while the independent variable is years, where 1999 is coded as 0, 2000 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT -Referring to Scenario 16-7, the fitted exponential trend equation to predict Y is __________.

SCENARIO 16-4 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Scenario 16-4, a centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The moving average for 2010 is __________.

SCENARIO 16-4 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Scenario 16-4, exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to smooth the wine sales.The value of the smoothed value for 2009 is __________.

SCENARIO 16-5 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Scenario 16-5, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 3-term moving average.The last smoothed value will be __________.

SCENARIO 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Scenario 16-3, if a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, how many forecasts would the analysis have?

SCENARIO 16-4 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Scenario 16-4, a centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The number of moving averages that will be calculated is __________.

SCENARIO 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Scenario 16-3, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 1/3, what would be the first value?

SCENARIO 16-13 Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the month is 0: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Scenario 16-13, the best model based on the residual plots is the second-order autoregressive model.

SCENARIO 16-14 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation: where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. Q is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. -Referring to Scenario 16-14, using the regression equation, which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2014?

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations, there are only thirteen 3-year moving averages.

SCENARIO 16-13 Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the month is 0: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Scenario 16-13, what is your estimated annual compound growth rate using the exponential-trend model?

SCENARIO 16-13 Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the month is 0: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Scenario 16-13, what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the second-order autoregressive model?

For time intervals exceeding one year and are not explainable using trend or cyclical analyses, which of the following statement(s)are the most likely explanation(s)?

You need to decide whether you should invest in a particular stock.You would like to invest if the price is likely to rise in the long run.You have data on the daily mean price of this stock over the past 12 months.Your best action is to