Deck 17: Forecasting

Question 1

To determine the amount of additional funds needed (AFN), you may subtract the expected increase in liabilities, which represents a source of funds, from the sum of the expected increases in retained earnings and assets, both of which are uses of funds.

Answer 1

False

Question 2

The term "additional funds needed (AFN)" is generally defined as follows:

A) Funds that are obtained automatically from routine business transactions.
B) Funds that a firm must raise externally from non-spontaneous sources, i.e., by borrowing or by selling new stock, to support operations.
C) The amount of assets required per dollar of sales.
D) The amount of internally generated cash in a given year minus the amount of cash needed to acquire the new assets needed to support growth.
E) A forecasting approach in which the forecasted percentage of sales for each balance sheet account is held constant.

Answer 2

B

Question 3

The fact that long-term debt and common stock are raised infrequently and in large amounts lessens the need for the firm to forecast those accounts on a continual basis.

Answer 3

False

Question 4

As a firm's sales grow, its current assets also tend to increase. For instance, as sales increase, the firm's inventories generally increase, and purchases of inventories result in more accounts payable. Thus, spontaneously generated funds arise from transactions brought on by sales increases.

Question 5

When we use the AFN equation to forecast the additional funds needed (AFN), we are implicitly assuming that all financial ratios are constant. If financial ratios are not constant, regression techniques can be used to improve the financial forecast.

Question 6

When developing forecasted financial statements there are some inputs that management controls such as the growth rate and operating costs/sales ratio, while other inputs such as the tax rate and interest rate are not under its control.

Question 7

The capital intensity ratio is generally defined as follows:

A) Sales divided by total assets, i.e., the total assets turnover ratio.
B) The percentage of liabilities that increase spontaneously as a percentage of sales.
C) The ratio of sales to current assets.
D) The ratio of current assets to sales.
E) The amount of assets required per dollar of sales, or A0*/S0.

Question 8

Which of the following assumptions is embodied in the AFN equation?

A) All balance sheet accounts are tied directly to sales.
B) Accounts payable and accruals are tied directly to sales.
C) Common stock and long-term debt are tied directly to sales.
D) Fixed assets, but not current assets, are tied directly to sales.
E) Last year's total assets were not optimal for last year's sales.

Question 9

A firm's profit margin is 5%, its debt/assets ratio is 56%, and its dividend payout ratio is 40%. If the firm is operating at less than full capacity, then sales could increase to some extent without the need for external funds, but if it is operating at full capacity with respect to all assets, including fixed assets, then any positive growth in sales will require some external financing.

Question 10

A typical sales forecast, though concerned with future events, will usually be based on recent historical trends and events as well as on forecasts of economic prospects.

Question 11

If a firm wants to maintain its ratios at their existing levels, then if it has a positive sales growth rate of any amount, it will require some amount of external funding.

Question 12

If a firm's capital intensity ratio (A0*/S0) decreases as sales increase, use of the AFN formula is likely to understate the amount of additional funds required, other things held constant.

Question 13

Jefferson City Computers has developed a forecasting model to estimate its AFN for the upcoming year. All else being equal, which of the following factors is most likely to lead to an increase of the additional funds needed (AFN)?

A) A sharp increase in its forecasted sales.
B) A sharp reduction in its forecasted sales.
C) The company reduces its dividend payout ratio.
D) The company switches its materials purchases to a supplier that sells on terms of 1/5, net 90, from a supplier whose terms are 3/15, net 35.
E) The company discovers that it has excess capacity in its fixed assets.

Question 14

Two firms with identical capital intensity ratios are generating the same amount of sales. However, Firm A is operating at full capacity, while Firm B is operating below capacity. If the two firms expect the same growth in sales during the next period, then Firm A is likely to need more additional funds than Firm B, other things held constant.

Question 15

The term "spontaneously generated funds" generally refers to increases in the cash account that result from growth in sales, assuming the firm is operating with a positive profit margin.

Question 16

A rapid build-up of inventories normally requires additional financing, unless the increase is matched by an equally large decrease in some other asset.

Question 17

If a firm with a positive net worth is operating its fixed assets at full capacity, if its dividend payout ratio is 100%, and if it wants to hold all financial ratios constant, then for any positive growth rate in sales, it will require external financing.

Question 18

Which of the following is NOT a key element in strategic planning as it is described in the text?

A) The mission statement.
B) The statement of the corporation's scope.
C) The statement of cash flows.
D) The statement of corporate objectives.
E) The operating plan.

Question 19

The first, and most critical, step in constructing a set of forecasted financial statements is the sales forecast.

Question 20

Errors in the sales forecast can be offset by similar errors in costs and income forecasts. Thus, as long as the errors are not large, sales forecast accuracy is not critical to the firm.

Question 21

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

A) The sustainable growth rate is the maximum achievable growth rate without the firm having to raise external funds. In other words, it is the growth rate at which the firm's AFN equals zero.
B) If a firm's assets are growing at a positive rate, but its retained earnings are not increasing, then it would be impossible for the firm's AFN to be negative.
C) If a firm increases its dividend payout ratio in anticipation of higher earnings, but sales and earnings actually decrease, then the firm's actual AFN must, mathematically, exceed the previously calculated AFN.
D) Higher sales usually require higher asset levels, and this leads to what we call AFN. However, the AFN will be zero if the firm chooses to retain all of its profits, i.e., to have a zero dividend payout ratio.
E) Dividend policy does not affect the requirement for external funds based on the AFN equation.

Question 22

Spontaneously generated funds are generally defined as follows:

A) Assets required per dollar of sales.
B) A forecasting approach in which the forecasted percentage of sales for each item is held constant.
C) Funds that a firm must raise externally through borrowing or by selling new common or preferred stock.
D) Funds that arise out of normal business operations from its suppliers, employees, and the government, and they include spontaneous increases in accounts payable and accruals.
E) The amount of cash raised in a given year minus the amount of cash needed to finance the additional capital expenditures and working capital needed to support the firm's growth.

Question 23

Last year Jain Technologies had $250 million of sales and $100 million of fixed assets, so its Fixed Assets/Sales ratio was 40%. However, its fixed assets were used at only 75% of capacity. Now the company is developing its financial forecast for the coming year. As part of that process, the company wants to set its target Fixed Assets/Sales ratio at the level it would have had had it been operating at full capacity. What target Fixed Assets/Sales ratio should the company set?

A) 28.5%
B) 30.0%
C) 31.5%
D) 33.1%
E) 34.7%

Question 24

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

A) Perhaps the most important step when developing forecasted financial statements is to determine the breakdown of common equity between common stock and retained earnings.
B) The first, and perhaps the most critical, step in forecasting financial requirements is to forecast future sales.
C) Forecasted financial statements, as discussed in the text, are used primarily as a part of the managerial compensation program, where management's historical performance is evaluated.
D) The capital intensity ratio gives us an idea of the physical condition of the firm's fixed assets.
E) The AFN equation produces more accurate forecasts than the forecasted financial statement method, especially if fixed assets are lumpy and economies of scale exist.

Question 25

Last year Emery Industries had $450 million of sales and $225 million of fixed assets, so its Fixed Assets/Sales ratio was 50%. However, its fixed assets were used at only 65% of capacity. If the company had been able to sell off enough of its fixed assets at book value so that it was operating at full capacity, with sales held constant at $450 million, how much cash (in millions) would it have generated?

A) $74.81
B) $78.75
C) $82.69
D) $86.82
E) $91.16

Question 26

Kamath-Meier Corporation's CFO uses this equation, which was developed by regressing inventories on sales over the past 5 years, to forecast inventory requirements: Inventories = $22.0 + 0.125(Sales). The company expects sales of $400 million during the current year, and it expects sales to grow by 30% next year. What is the inventory forecast for next year? All dollars are in millions.

A) $74.6
B) $78.5
C) $82.7
D) $87.0
E) $91.4

Question 27

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

A) Since accounts payable and accrued liabilities must eventually be paid off, as these accounts increase, AFN as calculated by the AFN equation must also increase.
B) Suppose a firm is operating its fixed assets at below 100% of capacity, but it has no excess current assets. Based on the AFN equation, its AFN will be larger than if it had been operating with excess capacity in both fixed and current assets.
C) If a firm retains all of its earnings, then it cannot require any additional funds to support sales growth.
D) Additional funds needed (AFN) are typically raised using a combination of notes payable, long-term debt, and common stock. Such funds are non-spontaneous in the sense that they require explicit financing decisions to obtain them.
E) If a firm has a positive free cash flow, then it must have either a zero or a negative AFN.

Question 28

Fairchild Garden Supply expects $600 million of sales this year, and it forecasts a 15% increase for next year. The CFO uses this equation to forecast inventory requirements at different levels of sales: Inventories = $30.2 + 0.25(Sales). All dollars are in millions. What is the projected inventory turnover ratio for the coming year?

A) 3.40
B) 3.57
C) 3.75
D) 3.94
E) 4.14

Question 29

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

A) When we use the AFN equation, we assume that the ratios of assets and liabilities to sales (A0*/S0 and L0*/S0) vary from year to year in a stable, predictable manner.
B) When fixed assets are added in large, discrete units as a company grows, the assumption of constant ratios is more appropriate than if assets are relatively small and can be added in small increments as sales grow.
C) Firms whose fixed assets are "lumpy" frequently have excess capacity, and this should be accounted for in the financial forecasting process.
D) For a firm that uses lumpy assets, it is impossible to have small increases in sales without expanding fixed assets.
E) Regression techniques cannot be used in situations where excess capacity or economies of scale exist.

Question 30

Last year Godinho Corp. had $250 million of sales, and it had $75 million of fixed assets that were being operated at 80% of capacity. In millions, how large could sales have been if the company had operated at full capacity?

A) $312.5
B) $328.1
C) $344.5
D) $361.8
E) $379.8

Question 31

Last year Wei Guan Inc. had $350 million of sales, and it had $270 million of fixed assets that were used at 65% of capacity. In millions, by how much could Wei Guan's sales increase before it is required to increase its fixed assets?

A) $170.09
B) $179.04
C) $188.46
D) $197.88
E) $207.78

Question 32

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

A) Any forecast of financial requirements involves determining how much money the firm will need, and this need is determined by adding together increases in assets and spontaneous liabilities and then subtracting operating income.
B) The AFN equation for forecasting funds requirements requires only a forecast of the firm's balance sheet. Although a forecasted income statement may help clarify the results, income statement data are not essential because funds needed relate only to the balance sheet.
C) Dividends are paid with cash taken from the accumulated retained earnings account, hence dividend policy does not affect the AFN forecast.
D) A negative AFN indicates that retained earnings and spontaneous capital are far more than sufficient to finance the additional assets needed.
E) If assets and spontaneously generated liabilities are not projected to grow at the same rate as sales, then the AFN method will provide more accurate forecasts than the projected financial statement method.

Question 33

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

A) Once a firm has defined its purpose, scope, and objectives, it must develop a strategy or strategies for achieving its goals. The statement of corporate strategies sets forth detailed plans rather than broad approaches for achieving a firm's goals.
B) A firm's corporate purpose states the general philosophy of the business and provides managers with specific operational objectives.
C) Operating plans provide management with detailed implementation guidance, consistent with the corporate strategy, to help meet the corporate objectives. These operating plans can be developed for any time horizon, but many companies use a 5-year horizon.
D) A firm's mission statement defines its lines of business and geographic area of operations.
E) The corporate scope is a condensed version of the entire set of strategic plans.

Question 34

A company expects sales to increase during the coming year, and it is using the AFN equation to forecast the additional capital that it must raise. Which of the following conditions would cause the AFN to increase?

A) The company previously thought its fixed assets were being operated at full capacity, but now it learns that it actually has excess capacity.
B) The company increases its dividend payout ratio.
C) The company begins to pay employees monthly rather than weekly.
D) The company's profit margin increases.
E) The company decides to stop taking discounts on purchased materials.

Question 35

Last year Handorf-Zhu Inc. had $850 million of sales, and it had $425 million of fixed assets that were used at only 60% of capacity. What is the maximum sales growth rate the company could achieve before it had to increase its fixed assets?

A) 54.30%
B) 57.16%
C) 60.17%
D) 63.33%
E) 66.67%

Question 36

Which of the following is NOT one of the steps taken in the financial planning process?

A) Assumptions are made about future levels of sales, costs, and interest rates for use in the forecast.
B) The entire financial plan is reexamined, assumptions are reviewed, and the management team considers how additional changes in operations might improve results.
C) Projected ratios are calculated and analyzed.
D) Develop a set of projected financial statements.
E) Consult with key competitors about the optimal set of prices to charge, i.e., the prices that will maximize profits for our firm and its competitors.