Deck 12: Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Analysis

Question 1

Which of the following statements is true of a triangular distribution?

A) We are required to know only the smallest and largest possible values that the variable might assume.
B) These distributions depend on multiple parameters that one can easily identify based on managerial knowledge and judgment.
C) The distribution has a limited range and can be skewed in either direction.
D) The distribution is very positively skewed, with no negative values.

Answer 1

C

Question 2

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the cost difference upper cutoff in thousands of dollars if the likelihood is 75%?

A) approximately 46
B) approximately 28
C) approximately 32
D) approximately 59

Answer 2

approximately 32

Question 3

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the cost difference lower cutoff in thousands of dollars if the likelihood is 60%?

A) approximately 13.56
B) approximately 22.45
C) approximately 29.67
D) approximately 38.97

Answer 3

approximately 13.56

Question 4

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the value of mode obtained from the simulation results?

A) $28,435
B) $22,485
C) $27,198
D) $25,394

Question 5

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the standard deviation obtained from the simulation results of the net present value? [Hint: Choose the approximate value.]

A) $204,868,924
B) $162,135,408
C) $182,992,245
D) $138,134,040

Question 6

Why is the ROUND function used in Excel?

A) to ensure that the values generated are whole numbers
B) to ensure that the values generated are multiples of ten
C) to ensure that the values generated are always positive
D) to ensure that the values are even numbers

Question 7

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the value of mean obtained from the simulation results? [Hint: Choose the nearest answer]

A) $18,385
B) $21,608
C) $14,894
D) $23,946

Question 8

How does the Risk Solver Platform define an uncertain function cell?

A) It is a cell that contains a triangular distribution function.
B) It is a cell in which a distribution of output values is created from the model.
C) It is a cell in which an uncertain variable is used to define a distribution.
D) It is a cell that can only be defined by discrete distributions.

Question 9

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the value of standard deviation obtained from the simulation results?

A) $9,175
B) $7,884
C) $3,860
D) $12,870

Question 10

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the coefficient of variation obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) 1.78392
B) -2.23958
C) -1.36659
D) 2.87645

Question 11

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the risk that the net present value over the 5 years will not be positive?

A) approximately 40%
B) approximately 57%
C) approximately 24%
D) approximately 77%

Question 12

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the expected value margin obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) 0.864
B) -0.726
C) 0.343
D) -0.467

Question 13

Which of the following best defines Monte Carlo simulation?

A) It is a tool for building statistical models that characterize relationships among a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
B) It is a collection of techniques that seeks to group or segment a collection of objects into subsets.
C) It is the process of selecting values of decision variables that minimizes or maximizes some quantity of interest.
D) It is the process of generating random values for uncertain inputs in a model and computing the output variables of interest.

Question 14

Monte Carlo sampling differs from Latin Hypercube sampling in that the Monte Carlo sampling .

A) results in a more even distribution of output values
B) uses the entire range of the distribution in a more consistent manner
C) selects random variates independently over the entire range of possible values of the distribution
D) uses an uncertain variable whose probability distribution is divided into intervals of equal probability

Question 15

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the value of mean absolute deviation obtained from the simulation results?

A) $10,893
B) $3,476
C) $7,443
D) $5,885

Question 16

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Consider the following spreadsheet for an outsourcing decision model. $\begin{array}{|l|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } \\\hline 1 & \text { OutsourcingDecision Model } & \\\hline 2 & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & \\\hline 4 & & \\\hline 5 & \text { Manufactured in-house } & \\\hline 6 & \text { Fixed cost } & \$ 60,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit variable cost } & \$ 130 \\\hline 8 & & \\\hline 9 & \text { Purchased from supplier } & \\\hline 10 & \text { Unit cost } & \$ 165 \\\hline 11 & & \\\hline 12 & \text { Demand volume } & 1,000 \\\hline 13 & \\\hline 14 & \text { Model } \\\hline 15 & \\\hline 16 & \text { Total manufacturing cost } \\\hline 17 & \text { Total purchased cost } \\\hline 18 & \\\hline 19 & \text { Difference } \\\hline 20 & \text { Decision } \\\hline\end{array}$ We assume that the production (demand) volume is normally distributed with a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. For the unit cost, select the triangular distribution. It has a minimum value of $150, most likely value of $165, and a maximum value of $190. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 5,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 1. Run the simulation and answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the expected loss determined from the simulation results?

A) $(78)
B) $(120)
C) $(60)
D) $(47)

Question 17

Latin Hypercube sampling differs from Monte Carlo sampling in that the Latin Hypercube sampling .

A) selects random variates independently over the entire range of possible values of the distribution
B) uses an uncertain variable whose probability distribution is divided into intervals of equal probability
C) is used for evaluating the model performance under various what-if scenarios
D) achieves less accurate forecast statistics for a fixed number of trials

Question 18

Which of the following is a parameter in the Normal Distribution Dialog of the Risk Solver Platform?

A) maximum value
B) minimum value
C) most likely value
D) mean

Question 19

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the expected loss ratio obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) 93.50%
B) 72.45%
C) 67.32%
D) 86.32%

Question 20

Which option in Risk Solver Platform allows you to choose the number of times that random values can be generated for the uncertain cells in the model?

A) Trials per Simulation
B) Simulations to Run
C) Only Run
D) Sim.Random Seed

Question 21

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the correlation of the R&D cost with the NPV with reference to the sensitivity chart?

A) -0.404
B) 0.028
C) 0.908
D) -0.194

Question 22

If a simulation has multiple output variables that are related to one another, the distributions of all output variables can be viewed on a single Risk Solver Platform chart called a(n) .

A) trend chart
B) sensitivity chart
C) overlay chart
D) box-whisker chart

Question 23

The Risk Solver Platform chart shows the minimum, first quartile, median, third quartile, and maximum values in a data set graphically.

A) trend
B) sensitivity
C) overlay
D) box-whisker

Question 24

Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. $\begin{array}{|l|l|c|c|l|c|}\hline &{\text { A }} & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Newsvendor Model } & & & \begin{array}{l}\text { Historical } \\\text { Candy Sales }\end{array} &\$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 && \text { Data } & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 && & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Sellingprice } & \$ 18.00 && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discount price } & \$ 9.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Demand } & 44 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & & & 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & & & 48 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 22 & & & \text { Average Profit } & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-What is the value of mean absolute deviation?

A) $8.91
B) $5.45
C) $12.35
D) $15.64

Question 25

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What cumulative profit in the fifth year is likely to be realized with a probability of 0.50?

A) $78,244,098
B) $101,970,955
C) $144,058,696
D) $203,676,827

Question 26

The Risk Solver Platform feature allows you to determine the influence that each uncertain model input has individually on an output variable based on its correlation with the output variable.

A) trend chart
B) sensitivity chart
C) overlay chart
D) box-whisker chart

Question 27

Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s).
Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } &{\text { D }} & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Hotel Overbooking Model } & & & \text { Demand } & \text { Probability } \\\hline 2 & & & & 290 & 0.03 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 295 & 0.05 \\\hline 4 & & && 300 & 0.08 \\\hline 5 & \text { Rooms av ailable } & 350 && 305 & 0.12 \\\hline 6 & \text { Price } & \$ 120 & & 310 & 0.15 \\\hline 7 & \text { Overbooking cost } & \$ 100 && 315 & 0.20 \\\hline 8 && & & 320 & 0.15 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 325 & 0.10 \\\hline 10 & & & & 330 & 0.05 \\\hline 11 & \text { Reserv ation limit } & 350 && 335 & 0.04 \\\hline 12 & \text { Customer demand } & 320 && 340 & 0.02 \\\hline 13 & \text { Reservations made } & & &345 & 0.01 \\\hline 14 & \text { Cancellations } & 15 \\\hline 15 & \text { Customer arrivals } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Overbooked customers } & \\\hline 18 & \text { Net revenue } & \\\hline\end{array}$ Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-With respect to B12, what is the range of weights given in the Parameters section in the Discrete dialog?

A) $E$2:$E$13
B) $D$2:$D$8
C) $D$2:$D$13
D) $E$2:$E$8

Question 28

Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s).
Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } &{\text { D }} & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Hotel Overbooking Model } & & & \text { Demand } & \text { Probability } \\\hline 2 & & & & 290 & 0.03 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 295 & 0.05 \\\hline 4 & & && 300 & 0.08 \\\hline 5 & \text { Rooms av ailable } & 350 && 305 & 0.12 \\\hline 6 & \text { Price } & \$ 120 & & 310 & 0.15 \\\hline 7 & \text { Overbooking cost } & \$ 100 && 315 & 0.20 \\\hline 8 && & & 320 & 0.15 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 325 & 0.10 \\\hline 10 & & & & 330 & 0.05 \\\hline 11 & \text { Reserv ation limit } & 350 && 335 & 0.04 \\\hline 12 & \text { Customer demand } & 320 && 340 & 0.02 \\\hline 13 & \text { Reservations made } & & &345 & 0.01 \\\hline 14 & \text { Cancellations } & 15 \\\hline 15 & \text { Customer arrivals } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Overbooked customers } & \\\hline 18 & \text { Net revenue } & \\\hline\end{array}$ Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-With respect to B14, what should the number of trials correspond to in the Parameters section of the Binomial dialog?

A) reservation limit
B) customer demand
C) reservations made
D) customer arrivals

Question 29

Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s).
Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } &{\text { D }} & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Hotel Overbooking Model } & & & \text { Demand } & \text { Probability } \\\hline 2 & & & & 290 & 0.03 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 295 & 0.05 \\\hline 4 & & && 300 & 0.08 \\\hline 5 & \text { Rooms av ailable } & 350 && 305 & 0.12 \\\hline 6 & \text { Price } & \$ 120 & & 310 & 0.15 \\\hline 7 & \text { Overbooking cost } & \$ 100 && 315 & 0.20 \\\hline 8 && & & 320 & 0.15 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 325 & 0.10 \\\hline 10 & & & & 330 & 0.05 \\\hline 11 & \text { Reserv ation limit } & 350 && 335 & 0.04 \\\hline 12 & \text { Customer demand } & 320 && 340 & 0.02 \\\hline 13 & \text { Reservations made } & & &345 & 0.01 \\\hline 14 & \text { Cancellations } & 15 \\\hline 15 & \text { Customer arrivals } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Overbooked customers } & \\\hline 18 & \text { Net revenue } & \\\hline\end{array}$ Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-Which of the following cells is defined as an output cell?

A) B13
B) B14
C) B15
D) B17

Question 30

The Risk Solver Platform feature allows you to superimpose the frequency distributions from selected forecasts on one chart in order to compare differences and similarities that might not be apparent.

A) trend chart
B) sensitivity chart
C) overlay chart
D) box-whisker chart

Question 31

Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. $\begin{array}{|l|l|c|c|l|c|}\hline &{\text { A }} & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Newsvendor Model } & & & \begin{array}{l}\text { Historical } \\\text { Candy Sales }\end{array} &\$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 && \text { Data } & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 && & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Sellingprice } & \$ 18.00 && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discount price } & \$ 9.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Demand } & 44 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & & & 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & & & 48 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 22 & & & \text { Average Profit } & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-What is the value of mean profit?

A) $255.90
B) $251.45
C) $245.98
D) $264.00

Question 32

Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s).
Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } &{\text { D }} & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Hotel Overbooking Model } & & & \text { Demand } & \text { Probability } \\\hline 2 & & & & 290 & 0.03 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 295 & 0.05 \\\hline 4 & & && 300 & 0.08 \\\hline 5 & \text { Rooms av ailable } & 350 && 305 & 0.12 \\\hline 6 & \text { Price } & \$ 120 & & 310 & 0.15 \\\hline 7 & \text { Overbooking cost } & \$ 100 && 315 & 0.20 \\\hline 8 && & & 320 & 0.15 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 325 & 0.10 \\\hline 10 & & & & 330 & 0.05 \\\hline 11 & \text { Reserv ation limit } & 350 && 335 & 0.04 \\\hline 12 & \text { Customer demand } & 320 && 340 & 0.02 \\\hline 13 & \text { Reservations made } & & &345 & 0.01 \\\hline 14 & \text { Cancellations } & 15 \\\hline 15 & \text { Customer arrivals } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Overbooked customers } & \\\hline 18 & \text { Net revenue } & \\\hline\end{array}$ Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.

-With respect to B12, what is the range for values given in the Parameters section in the Discrete dialog?

A) $E$2:$E$13
B) $D$2:$D$8
C) $D$2:$D$13
D) $E$2:$E$8

Question 33

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What is the correlation of the market size with the NPV with reference to the sensitivity chart?

A) 0.043
B) 0.888
C) -0.341
D) -0.026

Question 34

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-With reference to the trend chart, which year shows the highest uncertainty in forecasting the future?

A) Year 1
B) Year 3
C) Year 4
D) Year 5

Question 35

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-What are the chances that the product will show a cumulative net profit in the fourth year?

A) approximately 25%
B) approximately 18%
C) approximately 11%
D) approximately 32%

Question 36

Use the information below to answer the following question(s). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|c|l|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline &\text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1&\text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } \\\hline 4 & \\\hline 5 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 &2&3&4&5\\\hline 18&\text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% \\\hline 19&\text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20&\text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } & \\\hline 23 & & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } & \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28 & \\\hline 29 & \text { Net present value } \\\hline\end{array}$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.

-With reference to the trend chart, which year shows the highest mean net cumulative profit?

A) Year 1
B) Year 2
C) Year 4
D) Year 5

Question 37

Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. $\begin{array}{|l|l|c|c|l|c|}\hline &{\text { A }} & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Newsvendor Model } & & & \begin{array}{l}\text { Historical } \\\text { Candy Sales }\end{array} &\$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 && \text { Data } & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 && & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Sellingprice } & \$ 18.00 && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discount price } & \$ 9.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Demand } & 44 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & & & 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & & & 48 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 22 & & & \text { Average Profit } & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-What is the value of mode?

A) $228
B) $245
C) $255
D) $264

Question 38

Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. $\begin{array}{|l|l|c|c|l|c|}\hline &{\text { A }} & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Newsvendor Model } & & & \begin{array}{l}\text { Historical } \\\text { Candy Sales }\end{array} &\$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 && \text { Data } & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 && & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Sellingprice } & \$ 18.00 && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discount price } & \$ 9.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Demand } & 44 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & & & 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & & & 48 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 22 & & & \text { Average Profit } & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-What is the purchase quantity lower cutoff if the likelihood is 75%?

A) 264
B) 255
C) 246
D) 228

Question 39

Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. $\begin{array}{|l|l|c|c|l|c|}\hline &{\text { A }} & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Newsvendor Model } & & & \begin{array}{l}\text { Historical } \\\text { Candy Sales }\end{array} &\$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 && \text { Data } & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 && & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Sellingprice } & \$ 18.00 && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discount price } & \$ 9.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Demand } & 44 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & & & 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & & & 48 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 22 & & & \text { Average Profit } & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-What is the value of standard deviation?

A) $12.50
B) $10.99
C) $15.86
D) $20.25

Question 40

Answer the following question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform (5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
Consider the spreadsheet for a Newsvendor Model. $\begin{array}{|l|l|c|c|l|c|}\hline &{\text { A }} & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Newsvendor Model } & & & \begin{array}{l}\text { Historical } \\\text { Candy Sales }\end{array} &\$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 && \text { Data } & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 && & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Sellingprice } & \$ 18.00 && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discount price } & \$ 9.00 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Demand } & 44 && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & & & 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & & & 48 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 22 & & & \text { Average Profit } & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-Which of the following cells is defined as the uncertain function cell?

A) B12
B) B14
C) B15
D) B17

Question 41

A normal distribution has a limited range and can be skewed in either direction.

Question 42

Explain the process of running a simulation using Risk Solver Platform.

Question 43

Explain the concept of the "flaw of averages."

Question 44

Using an empirical distribution precludes sampling values outside the range of the actual data.

Question 45

Monte Carlo simulation is an inappropriate tool to analyze cash budgets because of the inherent uncertainty of the sales forecasts on which most cash budgets are based.

Question 46

What are three types of Risk Solver Platform charts used to obtain multiple simulation results?

Question 47

Uniform or triangular distributions are used in the absence of data.

Question 48

What is Monte Carlo simulation?

Question 49

What are the benefits of a Risk Solver Platform sensitivity chart?

Question 50

As Monte Carlo simulation is essentially statistical sampling, the larger the number of trials used, the more precise is the result.