Deck 6: Assessing and Preparing for Project Uncertainties

Question 1

Members of a project team have developed a schedule for an upcoming IT project. They observe that two activities, A. Hardware Design and B. Software Design, must be complete before a third activity, C. Testing, can begin. Hardware and Software Design share the same predecessor task, and each one is estimated to have a duration of 4 weeks. Based on historical data, team members estimate that activity A and activity B each has an 80% chance of finishing within the estimated time frame. Which of the following is true?

A) Conjunctive event bias might cause the team to underestimate the likelihood that A and B will be completed within 4 weeks. i.e., they will think it is less likely than it really is.)
B) The likelihood of A and B both finishing within 4 weeks would be 90%.
C) The likelihood of A and B both finishing within 4 weeks would be 64%.
D) Conjunctive event bias might cause the team to overestimate the likelihood that A and B will be completed within 4 weeks. i.e., they will think it is more likely than it really is.)
E) A and B only
F) C and D only

Answer 1

C and D only

Question 2

Which of the following methods is best suited for use in uncertainty assessment when team members are located at different sites and cannot meet face-to-face?

A) Delphi method
B) Tabletop
C) Gut feel
D) Risk-response matrix
E) C and D only

Answer 2

Delphi method

Question 3

A member of a project team has recently experienced a computer system failure that shut down his previous company's operations for a week. He directs the team's attention to this possibility on a new project and becomes concerned that the team is not taking this risk as seriously as he is. Although he might be correct to be so concerned, he also might be subject to which of the following biases?

A) Gambler's fallacy
B) Availability heuristics
C) Risky shift
D) Conjunctive event bias
E) High anxiety bias

Answer 3

Availability heuristics

Question 4

When is the best time for project team members to engage in a detailed analysis of potential uncertainties?

A) Just before they develop the WBS
B) After they have developed the WBS
C) After they have created the detailed schedule
D) While they are setting up the monitoring system
E) Before they select the project

Question 5

Which of the following is NOT a simulation tool?

A) Physical mock-up
B) Dress rehearsal
C) Monte Carlo
D) Tabletop exercise
E) None of the above: all are simulation tools

Question 6

Which of the following does a team typically consider during uncertainty assessment?

A) Favorable uncertainties
B) Unfavorable uncertainties
C) Statistical probability of the occurrence of each uncertainty
D) Unknown unknowns
E) A and B only
F) C and D only

Question 7

RPNs Risk Priority Numbers) are used to calculate risk for which assessment tool?

A) Risk mapping
B) FMEA
C) Gut-feel method
D) Delphi method
E) None of the above

Question 8

Which of the following is a category considered to be a typical source of project uncertainty?

A) Unknown unknowns
B) Contingencies
C) Business environment
D) Schedule
E) Technical
F) All of the above
G) C and E only

Question 9

A fishbone diagram, also known as an Ishikawa diagram, is used to identify which of the following during uncertainty analysis?

A) Causes of risk
B) Possible solutions to problems
C) Likelihood of risk
D) Impact of risk
E) Level of risk tolerance
F) All of the above

Question 10

A team planning for the market launch of a new video game has employed FMEA to assess the relative importance of possible risks. One risk they identified, failure of the logistics system to deliver games to key retailers by the promised date, produced the following scores based on team input:
$\begin{array}{ll}\text { Severity: } & 9 \\\text { Likelihood: } & 5 \\\text { Detection Difficulty: } & 1\end{array}$
The RPN for this risk would be:

A) 45
B) 15
C) 9
D) 450
E) 44

Question 11

Which of the following uncertainty assessment tools is used primarily for evaluating the relative significance of unfavorable or negative risks in a technical environment?

A) Delphi method
B) Risk-response matrix
C) FMEA
D) Gut-feel method
E) B and D only
F) None of the above

Question 12

During the dot-voting process for the Gut Feel Method of uncertainty assessment:

A) Team members should agree as a group on the likelihood of an uncertainty before affixing dots next to the sticky note representing it.
B) The facilitator should listen to each person's view about the potential impact of a particular uncertainty, then affix a dot that represents his or her interpretation of the team's collective opinion.
C) Team members work silently to affix their own dots and refrain from talking with or attempting to influence others.
D) The work is done virtually and team members are not in the same room or location during this part of the process.
E) The color of the dot used to convey likelihood for any given risk is determined by averaging numerical ratings provided by individual team members.

Question 13

The government of an unnamed country has assigned a project team to initiate and run a program to create jobs. The program will include job training, career counseling, unemployment payments, and hiring incentives for employers. During the team's risk brainstorming session, members identified several things that could go wrong during project delivery. A major concern that came to the surface was that program funding could be cut before their efforts had the opportunity to bear significant results. They viewed this possible risk as having a monumental potential impact on the project i.e., program cancellation and a major setback in job creation). However, they viewed the risk as having a relatively low likelihood of occurrence. If the team were to position this risk on a traditional risk matrix during a risk mapping exercise, where would it be most appropriately placed?

A) Green zone
B) Red zone
C) Yellow zone
D) Orange zone
E) Blue zone

Question 14

Members of a project team have used FMEA to calculate the RPN for one of the risks it has identified. The RPN is 200. Which of the following combinations could have produced this score?

A) Severity: 50, Likelihood: 100, Detection Difficulty: 50
B) Severity: 100, Likelihood: 2, Detection Difficulty: 1
C) Severity: 50, Likelihood: 2, Detection Difficulty: 10
D) Severity: 199, Likelihood: 1, Detection Difficulty: 0
E) Severity: 5, Likelihood: 5, Detection Difficulty: 8
F) B and E both are possible
G) A and D are both possible