Deck 6: Analytical Methods

Question 1

Which of the following structured analytic techniques does the intelligence community use?

A) Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
B) Key Assumptions Check
C) Scenarios
D) All of the above

Answer 1

D

Question 2

In an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, facts are assessed by:

A) Reliability and validity
B) Possibility and fact
C) Credibility and impact
D) Quality and consistency

Answer 2

C

Question 3

Questioning every conclusion or fact and proposing alternative hypotheses is a characteristic of:

A) Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
B) High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis
C) Key Assumptions Check
D) Devil's Advocacy

Answer 3

D

Question 4

Of the following, which is NOT a key area of analytical tradecraft?

A) Critical thinking
B) Collection
C) Collaboration
D) Structured analytical techniques

Question 5

Critical thinking means:

A) Thinking outside the box
B) Thinking about urgent, dangerous issues
C) Thinking by skillfully analyzing, assessing, and reconstructing
D) Both A and C

Question 6

Match the levels of confidence used in evaluating intelligence products:
-Information is credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroboration to warrant higher level of confidence.

A) High Confidence
B) Moderate Confidence
C) Low Confidence

Question 7

Match the levels of confidence used in evaluating intelligence products:
-Judgments based on high-quality information and that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment.

A) High Confidence
B) Moderate Confidence
C) Low Confidence

Question 8

Match the levels of confidence used in evaluating intelligence products:
-Information credibility and/or plausibility is questionable. Or information is too poorly corroborated to make solid conclusions analytically.

A) High Confidence
B) Moderate Confidence
C) Low Confidence

Question 9

It is generally best to conduct a Key Assumptions Check at the end of analysis to ensure all your assumptions are correct

Question 10

According to Canadian intelligence official Gudmund Thompson, for analysts to exhibit rigor they should possess four characteristics. What are they?

Question 11

Great emphasis is placed on what three areas of analytical tradecraft?

Question 12

Explain how to conduct a key assumptions check, and identify why such a process helps to improve analysis.

Question 13

List the "Select Intellectual Standards" established by the Defense Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Analysis.

Question 14

A __________________ is a potential explanation or conclusion that is to be tested by collecting and presenting evidence.

Question 15

Explain the steps of scenario planning.

Question 16

Collaboration has recently become a high priority within the IC. Why is collaboration among agencies important? Why is it oftentimes difficult to achieve?

Question 17

The text gives the example of the tragedy in Waco, TX involving David Koresh and the Branch Davidians when explaining the importance of a key assumptions check. What is a key assumptions check? What steps must an analyst take to conduct this analysis? Describe another example in history where a key assumptions check could have possibly eliminated a tragic outcome.

Question 18

The use of Structured Analytical Techniques is relatively new in the Intelligence Community. Do you think their use is a good idea? Why or why not?