Deck 20: Computer simulation with crystal ball

Question 1

The normal distribution is a good choice when all values within a range are equally likely

Answer 1

False

Question 2

The geometric distribution describes the number of times an event occurs in a fixed number of trials

Answer 2

False

Question 3

The three- and four-parameter distributions provide the most flexibility when trying to fit a curve to a situation

Answer 3

True

Question 4

The sensitivity chart in Crystal Ball indicates the increase in the forecast cell value per unit increase in the assumption cell

Question 5

A danger of using the normal distribution is that values can fall below zero

Question 6

The custom distribution in Crystal Ball allows only discrete distributions to be entered

Question 7

The exponential distribution is widely used to describe the time between random events

Question 8

The distribution used for the assumption cells is one of the options to be set in the Run Preferences for Crystal Ball

Question 9

A forecast cell refers to a random input cell

Question 10

The sensitivity chart in Crystal Ball indicates how strongly various assumption cells influence the forecast cell

Question 11

The negative binomial distribution describes the number of trials until an event occurs n times

Question 12

The normal distribution has a fixed upper and lower bound

Question 13

The number of trials is one of the options to be set in the Run Preferences for Crystal Ball

Question 14

Crystal Ball can be used to fit a continuous distribution to data

Question 15

The triangular distribution has a fixed upper and lower bound

Question 16

Increasing the number of trials increases the accuracy of a simulation

Question 17

The binomial distribution describes the number of times an event occurs in a fixed number of trials

Question 18

The mean standard error gives an indication of the accuracy of the estimated mean

Question 19

A danger of using the lognormal distribution is that values can fall below zero

Question 20

The Weibull and beta distribution are examples of two-parameter distributions

Question 21

The more trials that are run,the lower the mean standard error will become

Question 22

Which of the following charts shows a histogram giving the relative frequency of the various output values in the forecast cell?

A)Frequency chart
B)Statistics table
C)Percentiles table
D)Cumulative chart
E)Reverse cumulative chart

Question 23

The Solver Table can be used by Crystal Ball to systematically investigate a set of values for a decision variable in a simulation model

Question 24

A distribution is chosen from the Distribution Gallery for which type of cell?

A)An assumption cell
B)A decision variable
C)A forecast cell
D)An output cell
E)None of the above

Question 25

Which of the following provide the mean,median,standard deviation,range,etc for the forecast cell in Crystal Ball

A)Frequency chart
B)Statistics table
C)Percentiles table
D)Cumulative chart
E)Reverse cumulative chart

Question 26

When applying simulation to an inventory problem,which of the following is the most appropriate choice for the forecast cell

A)The total profit
B)The holding cost per unit
C)The demand
D)All of the above
E)None of the above

Question 27

The Decision Table tool in Crystal Ball can be used to systematically investigate a set of values for a decision variable in a simulation model

Question 28

Which of the following is not a characteristic of the triangular distribution?

A)Some value is the most likely
B)Values close to the most likely value are more common
C)The most likely value is the mean
D)It can be asymmetric
E)It has a fixed upper and lower bound

Question 29

OptQuest can not handle constraints in a simulation model

Question 30

OptQuest is guaranteed to find the optimal solution to a simulation problem

Question 31

Which of the following are advantages of computer simulation over analytical methods like PERT/CPM for predicting the probability that a project will complete by a deadline?

A)It does not need to make as many simplifying assumptions
B)It is more flexible about which probability distributions can be used
C)It provides a solution more quickly
D)All of the above
E)a and b only

Question 32

Which of the following is a random input cell in Crystal Ball?

A)An assumption cell
B)A decision variable
C)A forecast cell
D)An output cell
E)None of the above

Question 33

Which of the following is not a characteristic of the normal distribution?

A)Some value is the most likely
B)Values closest to the mean are more likely
C)It must be symmetric
D)Values cannot fall below zero
E)Extreme values are possible,but rare

Question 34

Which of the following is not a step required to perform a simulation with Crystal Ball?

A)Define the random input cells
B)Define the output cells to forecast
C)Set the run preferences
D)Develop the spreadsheet model
E)All are steps required to perform a simulation with Crystal Ball

Question 35

Which chart indicates the trend in forecast values as a particular decision variable is varied?

A)Frequency chart
B)Trend chart
C)Cumulative chart
D)Reverse cumulative chart
E)None of the above

Question 36

The sensitivity chart conveys which of the following?

A)The relative frequency of various forecast cell values
B)The increase in profit per unit increase in an assumption cell
C)It indicates how strongly various assumption cells influence the forecast cell
D)The mean profit
E)None of the above

Question 37

Which of the following is not one of the charts or tables provided by Crystal Ball?

A)Frequency chart
B)Statistics table
C)Reverse frequency chart
D)Cumulative chart
E)Percentiles table

Question 38

A trend chart shows the trend in profit values from trial to trial

Question 39

When applying simulation to an inventory problem,which of the following would be an assumption cell?

A)The total profit
B)The holding cost per unit
C)The demand
D)All of the above
E)None of the above

Question 40

The cell that represents the output of a computer simulation is referred to as:

A)an assumption cell
B)a decision variable
C)a forecast cell
D)a data cell
E)None of the above

Question 41

Which of the following distributions is widely used to describe the time between random events?

A)Uniform distribution
B)Exponential distribution
C)Poisson distribution
D)Normal distribution
E)None of the above

Question 42

Which of the following is not a characteristic of the lognormal distribution?

A)Some value is the most likely
B)It is negatively skewed (above the mean more likely)
C)Values cannot fall below zero
D)Extreme values (high end only)are possible,but rare
E)All of the above are characteristic of the lognormal distribution

Question 43

Which of the following are three-parameter distributions?

A)Weibull distribution
B)Normal distribution
C)Beta distribution
D)All of the above
E)a and c only

Question 44

Which of the following distributions describes the number of times an event occurs in a fixed number of trials?

A)Binomial distribution
B)Geometric distribution
C)Negative binomial distribution
D)Poisson distribution
E)None of the above

Question 45

OptQuest can be used to simultaneously optimize up to how many decision variables?

A)1
B)2
C)3
D)4
E)Many decision variables can be optimized simultaneously

Question 46

The Decision Table tool can simultaneously vary up to how many different decision variables?

A)1
B)2
C)3
D)4
E)Any number of decision variables

Question 47

Which of the following distributions describes the number of trials until an event occurs n times?

A)Binomial distribution
B)Geometric distribution
C)Negative binomial distribution
D)Poisson distribution
E)None of the above

Question 48

Which of the following distributions describes the number of trials until an event occurs?

A)Binomial distribution
B)Geometric distribution
C)Negative binomial distribution
D)Poisson distribution
E)None of the above

Question 49

Which of the following is not a characteristic of the uniform distribution?

A)It has a fixed minimum value
B)It has a fixed maximum value
C)Some value is the most likely
D)All of the above are characteristic of the uniform distribution
E)None of the above are characteristic of the uniform distribution

Question 50

Which of the following distributions describes the number of times an event occurs during a given period of time or space?

A)Uniform distribution
B)Exponential distribution
C)Poisson distribution
D)Normal distribution
E)None of the above

Question 51

Which of the following is not a good choice for run preferences when using OptQuest?

A)500 trials
B)Using a different sequence of random numbers
C)Latin Hypercube sampling method
D)Update forecast windows and check precision control every 50 trials
E)All are good choices when using OptQuest