Deck 6: Designing Global Supply Chain Networks
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Deck 6: Designing Global Supply Chain Networks
1
Appropriate flexibility is an effective approach for a global supply chain to deal with a variety of risks and uncertainties.Extra flexibility is always worth the cost.
False
2
Strategic planning and financial planning should be combined during supply chain network design.
True
3
Offshoring typically lowers labor,working capital and fixed costs but increases risk and freight costs.
False
4
In a complex decision tree,there are thousands of possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
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5
A firm may choose to build a flexible global supply chain even in the presence of little demand or supply uncertainty if certainty exists in exchange rates or prices.
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6
Simulation methods are very good at evaluating a decision where the path itself is decision dependent.
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7
Discounted cash flow (DCF)analysis evaluates the present value of any stream of future cash flows and allows management to compare two streams of cash flows in terms of their financial value.
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8
The present value of a stream of cash flows is what that stream is worth in today's dollars.
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9
The main advantage of simulation models is that they can provide low-cost evaluations of complex situations.
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10
When faced with uncertain conditions,it is always best to sign long-term contracts (because they are typically cheaper)and avoid all flexible capacity (because it is more expensive).
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11
The degree of demand and price uncertainty has a significant influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
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12
Decisions made during the supply chain design phase regarding significant investments in the supply chain,such as the number and size of plants to build,the number of trucks to purchase or lease,and whether to build or lease warehouse space,cannot be altered in the short term.
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13
If price and demand vary over time in a global network,flexible production capacity can be reconfigured to maximize profits in the new environment.
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14
The value of flexibility increases with an increase in uncertainty.
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15
A negative NPV for an option indicates that the option will lose money for the supply chain.
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16
The rate of return k is also referred to as the present value of capital.
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17
Financial analysis should be used as an input to decision making,not as the decision-making process.
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18
Long-term contracts for both warehousing and transportation requirements will be more effective if the demand and price of warehousing do not change in the future or if the price of warehousing goes up.
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19
In reality,demand and prices are highly uncertain and are likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
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20
During network design,managers need a methodology that allows them to estimate the certainty in their forecast of demand and price and then incorporate this certainty into the decision-making process.
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21
Which technique can be used to lower shipping costs if several components are being sourced globally from different locations?
A)Offshoring all components rather than a subset of them
B)Use of faster modes of transportation
C)Assembly and retail in offshored locations
D)Use of supplier hubs
A)Offshoring all components rather than a subset of them
B)Use of faster modes of transportation
C)Assembly and retail in offshored locations
D)Use of supplier hubs
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22
When evaluating the total cost of offshoring,the raw material costs
A)will usually increase.
B)will usually decrease.
C)could increase or decrease depending on sourcing.
D)will be eliminated.
A)will usually increase.
B)will usually decrease.
C)could increase or decrease depending on sourcing.
D)will be eliminated.
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23
A global supply chain with offshoring would tend to see metrics associated with which of these performance dimensions decline in performance?
A)Inventories
B)On time delivery
C)Supply chain visibility
D)Clarity of order communication
A)Inventories
B)On time delivery
C)Supply chain visibility
D)Clarity of order communication
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24
Decisions made during the supply chain design phase regarding significant investments in the supply chain,such as the number and size of plants to build,the number of trucks to purchase or lease,and whether to build or lease warehouse space,
A)are realigned every few weeks.
B)should be revisited quarterly.
C)only remain in place for a few weeks.
D)often remain in place for several years.
A)are realigned every few weeks.
B)should be revisited quarterly.
C)only remain in place for a few weeks.
D)often remain in place for several years.
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25
Which of these was NOT cited as a factor contributing to decreased attractiveness of offshoring to China over the period 2003 to 2008?
A)Increase in labor costs
B)Increase in transportation costs
C)Increase in labor content
D)Strengthening of Chinese yuan against the U.S.dollar
A)Increase in labor costs
B)Increase in transportation costs
C)Increase in labor content
D)Strengthening of Chinese yuan against the U.S.dollar
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26
A labor dispute is a risk driver to be considered during network design.What category does a "labor dispute" belong to?
A)Disruptions
B)Inventory risk
C)Systems risk
D)Capacity risk
A)Disruptions
B)Inventory risk
C)Systems risk
D)Capacity risk
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27
Based on the Accenture survey on sources of risk that affect global supply chain performance,which of the following was found to have affected the lowest percentage of supply chains?
A)shortage of skilled resources
B)currency fluctuation
C)inflexible supply chain technology
D)terrorist infiltration of cargo
A)shortage of skilled resources
B)currency fluctuation
C)inflexible supply chain technology
D)terrorist infiltration of cargo
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28
Based on the Accenture survey on sources of risk that affect global supply chain performance,which of the following was found to have affected the highest percentage of supply chains?
A)shortage of skilled resources
B)volatility of fuel prices
C)inflexible supply chain technology
D)customs delays
A)shortage of skilled resources
B)volatility of fuel prices
C)inflexible supply chain technology
D)customs delays
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29
The tailored strategy "Focus on low-cost,decentralized capacity for predictable demand" follows which risk mitigation strategy?
A)Get redundant suppliers.
B)Increase capacity.
C)Increase responsiveness.
D)Increase inventory.
A)Get redundant suppliers.
B)Increase capacity.
C)Increase responsiveness.
D)Increase inventory.
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30
A global supply chain with offshoring would tend to see metrics decline associated with which of these performance dimensions?
A)Working capital
B)On-time delivery
C)Stockouts
D)Product returns
A)Working capital
B)On-time delivery
C)Stockouts
D)Product returns
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31
A global supply chain with offshoring would tend to see which of these performance dimensions increase?
A)Labor costs
B)On time delivery
C)Supply chain visibility
D)Minimum order quantity
A)Labor costs
B)On time delivery
C)Supply chain visibility
D)Minimum order quantity
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32
Decisions made during the supply chain design phase regarding significant investments in the supply chain,such as the number and size of plants to build,the number of trucks to purchase or lease,and whether to build or lease warehouse space,
A)define the boundaries within which the supply chain must compete.
B)have little impact on how the supply chain must compete.
C)are irrelevant regarding how the supply chain will compete.
D)are the only consideration regarding how the supply chain will compete.
A)define the boundaries within which the supply chain must compete.
B)have little impact on how the supply chain must compete.
C)are irrelevant regarding how the supply chain will compete.
D)are the only consideration regarding how the supply chain will compete.
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33
Decisions made during the supply chain design phase regarding significant investments in the supply chain,such as the number and size of plants to build,the number of trucks to purchase or lease,and whether to build or lease warehouse space,
A)can be altered in the short term.
B)cannot be altered in the short term.
C)cannot be altered in the long term.
D)can only be altered in the short term.
A)can be altered in the short term.
B)cannot be altered in the short term.
C)cannot be altered in the long term.
D)can only be altered in the short term.
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34
The opportunities from globalization are often accompanied by
A)a lack of domestic opportunities.
B)the need to eliminate the accounting function.
C)significant additional risk.
D)the need to eliminate the logistics function.
A)a lack of domestic opportunities.
B)the need to eliminate the accounting function.
C)significant additional risk.
D)the need to eliminate the logistics function.
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35
One way to lower transportation costs of globally sourced production is to
A)use online ordering when possible.
B)redesign components for greater transport density.
C)increase the labor content of the components.
D)decrease the labor content of the components.
A)use online ordering when possible.
B)redesign components for greater transport density.
C)increase the labor content of the components.
D)decrease the labor content of the components.
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36
As Adam Smith put it so eloquently in the Wealth of Nations,"If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it,...
A)...it is only right that we should learn their method of production,so that we too can master the commodity..."
B)...then we would be well-served to include them in our supply chain..."
C)...better buy it from them with some part of our own industry..."
D)...we should barter with them or take it by force if they prove to be unreasonable..."
A)...it is only right that we should learn their method of production,so that we too can master the commodity..."
B)...then we would be well-served to include them in our supply chain..."
C)...better buy it from them with some part of our own industry..."
D)...we should barter with them or take it by force if they prove to be unreasonable..."
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37
Offshoring to low-cost countries is most attractive for products with
A)large production volume.
B)high variety.
C)low labor content.
D)a high ratio of transportation cost to product value.
A)large production volume.
B)high variety.
C)low labor content.
D)a high ratio of transportation cost to product value.
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38
A global supply chain with offshoring would tend to see which of these performance dimensions decrease?
A)Working capital
B)Hidden costs
C)Supply chain visibility
D)Product returns
A)Working capital
B)Hidden costs
C)Supply chain visibility
D)Product returns
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39
A global supply chain with offshoring
A)reduces the duration of the cash flow and reduces the length of the product flow.
B)increases the length of the product flow and increases the duration of the information flow.
C)increases the duration of the cash flow but reduces the duration of the information flow.
D)reduces the length of the product flow and reduces the length of the information flow.
A)reduces the duration of the cash flow and reduces the length of the product flow.
B)increases the length of the product flow and increases the duration of the information flow.
C)increases the duration of the cash flow but reduces the duration of the information flow.
D)reduces the length of the product flow and reduces the length of the information flow.
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40
Crossing international borders with offshored goods is most closely linked to a change in
A)unit cost.
B)quality.
C)product returns.
D)taxes and tariffs.
A)unit cost.
B)quality.
C)product returns.
D)taxes and tariffs.
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41
The decision with the highest NPV (net present value)will provide a supply chain with
A)the highest financial return.
B)the lowest financial return.
C)a reasonable financial return.
D)the least desirable financial return.
A)the highest financial return.
B)the lowest financial return.
C)a reasonable financial return.
D)the least desirable financial return.
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42
The NPV (net present value)of a cash stream that is equal to $100 per period for 5 periods with a rate of return of 12% per period would be
A)$360.48.
B)$382.98.
C)$403.73.
D)$416.51.
A)$360.48.
B)$382.98.
C)$403.73.
D)$416.51.
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43
What rate of return results in a present value of $432 for $250 received one year from now and another $250 received two years from now?
A)9.89%
B)10.32%
C)10.94%
D)11.37%
A)9.89%
B)10.32%
C)10.94%
D)11.37%
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44
The net present value (NPV)of a stream of cash flows is equal to
A)the sum of all cash flows for all periods being considered.
B)the sum of all cash flows for all periods being considered divided by the number of periods.
C)the average of all cash flows for all periods being considered multiplied by the number of periods.
D)the sum of all cash flows for all periods being considered discounted by the rate of return for each period.
A)the sum of all cash flows for all periods being considered.
B)the sum of all cash flows for all periods being considered divided by the number of periods.
C)the average of all cash flows for all periods being considered multiplied by the number of periods.
D)the sum of all cash flows for all periods being considered discounted by the rate of return for each period.
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45
The process of evaluating the present value of any stream of future cash flows so that management can compare two streams of cash flows in terms of their financial value is
A)annual cash flow (ACF)analysis.
B)discretionary cash flow (DCF)analysis.
C)discounted cash flow (DCF)analysis.
D)future cash flow (FCF)analysis.
A)annual cash flow (ACF)analysis.
B)discretionary cash flow (DCF)analysis.
C)discounted cash flow (DCF)analysis.
D)future cash flow (FCF)analysis.
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46
The discount factor used to obtain the present value of money in the next period where k represents the rate of return is
A)k.
B)1 + k.
C)1/(1 + k).
D)k /(1 + k).
A)k.
B)1 + k.
C)1/(1 + k).
D)k /(1 + k).
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47
The rate of return k is also referred to as the
A)discount rate.
B)hurdle rate.
C)opportunity cost of capital.
D)all of the above
A)discount rate.
B)hurdle rate.
C)opportunity cost of capital.
D)all of the above
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48
The present value of a future stream of cash flows is what that stream
A)was worth in yesterday's dollars.
B)is worth in today's dollars.
C)will be worth in future dollars.
D)might be worth in future dollars.
A)was worth in yesterday's dollars.
B)is worth in today's dollars.
C)will be worth in future dollars.
D)might be worth in future dollars.
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49
What type of network design is represented in the diagram? 
A)Dedicated network
B)Fully flexible network
C)Chained network with one long chain
D)Chained network with two long chains

A)Dedicated network
B)Fully flexible network
C)Chained network with one long chain
D)Chained network with two long chains
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50
As flexibility is increased,
A)the marginal benefit of additional flexibility is decreased.
B)the marginal benefit of additional flexibility is increased.
C)the total cost of flexibility is decreased.
D)the total flexibility is decreased.
A)the marginal benefit of additional flexibility is decreased.
B)the marginal benefit of additional flexibility is increased.
C)the total cost of flexibility is decreased.
D)the total flexibility is decreased.
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51
What type of network design is represented in the diagram? 
A)Dedicated network
B)Fully flexible network
C)Chained network with one long chain
D)Chained network with two long chains

A)Dedicated network
B)Fully flexible network
C)Chained network with one long chain
D)Chained network with two long chains
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52
When supply disruptions occur,
A)smaller chains outperform a network with one long chain.
B)one long chain outperforms a network with several smaller chains.
C)a dedicated network outperforms a network with one long chain.
D)a dedicated network outperforms a network with several smaller chains.
A)smaller chains outperform a network with one long chain.
B)one long chain outperforms a network with several smaller chains.
C)a dedicated network outperforms a network with one long chain.
D)a dedicated network outperforms a network with several smaller chains.
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53
The ability to produce a variety of products within a short period of time is called
A)modular flexibility.
B)chained flexibility.
C)volume flexibility.
D)mix flexibility.
A)modular flexibility.
B)chained flexibility.
C)volume flexibility.
D)mix flexibility.
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54
A negative NPV (net present value)for an option indicates that the option will
A)gain money for the supply chain.
B)lose money for the supply chain.
C)maximize profit for the supply chain.
D)minimize profit for the supply chain.
A)gain money for the supply chain.
B)lose money for the supply chain.
C)maximize profit for the supply chain.
D)minimize profit for the supply chain.
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55
What type of network design is represented in the diagram? 
A)Dedicated network
B)Fully flexible network
C)Chained network with one long chain
D)Chained network with two long chains

A)Dedicated network
B)Fully flexible network
C)Chained network with one long chain
D)Chained network with two long chains
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56
A chained network configuration means that
A)all plants in the network are capable of producing one product.
B)all plants in the network are capable of producing all products.
C)each plant in the network is capable of producing at least two products.
D)each plant in the network is capable of producing one product.
A)all plants in the network are capable of producing one product.
B)all plants in the network are capable of producing all products.
C)each plant in the network is capable of producing at least two products.
D)each plant in the network is capable of producing one product.
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57
Which of these is a disadvantage of a chained network configuration?
A)The fixed cost of building several small chains far exceeds the cost of building a single long chain.
B)They are effective when dealing with supply disruptions but ineffective when confronted with demand fluctuations.
C)They are incapable of producing the products they are designed for.
D)The effect of any fluctuation ripples to all facilities in the chain.
A)The fixed cost of building several small chains far exceeds the cost of building a single long chain.
B)They are effective when dealing with supply disruptions but ineffective when confronted with demand fluctuations.
C)They are incapable of producing the products they are designed for.
D)The effect of any fluctuation ripples to all facilities in the chain.
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58
A chained network with one long chain
A)is more flexible than a dedicated network and more costly than a fully flexible network.
B)is more flexible than a dedicated network and less costly than a fully flexible network.
C)is less flexible than a dedicated network and less costly than a fully flexible network.
D)is less flexible than a dedicated network but more costly than a fully flexible network.
A)is more flexible than a dedicated network and more costly than a fully flexible network.
B)is more flexible than a dedicated network and less costly than a fully flexible network.
C)is less flexible than a dedicated network and less costly than a fully flexible network.
D)is less flexible than a dedicated network but more costly than a fully flexible network.
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59
What rate of return results in a present value of $23 for $25 received one year from now?
A)7.8%
B)8.1%
C)8.4%
D)8.7%
A)7.8%
B)8.1%
C)8.4%
D)8.7%
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60
The present value of future cash flow is found by
A)locating the correct factor on a z-table.
B)using a discount factor.
C)plotting the function on a graph.
D)adding the total of all future cash flows.
A)locating the correct factor on a z-table.
B)using a discount factor.
C)plotting the function on a graph.
D)adding the total of all future cash flows.
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61
Uncertainty in demand and economic factors should be included in the financial evaluation of supply chain design decisions because
A)the exclusion of certainty may have a significant impact on this evaluation.
B)the exclusion of uncertainty will not have a significant impact on this evaluation.
C)the inclusion of certainty may have a significant impact on this evaluation.
D)the inclusion of uncertainty may have a significant impact on this evaluation.
A)the exclusion of certainty may have a significant impact on this evaluation.
B)the exclusion of uncertainty will not have a significant impact on this evaluation.
C)the inclusion of certainty may have a significant impact on this evaluation.
D)the inclusion of uncertainty may have a significant impact on this evaluation.
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62
The NPV (net present value)of a cash stream that is equal to $75 per period for 5 periods with a rate of return of 15% per period would be
A)$251.41.
B)$289.12.
C)$312.74.
D)$322.44.
A)$251.41.
B)$289.12.
C)$312.74.
D)$322.44.
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63
Scenario 6.1 - The Big Box
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Suppose the contractor has found some materials on Craigslist that can drop the construction cost of a large facility to $1,500,000.These materials cannot be used in the construction of the small facility,so its price remains as indicated in Scenario 6.1.Determine the likelihood of high demand that would make the decision maker indifferent between the two alternatives for a two-year time period.
A)1.0
B)0.72
C)0.92
D)0.86
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Suppose the contractor has found some materials on Craigslist that can drop the construction cost of a large facility to $1,500,000.These materials cannot be used in the construction of the small facility,so its price remains as indicated in Scenario 6.1.Determine the likelihood of high demand that would make the decision maker indifferent between the two alternatives for a two-year time period.
A)1.0
B)0.72
C)0.92
D)0.86
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64
Decision tree analysis is based on Bellman's principle,which states that for any choice of strategy in a given state,
A)the optimal strategy is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the first period.
B)the optimal strategy is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the last period.
C)the optimal strategy in the next period is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the last period.
D)the optimal strategy in the next period is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the next period.
A)the optimal strategy is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the first period.
B)the optimal strategy is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the last period.
C)the optimal strategy in the next period is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the last period.
D)the optimal strategy in the next period is the one that is selected if the entire analysis is assumed to begin in the next period.
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65
Scenario 6.1 - The Big Box
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the expected cost of operating a large facility for two years.
A)$810,000
B)$450,000
C)$405,000
D)$2,810,000
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the expected cost of operating a large facility for two years.
A)$810,000
B)$450,000
C)$405,000
D)$2,810,000
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66
The appropriate discount rate used in decision tree methodology
A)should be risk-adjusted,and risk may vary by period and decision node.
B)should be risk-adjusted,and risk may not vary by period and decision node.
C)should not be risk-adjusted,and risk may vary by period and decision node.
D)should not be risk-adjusted,and risk may not vary by period and decision node.
A)should be risk-adjusted,and risk may vary by period and decision node.
B)should be risk-adjusted,and risk may not vary by period and decision node.
C)should not be risk-adjusted,and risk may vary by period and decision node.
D)should not be risk-adjusted,and risk may not vary by period and decision node.
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67
For a global supply chain,exchange rates and inflation are
A)likely to vary over time in different locations.
B)not likely to vary over time in different locations.
C)not likely to vary over time in any locations.
D)likely to be stable over time in all locations.
A)likely to vary over time in different locations.
B)not likely to vary over time in different locations.
C)not likely to vary over time in any locations.
D)likely to be stable over time in all locations.
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68
Flexibility should be valued by taking into account uncertainty in demand and economic factors.In general,flexibility will tend to
A)decrease in value with a decrease in certainty.
B)increase in value with an increase in uncertainty.
C)decrease in value with an increase in uncertainty.
D)increase in value with an increase in certainty.
A)decrease in value with a decrease in certainty.
B)increase in value with an increase in uncertainty.
C)decrease in value with an increase in uncertainty.
D)increase in value with an increase in certainty.
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69
The degree of demand and price uncertainty has
A)no effect on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
B)a limited influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
C)a minor influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
D)a significant influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
A)no effect on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
B)a limited influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
C)a minor influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
D)a significant influence on the appropriate portfolio of long- and short-term warehousing space that a firm should carry.
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70
A recently-accredited College of Business discovers it is in dire financial trouble and wants to examine demand for services and costs to provide them next year.Market conditions may become more favorable,resulting in a 10% increase in enrollment,with a probability of 0.5,stay the same,with a probability of 0.3,or become less favorable,with a probability of 0.2 and a decrease in enrollment of 10%.There is a 0.9 probability that their costs to provide services will rise by 5% and a 0.1 probability that their costs will be the same.This year,they charge each of their 2000 students $3000 to take a full course load and spend $1500 on each student.
What is the revenue for the college if it experiences an increase in enrollment and an increase in their cost to provide services?
A)$4,000,000
B)$4,400,000
C)$5,465,000
D)$6,600,000
What is the revenue for the college if it experiences an increase in enrollment and an increase in their cost to provide services?
A)$4,000,000
B)$4,400,000
C)$5,465,000
D)$6,600,000
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71
Short-term contracts for both warehousing and transportation requirements will be more effective
A)if the demand and price of warehousing do not change in the future.
B)if the price of warehousing goes up in the future.
C)if either demand or the price of warehousing drops in the future.
D)only if demand drops in the future.
A)if the demand and price of warehousing do not change in the future.
B)if the price of warehousing goes up in the future.
C)if either demand or the price of warehousing drops in the future.
D)only if demand drops in the future.
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72
A decision tree is
A)a graphic device used to evaluate decisions under certainty.
B)a graphic device used to evaluate decisions under uncertainty.
C)a tabular device used to evaluate decisions under certainty.
D)a tabular device used to evaluate decisions under uncertainty.
A)a graphic device used to evaluate decisions under certainty.
B)a graphic device used to evaluate decisions under uncertainty.
C)a tabular device used to evaluate decisions under certainty.
D)a tabular device used to evaluate decisions under uncertainty.
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73
Scenario 6.1 - The Big Box
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the likelihood of high demand that would make the decision maker indifferent between the two alternatives for a two-year operating time.
A)0.86
B)0.72
C)0.28
D)0.14
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the likelihood of high demand that would make the decision maker indifferent between the two alternatives for a two-year operating time.
A)0.86
B)0.72
C)0.28
D)0.14
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74
A recently-accredited College of Business discovers it is in dire financial trouble and wants to examine demand for services and costs to provide them next year.Market conditions may become more favorable,resulting in a 10% increase in enrollment,with a probability of 0.5,stay the same,with a probability of 0.3,or become less favorable,with a probability of 0.2 and a decrease in enrollment of 10%.There is a 0.9 probability that their costs to provide services will rise by 5% and a 0.1 probability that their costs will be the same.This year,they charge each of their 2000 students $3000 to take a full course load and spend $1500 on each student.
What is the probability that the college experiences a decrease in enrollment and an increase in their cost to provide services?
A)0.45
B)0.27
C)0.18
D)0.02
What is the probability that the college experiences a decrease in enrollment and an increase in their cost to provide services?
A)0.45
B)0.27
C)0.18
D)0.02
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75
Scenario 6.1 - The Big Box
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the expected cost of operating a small facility for a period of two years.
A)$1,102,500
B)$1,005,500
C)$502,500
D)$2,205,000
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the expected cost of operating a small facility for a period of two years.
A)$1,102,500
B)$1,005,500
C)$502,500
D)$2,205,000
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76
Scenario 6.1 - The Big Box
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the total (operating and building)cost of the best alternative for a two year period.
A)$2,000,000
B)$1,200,000
C)$2,205,000
D)$2,810,000
Bahouth Ltd.is planning for the next two years of production and debating whether to construct a large cross-dock facility with 40 truck bays or a smaller one with 20 truck bays.The cost to build the large facility is $2 million and the cost to build the small one is $1.2 million.If they construct a large facility and demand is as high as they hope,then operating costs are $450,000 annually.If they construct a large facility and demand is low,then operating costs are $300,000.If they construct a small facility and demand is low,the operating costs are $275,000 but if they experience high demand,the operating cost of a small facility increases to $600,000.After having conducted some market research,they feel that the likelihood of high demand is 0.7 and the likelihood of small demand is 0.3.
Use the information from Scenario 6.1 to determine the total (operating and building)cost of the best alternative for a two year period.
A)$2,000,000
B)$1,200,000
C)$2,205,000
D)$2,810,000
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77
In reality,demand and prices are
A)highly certain and not likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
B)highly certain and likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
C)highly uncertain and not likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
D)highly uncertain and likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
A)highly certain and not likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
B)highly certain and likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
C)highly uncertain and not likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
D)highly uncertain and likely to fluctuate during the life of any supply chain decision.
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78
In a complex decision tree there are
A)only a few possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
B)less than thirty possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
C)thousands of possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
D)an infinite number of possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
A)only a few possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
B)less than thirty possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
C)thousands of possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
D)an infinite number of possible paths that may result from the first period to the last.
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79
Firms should use simulation for evaluating decisions when
A)underlying decision trees are simple and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are difficult to obtain.
B)underlying decision trees are very complex and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are difficult to obtain.
C)underlying decision trees are simple and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are easy to obtain.
D)underlying decision trees are very complex and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are easy to obtain.
A)underlying decision trees are simple and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are difficult to obtain.
B)underlying decision trees are very complex and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are difficult to obtain.
C)underlying decision trees are simple and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are easy to obtain.
D)underlying decision trees are very complex and explicit solutions for the underlying decision tree are easy to obtain.
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80
Uncertainty of demand and price
A)drives the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
B)eliminates the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
C)facilitates the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
D)has no effect on the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
A)drives the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
B)eliminates the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
C)facilitates the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
D)has no effect on the value of building flexible production capacity at a plant.
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