Deck 11: Time Series Forecasting

Question 1

What is the correct form of the exponential smoothing model?

A)
B)
C)
D)

Answer 1

Question 2

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) B3:B14
B) C3:C14
C) D3:D14
D) B3:D14

Answer 2

C3:C14

Question 3

MAD, MAPE, MSE and RMSE are measures of model accuracy.

Answer 3

True

Question 4

Seasonality is defined as

A) regular variation above and below the trend line with a cycle completing itself within a year
B) regular variation above and below the trend line with a cycle completing itself within a period longer than one year
C) a sudden change in process level due to a known cause
D) part of the error term

Question 5

The weighted moving average technique is a special case of the moving average technique.

Question 6

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.
Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What formula should be entered in cell E6 (and copied to E7:E14) to compute the first average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

A) =Average($E$3:$E$6)
B) =Average($D$3:$D$6)
C) =Average(D3:D6)
D) =Average(D5:D6)

Question 7

A time series is a set of observations on a quantitative variable collected over time.

Question 8

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.1. What Excel function will compute the root mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

A) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14)
B) =SQRT(SUMXMY2(B3:B14,C3:C14)/COUNT(C3:C14))
C) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14)
D) =SQRT(SUMPRODUCT(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14))

Question 9

Solver can be used to estimate model parameters when the time series is stationary and additive seasonal effects are present.

Question 10

Exponential smoothing is applicable to non-stationary data.

Question 11

Seasonality is a regular, repeating pattern in the data that takes longer than 1 year to complete.

Question 12

The TREND( ) function can be used to calculate the estimated values for linear regression models.

Question 13

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.1. What Excel function will compute the mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

A) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14)
B) =SUMXMY2(B3:B14,C3:C14)/COUNT(C3:C14)
C) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14)
D) =SUMPRODUCT(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14)

Question 14

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the Trend value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A) =$D$18*(E6-E7)+(1-$D$18)*F6
B) =$D$18*(E7-E6)+$D$18*F6
C) =$D$18*(E7-E6)+(1-$D$18)*F6
D) =$D$18*(E7-E6)*(1-$D$18)

Question 15

The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the w_i is a non-linear optimization problem because

A) absolute values are used.
B) the w_i are fractional.
C) the w_i sum to 1.
D) MSE is a non-linear objective function.

Question 16

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

A) 1155 ≤ predicted sales < 1160
B) 1065 ≤ predicted sales < 1070
C) 1410 ≤ predicted sales < 1415
D) 1635 ≤ predicted sales < 1640

Question 17

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.11. What formula should be entered in cell C18 to compute the Seasonal Index value for quarter 1?

A) =SUM($B$3:$B$14)/COUNTIF($B$3:$B$14,B18)
B) =SUMIF($B$3:$B$14,B18,$G$3:$G$14)/COUNTIF($B$3:$B$14,B18)
C) =SUMIF($B$3:$B$14,$G$3:$G$14)/COUNT($B$3:$B$14,B18)
D) =SUMIF($B$3:$B$14,B18)/COUNTIF($B$3:$B$14,B18)

Question 18

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What formula should be entered in cell C6 to compute the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3?

A) =F3*B4+F4*B3
B) =$F$3*B4+$F$4*B3
C) =(B3+B4)/2
D) =SUMPRODUCT($F$3:$F$4,B3:B4)

Question 19

In stationary time series there is no significant upward or downward trend in the data over time.

Question 20

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What formula should be entered in cell F4 to compute the trend when using Holt's method?

A) =$J$3*D4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3)
B) =$J$4*(E4-E3)+(1-$J$4)*F3
C) =$J$4*(E4-E3)+(1-$J$4)*G3
D) =$J$4*G3+(1-$J$4)*(D3+G3)

Question 21

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell H7 to compute the Predicted Sales value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A) =SUM(E6:F6)*G3
B) =SUM(E6:F6)+G3
C) =SUM(E6:F6)
D) =SUM(E6:G3)

Question 22

Seasonality in a time series is indicated by

A) regular, repeating patterns in the data around a trend line.
B) regular patterns in the data around a trend line.
C) irregular patterns in the data around a trend line.
D) random patterns in the data around a trend line.

Question 23

A technique that analyzes past behavior of a time-series variable to predict the future is referred to as

A) a regression model.
B) a seasonal model.
C) a past performance model.
D) an extrapolation model.

Question 24

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What formula should be entered in cell I3 to compute the Seasonal Value for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) =388.88+10.052*C3+4.248*D3+79.917*E3+296.008*F3+84.924*G3
B) =10.052*C3+4.248*D3-79.917*E3-296.008*F3-84.924*G3
C) =388.88+10.052*C3+4.248*D3-79.917*E3-296.008*F3-84.924*G3
D) =I3+10.052*C3+4.248*D3-79.917*E3-296.008*F3-84.924*G3

Question 25

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the value for the indicator variable for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) =IF($B$3<>$E$2,1,0)
B) =IF($B3=E$2,1)
C) =IF($B$3=$E$2,0,1)
D) =IF($B3=E$2,1,0)

Question 26

Which of the following is not a quantitative technique for evaluating the accuracy of a time-series modeling technique?

A) Constructing line graphs of the data.
B) The mean absolute deviation.
C) The mean absolute percent error.
D) The root mean square error.

Question 27

Assume that seasonality exists in the monthly product sales data. The number of seasonal indexes needed to model this is equal to

A) 11
B) 10
C) 12
D) 4

Question 28

Which of the following statements are true regarding the difference between forecasts using exponential smoothing and forecasts using a weighted moving average method?

A) The exponential smoothing forecasts will have a steeper trend line.
B) The weighted moving average forecasts will form a level line of constant value.
C) The exponential smoothing forecasts will form a level line of constant value.
D) The exponential smoothing forecasts will do a better job of capturing the underlying trend in the data.

Question 29

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the base level value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A) =$D$17+(1-$D$17)*(E6+F6)
B) =$D$17*D7/G3+(1-$D$17)*(E6+F6)
C) =$D$17*D7/G3+(1-$D$17)
D) =$D$17*D7/G3+($D$17)*(E6+F6)

Question 30

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) $C$3:$C$14
B) $H$3:$H$14
C) $C$3:$G$14
D) $H$3:$I$14

Question 31

The correct formula for the weighted moving average extrapolation technique with different weights is

A)
B)
C)
D)

Question 32

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

A) =$J$3*(D7-D3) + (1-$J$3)*E6
B) =$J$3*(D7-D6) + (1-$J$3)*E6
C) =$J$4*(D7-D3) + (1-$J$4)*E6
D) =$J$4*(D7-D6) + (1-$J$4)*E6

Question 33

The correct formula for a k period moving average is

A)
B)
C)
D)

Question 34

The general form of an extrapolation model for time-series analysis is

A)
B)
C)
D)

Question 35

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.9. Which column in the spreadsheet represents the independent variable for a regression model?

A) A
B) B
C) C
D) D

Question 36

How is mean absolute deviation calculated?

A)
B)
C)
D)

Question 37

Which of the following describes a multiplicative seasonal effect in times series data?

A) An occasional pattern of equal magnitude.
B) An occasional pattern of unequal magnitude.
C) A regular, repeating pattern of equal magnitude.
D) A regular, repeating pattern of increasing magnitude.

Question 38

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 13?

A) 79.20 ≤ forecast < 79.30
B) 79.60 ≤ forecast < 79.70
C) 80.10 ≤ forecast < 80.20
D) 81.95 ≤ forecast < 82.05

Question 39

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the additive seasonal effects method?

A) =AVERAGE($E$3:$E$6)
B) =AVERAGE(E3, E7, E11)
C) =AVERAGE($D$3:$D$6)
D) =AVERAGE(D3, D7, D11)

Question 40

How many indicator variables are required if there are p seasons in a time series and you are forecasting with a seasonal regression model?

A) p − 1
B) p
C) p + 1
D) p + 2

Question 41

Which of the following describes an additive seasonal effect in times series data?

A) An occasional pattern of equal magnitude.
B) An occasional pattern of unequal magnitude.
C) A regular, repeating pattern of equal magnitude.
D) A regular, repeating pattern of increasing magnitude.

Question 42

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

A) 69.75 ≤ forecast < 70.25
B) 73.00 ≤ forecast < 73.50
C) 74.75 ≤ forecast < 75.25
D) 79.75 ≤ forecast < 81.25

Question 43

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What formula should be entered in cell E4 to compute the base level when using Holt's method?

A) =$J$3*D4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3)
B) =$J$4*D4+(1-$J$4)*(E3+F3)
C) =$J$3*G4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3)
D) =$J$4*(E4-E3)+(1-$J$4)*F3

Question 44

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.
Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What formula should be entered in cell I16 to compute the forecast for time period 14?

A) =I15+2*$H$14
B) =G14+B16*H14
C) =G14+3*H14
D) =G12+H12

Question 45

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.
Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell G13 to compute the forecast for time period 11?

A) =E13+F13
B) =E12+F13
C) =E12+F8
D) =E12+F9

Question 46

Which of the following is true of 2-month moving average forecasting function extrapolation?

A) When forecasting ahead 4 periods, the last period forecast will be based on just forecasted values.
B) The final period forecast, will equal .
C) Each forecasted value will equal the mean of the last two actual data values.
D) The value should not be used as only a 2-month ahead forecast is valid.

Question 47

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) = 263.4545 * C3 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577
B) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 * C3
C) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C2 + 4.922577 * D2
D) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C3 + 4.922577 * D3

Question 48

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

A) 1170 ≤ predicted sales < 1175
B) 1310 ≤ predicted sales < 1315
C) 1460 ≤ predicted sales < 1465
D) 1615 ≤ predicted sales < 1620

Question 49

As alpha increases the exponential smoothing model

A) produces sluggish forecasts.
B) reacts quickly to changes in the data.
C) reacts slowly to changes in the data.
D) does not change.

Question 50

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
In the formula for MAD, MAPE, and MSE, the Y_t and terms represent

A) the actual and mean values, respectively.
B) the actual and forecasted values, respectively.
C) the forecasted and actual values, respectively.
D) the predicted and forecasted values, respectively.

Question 51

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What would be the forecasted value for time period 13?

A) 83.024.
B) 80.796.
C) 79.245.
D) 79.908.

Question 52

A time series which has a significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

A) static.
B) non-moving.
C) stationary.
D) non-stationary.

Question 53

A model or technique that uses past behavior of a time-series variable to predict the future is referred to as

A) a forecasting model.
B) an extrapolation model.
C) a trend model.
D) all of these.

Question 54

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
Refer to Exhibit 11.3. Assume the forecasted value for month 13 is 79.64. What is the forecasted value for month 16?

A) 85.54.
B) 83.64.
C) 79.64.
D) 82.00.

Question 55

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.1. If predicting the cars sold for time period 14, what formula must be placed in cell B16?

A) =AVERAGE(B12:B15)
B) =AVERAGE(B12:B15)/4
C) =TREND(B12:B15)
D) =B14

Question 56

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) B3:B14
B) C3:C14
C) D3:D14
D) E3:E14

Question 57

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What is the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3 using the weight in the spreadsheet? Associate weight w₁ with sales in time period 2 and w₂ with sales in time period 1.

A) 72.44
B) 75.00
C) 76.59
D) 77.56

Question 58

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.
Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the multiplicative seasonal effects method?

A) =AVERAGE($E$3:$E$6)
B) =AVERAGE(E3, E7, E11)
C) =AVERAGE($D$3:$D$6)
D) =AVERAGE(D3, D7, D11)

Question 59

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What formula should be entered in cell G12 to compute the forecast for time period 10?

A) =E10+F7
B) =E12+F12
C) =E12+F8
D) =E11+F8

Question 60

Which of the following is the common approach to time-series analysis?

A) Try several techniques and use the best results.
B) Plot the data and count the peaks to determine a value for k.
C) Plot the data and use the TREND() function.
D) Use a stationary model since it is the most robust.

Question 61

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A) 908 ≤ predicted sales < 909
B) 1026 ≤ predicted sales < 1027
C) 1144 ≤ predicted sales < 1146
D) 1160 ≤ predicted sales < 1161

Question 62

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) B3:B14
B) C3:C14
C) C3:D14
D) C3:E14

Question 63

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.1. What formula should be entered in cell C13 to compute the 4-month moving average forecast for month 11?

A) =AVERAGE(B9:B12)/4
B) =AVERAGE(B7+B10)
C) =AVERAGE(A9:A12)
D) =AVERAGE(B9:B12)

Question 64

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What Excel command can be used in cells F4:F14 in lieu of a formula based on the regression statistics?

A) =TREND($E$3:$E$14,$C$3:$C$14,C4)
B) =TREND($E$3:$E$14,$C$3:$D$14,C4:D4)
C) =TREND($E$3:$E$14,$C$3:$D$14,D4)
D) =TREND($E$3:$E$14,$B$3:$D$14,B4:D4)

Question 65

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What formula should be entered in cell C4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

A) =C3-$F$3*(B3-C3)
B) =C3+$F$3*(C3-B3)
C) =B3+$F$3*(B3-C3)
D) =C3+$F$3*(B3-C3)

Question 66

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

A) 795 ≤ predicted sales < 800
B) 860 ≤ predicted sales < 865
C) 910 ≤ predicted sales < 915
D) 1280 ≤ predicted sales < 1285

Question 67

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A) 915 ≤ predicted sales < 916
B) 916 ≤ predicted sales < 917
C) 991 ≤ predicted sales < 992
D) 1045 ≤ predicted sales < 1046

Question 68

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.
Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the multiplicative seasonal effects model?

A) =$J$3*D4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3)
B) =$J$4*(D7/E7)+(1-$J$4)*F3
C) =$J$4*(E7/E6)+(1-$J$4)*E6
D) =$J$3*G3+(1-$J$3)*(D3+G3)

Question 69

In an exponential smoothing method, weights are assigned

A) just to the current actual and predicted values.
B) just to the previous data point and its predicted value.
C) to all past data points with weight α.
D) to all past data points with more recent data points receiving more weight.

Question 70

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.
Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What are predicted sales for time period 16 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A) 1964 ≤ predicted sales < 1965
B) 2147 ≤ predicted sales < 2148
C) 2330 ≤ predicted sales < 2331
D) 2513 ≤ predicted sales < 2513

Question 71

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
Refer to Exhibit 11.2. Which cell in the spreadsheet is the objective cell in the Analytic Solver Platform (ASP) task pane area?

A) F3
B) F4
C) F5
D) C16

Question 72

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.
Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What formula should be entered in cell F9 to compute the second average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

A) =Average($E$3:$E$9)
B) =Average($D$3:$D$9)
C) =Average(D3:D9)
D) =Average(D6:D9)

Question 73

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.11. What formula should be entered in cell H3 to compute the Seasonal Forecast value for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) =F3*VLOOKUP(B3,$B$18:$C$21,2)
B) =F3*HLOOKUP(B3,$B$18:$B$21,2)
C) =F3*VLOOKUP(B3,$B$18:$B$21,2)
D) =F3*VLOOKUP(B3,$C$18:$C$21,2)

Question 74

Forecasting into distant future periods

A) is unreliable
B) is expensive
C) is easy
D) assumes changing data patterns

Question 75

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) $C$3:$C$14
B) $H$3:$H$14
C) $C$3:$G$14
D) $H$3:$I$14

Question 76

Why might we not be able to build a regression model to predict a dependent variable?

A) We might not know the independent variables.
B) There might not be any data available for the independent variables.
C) The regression model might not fit the data well.
D) All of these are true.

Question 77

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.
Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A) 1259 ≤ predicted sales < 1260
B) 1938 ≤ predicted sales < 1939
C) 2090 ≤ predicted sales < 2091
D) 2187 ≤ predicted sales < 2188

Question 78

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.
Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What formula should be entered in cell H9 to compute the trend using the double moving average model with k = 4?

A) =2*(AVERAGE(E9,F9))/4
B) =2*(E9-F9)/(4-1)
C) =2*(E9-F9)/(4*2)
D) =2*(D9-F9)/(4-1)

Question 79

Why might a forecaster calculate MSE values on just the most recent data in the time-series data set?

A) The forecaster might be interested in how well the forecasting method performs on the more recent data.
B) Because the most recent data may be a better predictor of future values.
C) Because the resulting forecasting function might fit the older data better that the more recent data.
D) All of these.

Question 80

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What are predicted sales for time period 2 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A) 208.5 ≤ predicted sales < 209.5
B) 233.5 ≤ predicted sales < 234.5
C) 283.5 ≤ predicted sales < 284.5
D) 300.5 ≤ predicted sales < 301.5