Deck 17: Forecasting

Question 1

A linear trend line that relates time to a demand trend is a

A)time series forecasting method
B)a variation of an exponential smoothing forecasting method
C)a variation of an adjusted exponential smoothing forecasting method
D)a regression method

Answer 1

D

Question 2

If a company's product demand is 100 units in month 1,75 units in month 2,110 units in month 3 and 50 units in month 4,and it weights the month 1 demand 0.10,month 2 demand 0.20,month 3 demand 0.30,and month 4 demand 0.40,its 4-month weighted moving average for month 5 is

A)78.00
B)83.75
C)95.50
D)103.40

Answer 2

A

Question 3

A measure of forecast error recomputed each time period by dividing the cumulative error by MAD is the

A)mean squared error
B)MAPD
C)tracking signal
D)sample standard deviation

Answer 3

C

Question 4

An up and down movement in demand that repeats itself over a lengthy time span is a

A)trend
B)random variation
C)seasonal pattern
D)cycle

Question 5

A forecasting procedure for acquiring informed judgements and opinions from knowledgeable individuals in order to develop a consensus about what will occur in the future is

A)data mining
B)regression
C)long-range forecasting
D)the Delphi method

Question 6

The adjusted exponential smoothing forecast consists of the exponential smoothing forecast with an adjustment for

A)trend
B)cycles
C)seasonal patterns
D)random variations

Question 7

If the sum of demands for 8 time periods is 420 and the sum of the forecasts for the same periods is 500,MAD is

A)0.8
B)-8.0
C)-10.0
D)10.0

Question 8

Exponential smoothing is a time series averaging method that weights the most recent data

A)the same as past data
B)less than past data
C)more strongly than past data
D)the same as the weighted moving average method

Question 9

A long-range forecast is typically from

A)12 to 18 months
B)3 months to a year
C)longer than two years into the future
D)up to 3 years

Question 10

In a linear regression model if the mean of the independent variable data is 10,the mean of the dependent variable data is 75 and the slope is 5,if x equals 15,the forecast,y,is

A)75
B)100
C)125
D)150

Question 11

The distortion of demand forecasts in the supply chain that results in excessive inventory as demand moves further away from the end use customer is known as the

A)Delphi effect
B)bullwhip effect
C)time series effect
D)distortion effect

Question 12

Forecasting methods that attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between demand and factors that cause it to behave the way it does are

A)time series
B)qualitative
C)regression
D)moving average

Question 13

The Excel option that can be accessed from the tool bar that results in an exponential smoothing window wherein the user only has to input the demand values and alpha to generate forecast values is

A)Descriptive statistics
B)Forecasting models
C)Solver
D)Data Analysis

Question 14

In a linear regression model if the mean of the independent variable data is 10,the mean of the dependent variable data is 75 and the slope is 5,the intercept is

A)25
B)7
C)-25
D)13

Question 15

Accurate forecasting is a crucial part of quality management because it

A)lowers costs so companies can be competitive
B)enables companies to produce better goods and services
C)allows companies to provide products and services when they are demanded
D)provides companies more flexibility in their production processes

Question 16

In exponential smoothing,the smoothing constant,alpha,

A)is between 0.0 and 0.5
B)reflects the weight given the first period data
C)reflects the weight given the most recent data
D)is a weight that reflects a trend in the demand data

Question 17

In an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast,beta,is a weighting factor that

A)is between 0.0 and 0.5
B)reflects changes in trend
C)reflects the weight given the most recent demand data
D)reflects demand cycles

Question 18

In an Excel spreadsheet set up for an exponential smoothing forecast model,if alpha is in cell B4,the demand for period 3 is in cell B11,and the forecast for period 3 is in cell C11 the Excel formula for the forecast for period 4 in cell C12 is

A)=B4*B11*1-B4)*C11
B)=B4*B11+1-B4)*C11
C)=B11*B4+1-B11)*C11
D)=B4*C11+1-C11)*B11

Question 19

If the sum of demands for 8 time periods is 420 and the sum of the forecasts for the same periods is 500,MAPD is

A)16%
B)19%
C)84%
D)36%

Question 20

If a company's product demand is 100 units in month 1,75 units in month 2,110 units in month 3 and 50 units in month 4,its 4-month moving average for month 5 is

A)103.35
B)95.50
C)71.25
D)83.75

Question 21

A measure of the strength of the relationship between the variables in a linear regression equation that indicates the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that isa result of the behavior of the independent variable is the

A)correlation coefficient
B)linear coefficient
C)coefficient of determination
D)regression coefficient

Question 22

A data mining tool that searches for relationships between variables across a variety of variations is

A)classification
B)association rule learning
C)clustering
D)summarization

Question 23

A data mining tool that uses software packages to identify groups in the data that naturally fall together is

A)classification
B)association rule learning
C)clustering
D)summarization

Question 24

A company's repository for its own current and historical data ,including information from its own operations is typically called a

A)database
B)data repository
C)data warehouse
D)data mine

Question 25

Data mining tools that might adopt traditional forecasting methods to forecast a variable value like demand from the available data is referred to as

A)classification
B)association learning
C)clustering
D)predictive