Introduction to Management Science 12th Edition by Bernard Taylor

Exercise 39

A large research hospital has accumulated statistical data on its patients for an extended period. Researchers have determined that patients who are smokers have an 18% chance of contracting a serious illness such as heart disease, cancer, or emphysema, whereas there is only a.06 probability that a nonsmoker will contract a serious illness. From hospital records, the researchers know that 23% of all hospital patients are smokers, while 77% are nonsmokers. For planning purposes, the hospital physician staff would like to know the probability that a given patient is a smoker if the patient has a serious illness.