Introduction to Management Science 12th Edition by Bernard Taylor

Exercise 62

The Beaver Creek Pottery Company sells bowls and mugs, hand-made by Native American artisans, at a craft store and through a Web site. Making these items requires a special type of clay and a large amount of individual person-hours, so for planning purposes, the company would like to forecast future demand, specifically through its Web site, which has increasingly become the primary source of sales. Following is the company's Web site demand (in items sold) for the past 36 months:
Develop a linear trend forecast model, an exponentially smoothed model ( = 0.20), and a 5-month moving average forecast model and indicate which one you think should be used to forecast Web site demand.