Macroeconomics 12th Edition by Rudiger Dornbusch ,Stanley Fischer,Richard Startz

Exercise 4

The subsection "The Rational Expectations Equilibrium Approach: Empirical Evidence" investigates the rational expectations hypothesis for the United States. Do the same analysis for Australia.
a. Go to www.rba.gov.au/statistics and click on "Search for Statistics." Find and download data for M 3 and real GDP (found in Share Price Product).
b. Calculate the growth rate of M 3 as [ln( M 3) - ln( M 3 - 1 )] X 100. Calculate the anticipated growth rate of M 3 by regressing the growth rate of M 3 on a constant and four lags. Make a graph that includes the actual, anticipated (fitted), and unanticipated (residual) growth rate of M 3. Comment.
c. Calculate the quarter-to-quarter growth rate in real GDP as
[ln( RGDP ) ln( RGDP - 1 )] X 100.
Make a scatterplot that has the anticipated growth rate of M 3 on the X axis and the growth rate of output on the Y axis. Comment.