Deck 25: Real Options

Question 1

Real options affect the size, but not the risk, of a project's expected cash flows.

Answer 1

False

Question 2

Texas Wildcatters Inc. (TWI) is in the business of finding and developing oil properties, and then selling the successful ones to major oil refining companies. TWI is now considering a new potential field, and its geologists have developed the following data, in thousands of dollars.
T = 0. A $400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0. The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project.
T = 1. If the feasibility study indicates good potential, the firm would spend $1,000 at t = 1 to drill exploratory wells. The best estimate is that there is an 80% probability that the exploratory wells would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done, and a 20% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned.
T = 2. If the exploratory wells test positive, TWI would go ahead and spend $10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2. The best estimate now is that there is a 60% probability that the results would be very good and a 40% probability that results would be poor and the field would be abandoned.
T = 3. If the full drilling program is carried out, there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a $25,000 cash inflow at t = 3, and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then only receiving a $10,000 inflow.
Since the project is considered to be quite risky, a 20% cost of capital is used. What is the project's expected NPV, in thousands of dollars?

A) $336.15
B) $373.50
C) $415.00
D) $461.11
E) $507.22

Answer 2

D

Question 3

Real options are options to buy real assets, like stocks, rather than interest-bearing assets, like bonds.

Answer 3

False

Question 4

Which of the following will NOT increase the value of a real option?

A) Lengthening the time in which a real option must be exercised.
B) An increase in the volatility of the underlying source of risk.
C) An increase in the risk-free rate.
D) An increase in the cost of obtaining the real option.
E) A decrease in the probability that a competitor will enter the market of the project in question.

Question 5

(The following data apply to following Problems . The problems MUST be kept together.)
Diplomat.com is considering a project that has an up-front cost of $3 million and is expected to produce a cash flow of $500,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. The project's cost of capital is 10%.
If Diplomat goes ahead with this project today, it will obtain
Knowledge that will give rise to additional opportunities 5 years from now (at t = 5). The company can decide at t = 5 whether or not it wants to pursue these additional opportunities. Based on the best information available today, there is a 35% probability that the outlook will be favorable, in which case the future investment opportunity will have a net present value of $6 million at t = 5.
There is a 65% probability that the outlook will be unfavorable, in which case the future investment opportunity will have a net present value of -$6 million at t = 5. Diplomat.com does not have to decide today whether it wants to pursue the additional opportunity. Instead, it can wait to see what the outlook is. However, the company cannot pursue the future opportunity unless it makes the $3 million investment today. What is the estimated net present value of the project, after consideration of the potential future opportunity?

A) -$1,104,607
B) -$875,203
C) $199,328
D) $561,947
E) $898,205

Question 6

Which of the following is most CORRECT?

A) Real options change the size, but not the risk, of projects' expected cash flows.
B) Real options change the risk, but not the size, of projects' expected cash flows.
C) Real options are likely to reduce the cost of capital that should be used to discount a project's expected cash flows.
D) Very few projects actually have real options.
E) Real options are less valuable when there is a lot of uncertainty about the true values future sales and costs.

Question 7

Nebraska Pharmaceuticals Company (NPC) is considering a project that has an up-front cost at t = 0 of $1,500. (All dollars in this problem are in thousands.) The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether a competitor's product is approved by the Food and Drug Administration. If the FDA rejects the competitive product, NPC's product will have high sales and cash flows, but if the competitive product is approved, that will negatively impact NPC. There is a 75% chance that the competitive product will be rejected, in which case NPC's expected cash flows will be $500 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7). There is a 25% chance that the competitor's product will be approved, in which case the expected cash flows will be only $25 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7). NPC will know for sure one year from today whether the competitor's product has been approved.
NPC is considering whether to make the investment today or to wait a year to find out about the FDA's decision. If it waits a year, the project's up-front cost at t = 1 will remain at $1,500, the subsequent cash flows will remain at $500 per year if the competitor's product is rejected and $25 per year if the alternative product is approved.
However, if NPC decides to wait, the subsequent cash flows will be received only for six years (t = 2 ... 7).
Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 10%, if NPC chooses to wait a year before proceeding, how much will this increase or decrease the project's expected NPV in today's dollars , relative to the NPV if it proceeds today?

A) $77.23
B) $85.81
C) $95.34
D) $105.94
E) $116.53

Question 8

Real options are most valuable when the underlying source of risk is very low.

Question 9

In the previous problem you were asked to find the expected NPV of a project TWI is considering. Use the same data to calculate the project's coefficient of variation.

A) 5.87
B) 6.52
C) 7.25
D) 7.97
E) 8.77

Question 10

In the previous problem you found the benefit from delaying an investment decision. Now use the same data to calculate the effect of waiting on the project's risk. By how much will delaying reduce the project's coefficient of variation? (Hint: Use the expected NPV as found in Problem 14.)

A) 2.23
B) 2.46
C) 2.70
D) 2.97
E) 3.27

Question 11

The option to abandon a project is a real option, but a call option on a stock is not a real option.

Question 12

(The following data apply to following Problems . The problems MUST be kept together.)
Oklahoma Instruments (OI) is considering a project called F-200 that has an up-front cost of $250,000. The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether another of its products, F-100, becomes an industry standard. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be
$110,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will not become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be $25,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. Assume that the cost of capital is 12%.
Based on the above information, what is the F-200's expected net present value?

A) -$6,678
B) -$3,251
C) $15,303
D) $20,004
E) $45,965

Question 13

(The following data apply to following Problems . The problems MUST be kept together.)
Diplomat.com is considering a project that has an up-front cost of $3 million and is expected to produce a cash flow of $500,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. The project's cost of capital is 10%.
Based on the above data, what is the project's net present value?

A) -$1,312,456
B) -$1,104,607
C) -$875,203
D) $105,999
E) $321,788

Question 14

(The following data apply to following Problems . The problems MUST be kept together.)
Oklahoma Instruments (OI) is considering a project called F-200 that has an up-front cost of $250,000. The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether another of its products, F-100, becomes an industry standard. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be
$110,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will not become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be $25,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. Assume that the cost of capital is 12%.
Now assume that one year from now OI will know if the F-100 has become the industry standard. Also assume that after receiving the cash flows at t = 1, OI has the option to abandon the project, in which case it will receive an additional $100,000 at t = 1 but no cash flows after t = 1. Assuming that the cost of capital remains at 12%, what is the estimated value of the abandonment option?

A) $0
B) $2,075
C) $4,067
D) $8,945
E) $10,745

Question 15

Real options exist when managers have the opportunity, after a project has been implemented, to make operating changes in response to changed conditions that modify the project's cash flows.