Deck 13: Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning

Question 1

Consider the following argument:
Observation: Here in Nashville,the sun has risen every morning.Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Nashville tomorrow.

A)The argument is weak because there is only one specific case.
B)The argument is strong because the premise includes scientific evidence.
C)The argument is weak because the observation does not consider other cities.
D)The argument is strong because there are a large number of observations.

Answer 1

The argument is strong because there are a large number of observations.

Question 2

One hundred students are enrolled in State University's course on introductory physics for math and science majors.In the group,60 students are math majors and 40 are science majors.Sarah is in the class.She got all As in her high school science courses,and she would like to be a chemist someday.She lives on campus.Her boyfriend is also in the class.There is achance that Sarah is a science major.

A)40%
B)50%
C)60%
D)100%

Answer 2

40%

Question 3

If a motorcycle cop believes that young female drivers speed more than other drivers,he will likely notice young female drivers speeding in the fast lane but fail to notice young male or older drivers doing the same.In this case,the police officer's judgments are biased by the operation of the

A)permission schema.
B)confirmation bias.
C)falsification principle.
D)typicality principle.

Answer 3

confirmation bias.

Question 4

Mia has lived in New York City all her life.She has noticed that people from upper Manhattan walk really fast,but people from lower Manhattan tend to walk slowly.Mia's observations are likely influenced from a judgment error based on her using

A)the law of large numbers.
B)an atmosphere effect.
C)an illusory correlation.
D)the falsification principle.

Question 5

The finding that people tend to incorrectly conclude that more people die from tornados than from asthma has been explained in terms of the

A)representativeness heuristic.
B)availability heuristic.
C)falsification principle.
D)belief bias.

Question 6

Greg was recounting a fishing tale of the one that got away: "I had a huge ahi tuna on my line.I fought for it for a few minutes,then my line snapped.The tuna swam away across the pond." Greg's friend,Matt,didn't believe his story because Matt knew that tuna are salt-water fish and aren't found in ponds.Greg's account contains

A)descriptive information that is inconsistent with base rate information.
B)a belief bias.
C)inductive reasoning based on observations of multiple,specific cases.
D)a focusing illusion.

Question 7

Lydia is 48 years old,single,outspoken,and very bright.She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate.As a student,she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice,and she participated in anti- nuclear demonstrations.Which of the following alternatives is most probable?

A)Lydia is a U.S.Congresswoman.
B)Lydia is a U.S.Congresswoman and active in the feminist movement.
C)Lydia is a state governor.
D)Lydia is a state governor and active in the feminist movement.

Question 8

Imagine that your friend James has just taken up the habit of smoking cigars because he thinks it makes him look cool.You are concerned about the detrimental effects of smoking on his health,and you raise that concern to him.James gets a bit annoyed with your criticism and says "George Burns smoked cigars,and he lived to be 100!" You might point out that a major problem with his "George Burns" argument involves

A)framing.
B)the conjunction rule.
C)sample size.
D)none of these

Question 9

Failing to consider the law of large numbers most likely results in errors concerning

A)confirmation bias.
B)utility.
C)the falsification principle.
D)the representativeness heuristic.

Question 10

Stereotypes are reinforced by all of the following EXCEPT

A)the availability heuristic.
B)illusory correlations.
C)selective attention.
D)the falsification principle.

Question 11

Jonas bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase.On the first day he went out wearing the new garment,he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office.He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune.Jonas's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of

A)the availability heuristic.
B)an illusory correlation.
C)selective attention.
D)the falsification principle.

Question 12

The conjunction rule states that

A)the probability of two events co-occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each event occurring.
B)the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone.
C)people make decisions based upon both the costs and benefits of the choices.
D)people make decisions based upon possible benefits when the choices are framed positively and based upon possible costs when the choices are framed negatively.

Question 13

Wally and Sharon are out on a date.When Sharon asks Wally where they should go for dinner,Wally says "My coworkers keep telling me about that new Japanese place downtown,so it must be a great place to eat." Wally's response illustrates the use of a(n)

A)availability heuristic.
B)confirmation bias.
C)conjunction rule.
D)permission schema.

Question 14

Gabrielle is blonde,extremely attractive,and lives in an expensive condo.If we judge the probability of Gabrielle's being a model quite high because she resembles our stereotype of a model,we are using

A)the representativeness heuristic.
B)the availability heuristic.
C)framing.
D)the law of small numbers.

Question 15

Of the following real-world phenomena,the confirmation bias best explains the observation that people

A)do not always make decisions that maximize their monetary outcome.
B)are more likely to purchase meat advertised as 80% fat free than 20% fat.
C)misjudge homicide as more prevalent in the U.S.than suicide.
D)can cite several reasons for their position on a controversial issue but none for the opposing side.

Question 16

Bonnie has ordered her monthly supply of medicines through the mail for the past five years.Except for one order,all orders have arrived within two business days.Bonnie placed an order yesterday,and she expects to receive her order tomorrow.Bonnie is using

A)an omission bias.
B)inductive reasoning.
C)the conjunction rule.
D)the similarity-coverage model.

Question 17

Making probable conclusions based on evidence involvesreasoning.

A)deductive
B)syllogistic
C)inductive
D)connective

Question 18

At a lunch meeting with a client,the CEO of Gossip Polls,Inc. ,was asked to determine America's favorite day of the week.Hundreds of Gossip employees across the U.S.started collecting data immediately,calling people at their residences.One hour later,the attitudes from 10,000 Americans,across all 50 states,were collected.A staff member called the CEO,still at her lunch meeting,to tell her the results of the poll: America's favorite day of the week is Monday.Given your text's discussion of inductive reasoning in science,we might suspect that the observations in this poll are not representative because

A)the participants were only asked one question for this poll.
B)the participants were not sufficiently geographically diverse.
C)the people who are home to answer the phone in the early afternoon are not an appropriate cross-section of the U.S.population.
D)everyone in America was not asked their opinion.

Question 19

Derrick purchased a new car,a Ford Mustang,less than a month ago.While sitting in traffic,Derrick says to his girlfriend,"Mustangs must be the best-selling car now.I can't remember seeing as many on the road as I have recently." Derrick's judgment is most likely biased by a(n)

A)representativeness heuristic.
B)availability heuristic.
C)illusory correlation.
D)permission schema.

Question 20

There are two gumball machines outside the local grocery store,one large machine and one small machine.Both machines have only yellow and orange gumballs,and each machine contains 50 percent of each color.For each coin,the large gumball machine dispenses 15 gumballs,while the small machine dispenses 5.Tim is a young genius whose interests include probability and sound decision-making.His "probability project of the day" is to get a greater percentage of either of the colors,but not an equal amount of each color.Given this,and presuming Tim has only one coin,

A)he should use his coin in the large machine.
B)he should use his coin in the small machine.
C)it doesn't make a difference which machine he uses.
D)he should wait for other people to use the machines and see what they get.

Question 21

Juanita is in a convenience store considering which soda to buy.She recalls a commercial for BigFizz she saw on TV last night.BigFizz is running a promotion where you look under the bottle cap,and one in five bottles has a voucher for a free soda.If Juanita decides to purchase a BigFizz based on this promotion,which is framed in terms of,she will use astrategy.

A)losses;risk-taking
B)gains;risk-taking
C)losses;risk-aversion
D)gains;risk-aversion

Question 22

Utility refers to

A)outcomes that achieve a person's goals.
B)how useful a reasoning process is.
C)the validity of a syllogism.
D)degree of risk aversion one has.

Question 23

In an experiment that combined both physiological and behavioral approaches to the study of decision making,PFC activity was recorded while participants accepted or rejected proposals to split a sum of money ($10).PFC activation was

A)greatest for accepted offers.
B)greatest for rejected offers.
C)the same for accepted and rejected offers.
D)dependent on how much money the responder was offered.

Question 24

Research in neuroeconomics has found that the function of themay be to deal with the cognitive demands of a given task,while theis responsible for handling emotional goals such as resenting an unfair outcome.

A)basal ganglia;corpus callosum
B)striate nucleus;locus coeruleus
C)prefrontal cortex;insula
D)diencephalon;putamen

Question 25

Donovan volunteers his time to campaign for Joel Goodman.He spent all afternoon putting up "Goodman for Congress" signs around his town and arrived back at Goodman headquarters just in time to watch the Goodman- Hernandez debate on TV.Donovan was eager to watch the candidates debate each other,even though he was 100% sure he was going to vote for Goodman.Donovan's first response to the debate will most likely be

A)"I noticed that Goodman and Hernandez agreed on the new environmental policy."
B)"Did you hear how well Goodman answered that question on job creation?"
C)"I wonder why Goodman was so vague on the school tax issue when I know he has a clear idea about that."
D)"Hernandez is really going to make this a tight race."

Question 26

Consider the following syllogism:
If p then q.p
Q
This syllogism is a(n)syllogism.

A)abstract conditional
B)concrete conditional
C)abstract categorical
D)concrete categorical

Question 27

Glinda is sure that if her boyfriend proposes,she will feel elation.This is an example of an

A)expected emotion.
B)immediate emotion.
C)integral immediate emotion.
D)incidental immediate emotion.

Question 28

Josiah is trying to decide whether or not to take a new job in a new city.He is worried that if he takes the job and fails,he will suffer from intense anxiety and depression.This is an example of

A)expected emotion.
B)immediate emotion.
C)integral immediate emotion.
D)incidental immediate emotion.

Question 29

Many people receive unsolicited calls from telemarketers or unwanted "junk" mailers advertising offers for products such as cable or internet services or cellular phone companies.Most people do not consider these offers and do not make a change to the plans or services that they receive because they do not want to make a decision that requires serious consideration or thought.This is an example of thebias.

A)actor-observer
B)dual systems
C)self-serving
D)status quo

Question 30

An experiment measures participants' performance in judging syllogisms.Two premises and a conclusion are presented as stimuli,and participants are asked to indicate (yes or no)if the conclusion logically follows from the premises.Error rates are then calculated for each syllogism.This experiment studiesreasoning.

A)deductive
B)intuitive
C)falsification
D)inductive

Question 31

Sanfey and coworkers' "ultimatum game" experiment revealed that people tended to make thedecision of
____.

A)irrational;accepting any offer
B)irrational;accepting only high offers
C)rational;accepting any offer
D)rational;accepting only high offers

Question 32

The validity of a syllogism depends on

A)the truth of its premises.
B)the truth of its conclusion.
C)its form.
D)both the truth of its premises and the truth of its conclusion.

Question 33

Consider the following syllogism:
All cats are birds.All birds have wings.All cats have wings.
This syllogism is

A)valid.
B)invalid.
C)true.
D)both valid and true.

Question 34

People tend to overestimate

A)what negative feelings will occur following a decision more so than positive feelings.
B)what positive feelings will occur following a decision more so than negative feelings.
C)what positive and negative feelings will occur following a decision to the same degree.
D)subjective utility values following a decision.

Question 35

Given its definition,expected utility theory is most applicable to deciding whether to

A)break up or stay involved with a current girlfriend.
B)go out for junior varsity hockey or junior varsity basketball.
C)buy first class or coach tickets for a spring break trip.
D)take astronomy or geology as a physical science elective course.

Question 36

Kirk is a generally anxious person.His anxiety sometimes gets in the way when he tries to make decisions.The anxiety Kirk feels is an example of anemotion.

A)expected
B)immediate
C)integral
D)incidental

Question 37

By using a(n),a country could increase the percentage of individuals agreeing to be organ donors dramatically.

A)opt-out procedure
B)opt-in procedure
C)pragmatic reasoning schema
D)permission schema

Question 38

Consider the following syllogism: If it's a robin then it is a bird.
It is a bird.
Therefore,it is a robin.
In the example above,"Therefore,it is a robin" is aof asyllogism.

A)premise;categorical
B)conclusion;categorical
C)premise;conditional
D)conclusion;conditional

Question 39

Cecile has dreamed of owning her own home for years,and she can finally afford a small cottage in an older neighborhood.She notices that she feels more positive about her home when she drives home by the abandoned shacks,but she hates her home when driving past the fancy mansions with their large lawns.Cecile's emotions are influenced by

A)the principle of diversity.
B)confirmation bias.
C)the framing effect.
D)the law of large numbers.

Question 40

If you are given the information that in order to vote in a presidential election,you must be at least 18 years of age,and that Will voted in the last presidential election,you can logically conclude that Will is at least 18 years old.This is an example of usingreasoning.

A)inductive
B)deductive
C)conjunctive
D)descriptive

Question 41

The rule of the Wason four-card problem is,"If there is a vowel on one side,then there is an even number on the other side." Let's say you are presented with A,8,M,and 13,each showing on one of four cards.To see if the rule is valid,you would have to turn over the cards showing

A)8 and M.
B)A and M.
C)A and 13.
D)8 and 13.

Question 42

Describe and give examples of how each of the following cause errors in reasoning: availability heuristic,illusory correlations,representative heuristic,and confirmation bias.

Question 43

Consider the following syllogism:
All of the students are tired.Some tired people are irritable.Some of the students are irritable.
It is likely that most people will judge this syllogism as

A)invalid because of the influence of the atmosphere effect.
B)invalid because this syllogism does not involve a pragmatic reasoning schema.
C)valid because this is indeed a valid syllogism and the logic is apparent.
D)valid because this conclusion is believable.

Question 44

Define the utility approach to decisions.Explain how emotions affect decisions from this perspective.

Question 45

"You can't have any pudding unless you eat your meat," says a man to his son at the dinner table.This is an
Example of

A)inductive reasoning.
B)a self-serving bias.
C)a permission schema.
D)the illusory correlation.

Question 46

When the "abstract" version of the Wason four-card problem is compared to a "concrete" version of the problem (in which beer,soda,and ages are substituted for the letters and numbers),

A)performance is better for the concrete task.
B)performance is better for the abstract task.
C)performance is the same for both tasks.
D)performing the abstract task improves performance of the concrete task.

Question 47

Consider the following conditional syllogism:
Premise 1: If I study,then I'll get a good grade.Premise 2: I got a good grade.
Conclusion: Therefore,I studied.
This syllogism is

A)valid.
B)skewed.
C)invalid.
D)robust.

Question 48

According to your text,the key to solving the Wason four-card problem is

A)a mental model.
B)a categorical syllogism.
C)the law of large numbers.
D)the falsification principle.

Question 49

Define both deductive and inductive reasoning and explain how they are different.What does it mean to say that the conclusion to a syllogism is "valid"?

Question 50

The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable is called the.

A)availability heuristic
B)confirmatory bias
C)belief bias
D)mental set

Question 51

The application of a(n)makes it easier to solve the "drinking beer" version of the Wason problem.

A)conjunction rule
B)permission schema
C)atmosphere effect
D)availability heuristic

Question 52

Consider the following conditional syllogism:
Premise 1: If I don't eat lunch today,I will be hungry tonight.Premise 2: I ate lunch today.
Conclusion: Therefore,I wasn't hungry tonight.
This syllogism is

A)valid.
B)invalid.
C)biased.
D)abstract.

Question 53

Which concept below is most closely associated with the evolutionary perspective to solving the Wason four-card problem?

A)Permission schemas
B)Falsification principle
C)Social-exchange theory
D)Availability heuristic

Question 54

The evolutionary approach proposes that the Wason problem can be understood in terms of people's

A)innate language abilities.
B)ability to work well with a group of others.
C)innate reasoning abilities.
D)tendency to detect when others are cheating.

Question 55

A syllogism is valid if

A)the conclusion follows logically from the two premises.
B)the two premises and the conclusion are true.
C)there is evidence to support the two premises.
D)there is no more than one exception to the conclusion.

Question 56

Cosmides and Tooby tested participants' ability to solve variations of the Wason problem,including ones containing stories about a particular culture.Their results showed thatis not always necessary for conditional reasoning.

A)familiarity
B)a premise
C)validity
D)using a heuristic

Question 57

Mr.Huff always passes back exams to his algebra class in descending order (the highest grade is handed out first).Today,Maddelyn was the first to receive her exam.Joy complained,remarking,"Maddelyn,you always get the highest grade in algebra.It was true all last year and so far this year." Maddelyn was not sure if this was correct.
To figure out if this was true,Maddelyn should

A)search her memory for instances when she did get her exam back first and for instances when she did not.
B)search her memory for instances when she did not get her exam back first.
C)search her memory for instances when she did get her exam back first.
D)wait until the next exam is passed back to see if she gets hers back first.

Question 58

One reason that most people do not easily solve the original (abstract)version of the Wason four-card problem is that they

A)ignore the falsification principle.
B)are influenced by the atmosphere effect.
C)confuse the ideas of validity and truth.
D)incorrectly apply the permission schema.

Question 59

Which of the following statements would most likely invoke the operation of a permission schema?

A)No artists can be beekeepers,but some of the beekeepers must be chemists.
B)All A are B.All B are C.Therefore,all A are C.
C)I forgot to charge my cell phone last night,therefore I missed an important call today.
D)If I get an A on my cognitive psychology exam,I can go out with my friends Saturday night.

Question 60

Consider the following syllogism:
Premise 1: All dogs are cats.
Premise 2: All cats say "meow."
Conclusion: Therefore,all dogs say "meow."
Which statement below describes this syllogism?

A)Both premises are valid
B)The conclusion is valid
C)The conclusion is not valid
D)The conclusion is true

Question 61

Explain the evidence from neuropsychology and brain imaging studies showing how the prefrontal cortex is involved in problem solving and reasoning.

Question 62

What is a categorical syllogism? How well can people judge the validity of categorical syllogisms,and what is the difference between validity and truth in syllogistic reasoning?

Question 63

Describe the four types of conditional syllogisms.For each type,identify which are valid and how well people judge the validity of each.

Question 64

Describe the Wason four-card problem.Explain what the results of experiments that have used abstract and concrete versions of the problem illustrate about how solving this problem is influenced by concreteness,knowledge of regulations,permission schemas,and an evolutionary perspective on cognition.

Question 65

Discuss how a person's judgments are affected by the way choices are framed.Give an example of a choice framed in terms of gains.Give another example of a choice framed in terms of losses.Which decision-making strategy is likely used in each case? Why?