Introduction to Management Science 12th Edition by Bernard Taylor

Exercise 14

Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast ( =.30, =.20) for the annual pool attendance data in Problem. Does this forecast appear to be more or less accurate than the linear trend line model for forecasting annual pool attendance developed in Problem
Problem
The Hillsboro Aquatic Center has an indoor pool with lanes for lap swimming and an open area for recreational swimming and various exercise and water aerobics programs. From June to mid-August it operates on a summer schedule, and from mid-August to the end of May it operates according to normal weekday and weekend schedules. The center's policy for the pool is to have a lifeguard-to-patron ratio of 1:40. The center director wants to develop a forecast of pool attendance for the weekday schedule in order to determine the number of lifeguards to hire. The director believes pool attendance follows a seasonal pattern during the day and has accumulated the following data for average daily attendance for each hour of the day that the pool is open to the public (i.e., there are no swim team practices):
Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these data for hourly pool attendance. Forecast attendance for each hour for year 7 by using a linear trend line estimate for pool attendance in year 7. Do the data appear to have a seasonal pattern