Exam 17: Midterm

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Several challenging trends have prompted a reconsideration of approaches to hazard mitigation. One of these is increased hazard exposure. Global climate change is seen in weather patterns, an increase in the number of extreme weather events, and a rise in sea levels. There is also a global drive toward urbanization, increasing industrialization of agriculture, and decreasing fertility of land. As a result, small farms are being consolidated into large agribusinesses. The displaced farmers are absorbed into cities where they have little access to jobs, education, or health care. Many of the fastest growing cities are located in areas, such as coastal areas of the Pacific Rim, that are exposed to multiple hazards.
Another trend is increased social vulnerability. Some of these trends involve demographic shifts. The wealthiest countries are seeing a rapid increase in the median age of their populations, whereas the poorest are still experiencing population growth. In addition, many countries have experienced a general increase in income inequality, and the United States is no exception. These trends bode ill for the future because the elderly and the poor are among the most vulnerable groups in disasters.
In response to these problems, the Brundtland Report proposed the concept of sustainable development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs UNWCED 1987). Sustainable development recognizes the limits of nature. Disasters are a sign that current development practices are not viable over the long term. At the core of the debate over whether to rebuild low-lying parts of New Orleans is the issue of sustainable development. Sustainable development emphasizes the creation of communities that are less likely to experience major disasters, and can recover from them if they do occur. The United States has become more concerned with sustainability as the costs of disaster response and recovery have risen. There is a connection between disaster reduction and sustainable development. Reports by the President's Council called for ending subsidies to development in floodplains President's Council on Sustainable Development, 1996). Other reports have proposed that development should take into account the natural variability of our planet, including seasonal and longer-term cycles National Science and Technology Council, 1996). To change development styles, people need to reorient their understanding of development. The first change is to realize development is not the same as growth Daly 1996). A city can cease to increase in size, but this does not necessarily mean it stops changing, improving, and developing its capacities. The current economic system is built on the satisfaction of consumers' desires. However, human desires are infinite and the resources of the planet are not. What is needed is a system that preserves the advantages of free market economies, yet places increased emphasis on the satisfaction of human needs rather than wants) and fairness.
One measure of sustainability is the "ecological footprint" Rees, 1992; Wachernagel & Rees, 1996). This is an estimate of the land and water needed to support a particular pattern of consumption and development. Societies differ in the amount of land used to support each individual. For example, each North American has an ecological footprint of 5 hectares 12.5 acres), but this amount of resources is only available to us because other countries' citizens have much smaller ecological footprints.
Although changing public policies to adopt sustainable development is a challenge, recent progress is encouraging. In many areas, a "culture of prevention" is arising as people become more aware of the how they have increased their vulnerability. Knowledge is shared across national boundaries. Governments at all levels are attempting to address these problems. The poor and vulnerable are the focus of many programs. These efforts are likely to reduce disaster vulnerability as local governmental and personal resources increase. Settlements are also increasingly located in less dangerous areas.

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