Exam 17: Expectations, Output and Policy

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Explain the determinants of aggregate private spending.

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Aggregate private spending (A) equals consumption (C) plus investment (I). So, A is a function of current income, future expected income, current taxes, future expected taxes, current interest rates, and future expected interest rates.

Suppose the central bank implements monetary expansion in the current period and is expected to continue this monetary expansion in the future. Use the IS- LM model to illustrate graphically and explain the effects of this policy on current output and the current interest rate.

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In the current period, the LM curve will shift down causing the current interest rate to fall and current output to rise. The expectation that this will continue will cause individuals to expect lower future rates and higher future output. The lower future rates will raise current consumption and current investment. The higher future output will do the same. So, we will also see a rightward shift in the current IS curve. This will tend to raise current interest rate and current output as well.

Assume individuals consider only the long- run effects of changes in future macro variables when forming expectations of future output and future interest rates. Suppose current government spending increases and that individuals expect future government spending to increase. Given this information, we know with certainty that:

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D

Adaptive expectations assume that individuals:

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The IS curve becomes steeper when:

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Assume individuals consider only the short- run effects of changes in future macro variables when forming expectations of future output and future interest rates. Suppose individuals expect the central bank to pursue monetary expansion in the future. Given this information, we know with certainty that:

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"Animal spirits" refers to:

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Assume individuals consider only the short- run effects of changes in future macro variables when forming expectations of future output and future interest rates. Suppose individuals expect future government spending to increase. Given this information, individuals will expect:

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Assume individuals consider only the medium- run effects of changes in future macro variables when forming expectations of future output and future interest rates. Suppose individuals expect future government spending to increase. Given this information, individuals will expect:

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Compare the following three ways to model expectations: animal spirits, adaptive expectations, and rational expectations.

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Which of the following will cause a rightward shift of the IS curve?

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A decrease in the expected future interest rate will cause:

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Assume individuals consider only the short- run effects of changes in future macro variables when forming expectations of future output and future interest rates. A permanent decrease in the interest rate, with no other policy change implemented or anticipated, will most likely cause:

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Suppose individuals expect that interest rates will fall in the future. Also assume that the RBA wants to prevent any change in current output. Given this goal of the RBA, the RBA should implement a policy in the current period that:

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Suppose there is a decrease in the expected future interest rate. This will cause which of the following to occur?

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What is quantitative easing?

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Suppose there is an increase in expected future taxes. This will cause which of the following to occur?

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Changes in future expected interest rates can affect current consumption. Suppose individuals expect future interest rates to increase. Consumption will change as a result of this expectation when which of the following change?

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Explain whether a policy that results in a larger budget deficit in the current period can lead to a reduction in current output.

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Explain what effect an increase in future expected output will have on the IS curve and LM curve in the current period.

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