Exam 11: Time and Uncertainty

John is trying to decide whether to expand his business or not. If he continues his business as it is, with no expansion, there is a 50 percent chance his revenue will be $100,000 and a 50 percent chance his revenue will be $300,000. If he does expand, it will cost him $150,000, and there is a 30 percent chance his revenue will be $100,000; a 30 percent chance his revenue will be $300,000; and a 40 percent chance his revenue will be $500,000.John should expect that the value of his revenue will be ________ if he expands and ________ if he does not expand.

People who exhibit risk-seeking behavior:

Consider two farmers, Samantha and William. Samantha grows sweet potatoes, which tend to do well during dry seasons. William grows watermelons, which tend to do better during rainy seasons. If the weather is dry this year, Samantha will earn $100,000 and William will earn $10,000. If the weather is rainy this year, Samantha will earn $30,000 and William will earn $120,000. There is a 50 percent chance of dry weather and a 50 percent chance of rainy weather this year.Suppose Samantha and William are considering merging their farms. If they do merge, they will split their profits equally. Which of the following statements is true?Samantha will prefer to merge, but William will prefer to keep his farm separate.The expected value of William's earnings if the farms merge is $65,000.The expected value of William's earnings if they do not merge is $65,000.

Bailey owns a farm, and her annual crop is dependent on the weather. If it has been an exceptionally rainy year, she can expect to earn $70,000. If it has been a very dry year, she will earn $20,000. If the weather is moderate, she will earn $50,000. There is a 20 percent chance that it will be a very rainy year; a 30 percent chance that it will be a very dry year; and a 50 percent chance that the weather will be moderate. What is the expected value of Bailey's earnings?

The interest rate you typically earn on a deposit at a bank:

Diversification involves investing all your money in:

The decision to buy a $100 _______ is complicated by the value of money changing over time.

Someone who is risk-averse is likely to:

Suppose Jack and Kate are at the town fair and are choosing which game to play. The first game has a bag with four marbles in it-1 red marble and 3 blue ones. The player draws one marble from the bag; if it is red, $20 is won, and if it is blue, $1 is won. The second game has a bag with 10 marbles in it-1 red, 4 blue, and 5 green. The player draws one marble from the bag; $20 is won if it is red, $5 is won if it is blue, and $1 is won if it is green. Both games cost $5 to play.If Kate decides to play the second game, what is the probability that she will pull out a green marble?

Different banks:

Suppose Jack and Kate are at the town fair and are choosing which game to play. The first game has a bag with four marbles in it-1 red marble and 3 blue ones. The player draws one marble from the bag; if it is red, $20 is won, and if it is blue, $1 is won. The second game has a bag with 10 marbles in it-1 red, 4 blue, and 5 green. The player draws one marble from the bag; $20 is won if it is red, $5 is won if it is blue, and $1 is won if it is green. Both games cost $5 to play.If Kate decides to play the second game, what is the expected value of her payoff?

Jude owns a house worth $250,000 in an area that is prone to tornadoes. Suppose there is a 5 percent chance during the next year that Jude's house will incur $50,000 of damage from a tornado and a 1 percent chance that his home will be completely destroyed by a tornado. What is the expected value of Jude's house next year?

Insurance companies:

Present value is how much a certain amount of money:

Which of the following statements about the decision to purchase insurance is true?

People who have a high willingness to take on situations with risk are considered to be:

Matty and Rudy are the same age, live in the same town, and hold similar jobs a similar distance from their respective homes. They are so similar, in fact, that they are both offered the same auto insurance options. However, Matty has never been a particularly good driver, so he buys high-coverage auto insurance. Rudy, on the other hand, takes pride in being an excellent driver and thus only carries the minimum amount of insurance required. This example illustrates the potential for:

Jackson owns a house worth $350,000 in an area that is prone to hurricanes. Suppose there is a 12 percent chance during the next year that Jackson's house will incur $25,000 of damage from a hurricane and a 2 percent chance that his home will be completely destroyed by a hurricane. Suppose an insurance company offers him a policy that fully reimburses him in the event that his home is damaged by a hurricane. The insurance company charges a $10,000 premium for this policy. Which of the following statements is true? If Jackson is risk averse, he will definitely buy the insurance. The expected value of Jackson's house if he purchases the insurance is $340,000. The expected value of Jackson's house if he does not purchase the insurance is $340,000.

John is trying to decide whether to expand his business or not. If he continues his business as it is, with no expansion, there is a 50 percent chance his revenue will be $100,000 and a 50 percent chance his revenue will be $300,000. If he does expand, it will cost him $150,000, and there is a 30 percent chance his revenue will be $100,000; a 30 percent chance his revenue will be $300,000; and a 40 percent chance his revenue will be $500,000.To make the best decision, John should compare:

One can think of interest as: