Exam 13: Time Series: Dealing With Stickiness Over Time
Including a lagged dependent variable in an OLS model when autocorrelation exists will:
B
Please describe the steps involved in diagnosing autocorrelation when using the graphical method.
Run a standard OLS model that ignores autocorrelation, and generate the residuals. These residuals are calculated as et =Yt-β0hat - β1hatXt (include all independent variables in regression). Then we graph these residuals over time. If the errors move slowly, then they are positively correlated, while if they bounce around violently, then they are negatively correlated. On the other hand, if we can't tell, then chances are that the errors are not correlated.
Using equations, describe/show the steps needed to be undertaken in order to p-transform data.
1. Write an equation for the lagged value of , which simply requires replacing the subscripts with subscripts in the original model:
(13.5)
2. Multiply both sides of Equation 13.5 by :
(13.6) 3. Subtract the equation for (Equation 13.6) from Equation 13.4. That is, subtract the left side of Equation 13.6 from the left side of Equation 13.4 and subtract the right side of 13.6 from the right side of Equation 13.4.
4. Notice in Equation 13.2 that and rewrite:
5. Rearrange things a bit:
6. Use squiggles to indicate the transformed variables (where ) and
Explain the three ways in which a dynamic model differs from a standard OLS model.
Which of the following correctly states concerns about stationarity for the following model:
Yt = Yt-1 + 0 + 1Xt + t
The interpretation of the coefficient in a transformed model is the same as in a regular OLS model.
Describe how you interpret the coefficient results in a dynamic model.
One way to detect autocorrelation is to graph the residuals from a standard OLS model over time.
We face the largest risk of getting a spurious result when:
In time series data, if errors are correlated over time, than B1hat is biased.
In autoregressive models, the dependent variable depends directly on the value of the dependent variable in the previous period.
Which of the following is one way to detect autocorrelation?
Which of the following is the correct final equation for a p transformed model?
Which of the following is the most serious problem that can arise when dealing with non-stationary data with a unit-root?
Which of the following is a consequence of failing to use a -transformed model when errors are correlated?
The interpretation of the coefficient in a dynamic model is the same as in a regular OLS model.
Which of the following is not a way in which dynamic models differ from OLS?
Time series data is data for many units at a given point in time.
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