Exam 13: Time Series: Dealing With Stickiness Over Time

arrow
  • Select Tags
search iconSearch Question
flashcardsStudy Flashcards
  • Select Tags

Including a lagged dependent variable in an OLS model when autocorrelation exists will:

Free
(Multiple Choice)
4.8/5
(36)
Correct Answer:
Verified

B

Please describe the steps involved in diagnosing autocorrelation when using the graphical method.

Free
(Essay)
4.7/5
(28)
Correct Answer:
Verified

Run a standard OLS model that ignores autocorrelation, and generate the residuals. These residuals are calculated as et =Yt0hat - β1hatXt (include all independent variables in regression). Then we graph these residuals over time. If the errors move slowly, then they are positively correlated, while if they bounce around violently, then they are negatively correlated. On the other hand, if we can't tell, then chances are that the errors are not correlated.

Using equations, describe/show the steps needed to be undertaken in order to p-transform data.

Free
(Essay)
4.7/5
(38)
Correct Answer:
Verified

1. Write an equation for the lagged value of YtY _ { t } , which simply requires replacing the tt subscripts with t1t - 1 subscripts in the original model:
Yt1=β0+β1Xt1+ϵt1Y _ { t - 1 } = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t - 1 } + \epsilon _ { t - 1 } \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad (13.5)
2. Multiply both sides of Equation 13.5 by ρ\rho :
ρYt1=ρβ0+ρβ1Xt1+ρϵt1\rho Y _ { t - 1 } = \rho \beta _ { 0 } + \rho \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t - 1 } + \rho \epsilon _ { t - 1 } \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad (13.6) 3. Subtract the equation for ρYt1\rho Y _ { t - 1 } (Equation 13.6) from Equation 13.4. That is, subtract the left side of Equation 13.6 from the left side of Equation 13.4 and subtract the right side of 13.6 from the right side of Equation 13.4.
YtρYt1=β0ρβ0+β1Xtρβ1Xt1+ϵtρϵt1Y _ { t } - \rho Y _ { t - 1 } = \beta _ { 0 } - \rho \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t } - \rho \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t - 1 } + \epsilon _ { t } - \rho \epsilon _ { t - 1 }
4. Notice in Equation 13.2 that ϵtρϵt1=νt\epsilon _ { t } - \rho \epsilon _ { t - 1 } = \nu _ { t } and rewrite:
YtρYt1=β0ρβ0+β1Xtρβ1Xt1+νtY _ { t } - \rho Y _ { t - 1 } = \beta _ { 0 } - \rho \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t } - \rho \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t - 1 } + \nu _ { t }
5. Rearrange things a bit:
YtρYt1=β0(1ρ)+β1(XtρXt1)+νtY _ { t } - \rho Y _ { t - 1 } = \beta _ { 0 } ( 1 - \rho ) + \beta _ { 1 } \left( X _ { t } - \rho X _ { t - 1 } \right) + \nu _ { t }
6. Use squiggles to indicate the transformed variables (where Y~t=YtρYt1,β~0=β0(1ρ\tilde { Y } _ { t } = Y _ { t } - \rho Y _ { t - 1 } , \tilde { \beta } _ { 0 } = \beta _ { 0 } ( 1 - \rho ) and X~t=XtρXt1)\left. \tilde { X } _ { t } = X _ { t } - \rho X _ { t - 1 } \right)
Y~t=β~0+β1X~t+νt\tilde { Y } _ { t } = \tilde { \beta } _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } \tilde { X } _ { t } + \nu _ { t }

Explain the three ways in which a dynamic model differs from a standard OLS model.

(Essay)
4.9/5
(31)

Which of the following correctly states concerns about stationarity for the following model: Yt = γ\gamma Yt-1 + β\beta 0 + β\beta 1Xt + ε\varepsilon t

(Multiple Choice)
4.8/5
(38)

One of the methods of dealing with non-stationary data is:

(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
(30)

A stationary variable has:

(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
(40)

The interpretation of the coefficient in a ρ\rho transformed model is the same as in a regular OLS model.

(True/False)
4.9/5
(36)

Describe how you interpret the coefficient results in a dynamic model.

(Essay)
4.8/5
(43)

One way to detect autocorrelation is to graph the residuals from a standard OLS model over time.

(True/False)
4.7/5
(36)

We face the largest risk of getting a spurious result when:

(Multiple Choice)
4.8/5
(39)

In time series data, if errors are correlated over time, than B1hat is biased.

(True/False)
4.8/5
(28)

In autoregressive models, the dependent variable depends directly on the value of the dependent variable in the previous period.

(True/False)
4.7/5
(36)

Which of the following is one way to detect autocorrelation?

(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
(38)

Which of the following is the correct final equation for a p transformed model?

(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
(38)

Which of the following is the most serious problem that can arise when dealing with non-stationary data with a unit-root?

(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
(42)

Which of the following is a consequence of failing to use a ρ\rho -transformed model when errors are correlated?

(Multiple Choice)
4.8/5
(36)

The interpretation of the coefficient in a dynamic model is the same as in a regular OLS model.

(True/False)
4.9/5
(39)

Which of the following is not a way in which dynamic models differ from OLS?

(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
(33)

Time series data is data for many units at a given point in time.

(True/False)
4.8/5
(36)
Showing 1 - 20 of 21
close modal

Filters

  • Essay(0)
  • Multiple Choice(0)
  • Short Answer(0)
  • True False(0)
  • Matching(0)