Question 1

Probability can be expressed as:

Accepted Answer

A)  long-run. 
B)  subjective. 
C)  logical. 
D)  All of the above. 
A)  long-run. 
B)  subjective. 
C)  logical. 
D)  All of the above.

Question 2

Which of the following is not a technique for forecasting probability?

Accepted Answer

A)  Logical forecasting 
B)  Direct forecasting 
C)  Odds forecasting 
D)  Comparison forecasting 
A)  Logical forecasting 
B)  Direct forecasting 
C)  Odds forecasting 
D)  Comparison forecasting

Question 3

Which type of forecasting presents the decision maker with a choice between participating in one or two lottery-type games?

Accepted Answer

A)  Comparison forecasting 
B)  Odds forecasting 
C)  Direct probability forecasting 
D)  Calibration forecasting 
A)  Comparison forecasting 
B)  Odds forecasting 
C)  Direct probability forecasting 
D)  Calibration forecasting

Question 4

The priorities of a decision maker are affected by the scope of the problem.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Identify the steps in creating a simulation model.

Accepted Answer

1) State the objective of the model
2) D

Question 6

Rather than a single probability estimation we might benefit from an estimation of the worst-case scenario and the best-case scenario. Properly constructed, we can say that the actual probability estimate lies somewhere between these two values. This range of values is referred to as a ________.

Accepted Answer

A)  probability estimation 
B)  t-test 
C)  logical probability 
D)  confidence interval 
A)  probability estimation 
B)  t-test 
C)  logical probability 
D)  confidence interval

Question 7

In an influence diagram, the three components of a problem structure are represented by specific shapes and are combined and connected to represent the problem being modeled.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

In a deterministic model, a variable can have multiple values and must therefore be described by a probability function.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  Problem structure 
B)  Availability 
C)  Problem size 
D)  All of the above. 
A)  Problem structure 
B)  Availability 
C)  Problem size 
D)  All of the above.

Question 10

Which of the following is not a decision tree rule?

Accepted Answer

A)  The branches represent all possible outcomes. 
B)  The branches are structured to allow for multiple choices per branch. 
C)  All possible alternatives are fully mapped. 
D)  None of the above. 
A)  The branches represent all possible outcomes. 
B)  The branches are structured to allow for multiple choices per branch. 
C)  All possible alternatives are fully mapped. 
D)  None of the above.

Question 11

Which of the following is not a tool for modeling the structure of a problem?

Accepted Answer

A)  Problem analysis case 
B)  Decision tree 
C)  Influence diagram 
D)  None of the above. 
A)  Problem analysis case 
B)  Decision tree 
C)  Influence diagram 
D)  None of the above.

Question 12

A designer must never revise a decision made at one point in the process to account for a change made in another.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  Precision 
B)  Complexity 
C)  DSS designer preference 
D)  All of the above. 
A)  Precision 
B)  Complexity 
C)  DSS designer preference 
D)  All of the above.

Question 14

Which of the following is not part of the design of a problem structure?

Accepted Answer

A)  The relationship between elemental details and the final appearance of the solution 
B)  The interim solution 
C)  The final problem solution 
D)  None of the above. 
A)  The relationship between elemental details and the final appearance of the solution 
B)  The interim solution 
C)  The final problem solution 
D)  None of the above.

Question 15

In a stochastic model, no variable can take on more than one value at a given time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

A method used to determine the degree to which the alteration of an underlying assumption has a material effect on the results obtained from a model is known as:

Accepted Answer

A)  simulation. 
B)  sensitivity analysis. 
C)  discriminant validity. 
D)  None of the above. 
A)  simulation. 
B)  sensitivity analysis. 
C)  discriminant validity. 
D)  None of the above.

Question 17

Which of the following is true of Howard's Test of Clarity?

Accepted Answer

A)  The influence diagram contains at least three alternatives. 
B)  All of the components of the context model are clearly defined. 
C)  Long-run probability is utilized. 
D)  All of the above. 
A)  The influence diagram contains at least three alternatives. 
B)  All of the components of the context model are clearly defined. 
C)  Long-run probability is utilized. 
D)  All of the above.

Question 18

According to Howard's test of clarity, the events of every model should be fully determined without interpretation.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Although the solution may be obvious, problem structures always have a clear beginning.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

Which of the following is not a suitable technique for eliciting numerical subjective probability estimations that can then be combined with other estimates using the laws of probability?

Accepted Answer

A)  Direct forecasting 
B)  Odds forecasting 
C)  Ad hoc forecasting 
D)  Comparison forecasting 
A)  Direct forecasting 
B)  Odds forecasting 
C)  Ad hoc forecasting 
D)  Comparison forecasting

Probability can be expressed as:

Which of the following is not a technique for forecasting probability?

Which type of forecasting presents the decision maker with a choice between participating in one or two lottery-type games?

The priorities of a decision maker are affected by the scope of the problem.

Identify the steps in creating a simulation model.

Rather than a single probability estimation we might benefit from an estimation of the worst-case scenario and the best-case scenario. Properly constructed, we can say that the actual probability estimate lies somewhere between these two values. This range of values is referred to as a ________.

In an influence diagram, the three components of a problem structure are represented by specific shapes and are combined and connected to represent the problem being modeled.

In a deterministic model, a variable can have multiple values and must therefore be described by a probability function.

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

Which of the following is not a decision tree rule?

Which of the following is not a tool for modeling the structure of a problem?

A designer must never revise a decision made at one point in the process to account for a change made in another.

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

Which of the following is not part of the design of a problem structure?

In a stochastic model, no variable can take on more than one value at a given time.

A method used to determine the degree to which the alteration of an underlying assumption has a material effect on the results obtained from a model is known as:

Which of the following is true of Howard's Test of Clarity?

According to Howard's test of clarity, the events of every model should be fully determined without interpretation.

Although the solution may be obvious, problem structures always have a clear beginning.

Which of the following is not a suitable technique for eliciting numerical subjective probability estimations that can then be combined with other estimates using the laws of probability?

Introduction to Decision Support Systems

Decisions and Decision Makers

Decisions in the Organization

Group Decision Support and Groupware Technologies

Executive Information Systems

Expert Systems and Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Engineering and Acquisition

Machines That Can Learn

The Data Warehouse

Data Mining and Data Visualization

Designing and Building the Data Warehouse

Decisions in the Organization

Designing and Building Decision Support Systems

Implementing and Integrating Decision Support Systems

Creative Decision Making and Problem Solving

Intelligent Software Agents, Bots, Delegation, and Agency

Decision Support in the Twenty-First Century

Filters

Exam 4: Modeling Decision Processes

Probability can be expressed as:

Which of the following is not a technique for forecasting probability?

Which type of forecasting presents the decision maker with a choice between participating in one or two lottery-type games?

The priorities of a decision maker are affected by the scope of the problem.

Identify the steps in creating a simulation model.

Rather than a single probability estimation we might benefit from an estimation of the worst-case scenario and the best-case scenario. Properly constructed, we can say that the actual probability estimate lies somewhere between these two values. This range of values is referred to as a ________.

In an influence diagram, the three components of a problem structure are represented by specific shapes and are combined and connected to represent the problem being modeled.

In a deterministic model, a variable can have multiple values and must therefore be described by a probability function.

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

Which of the following is not a decision tree rule?

Which of the following is not a tool for modeling the structure of a problem?

A designer must never revise a decision made at one point in the process to account for a change made in another.

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

Which of the following is not part of the design of a problem structure?

In a stochastic model, no variable can take on more than one value at a given time.

A method used to determine the degree to which the alteration of an underlying assumption has a material effect on the results obtained from a model is known as:

Which of the following is true of Howard's Test of Clarity?

According to Howard's test of clarity, the events of every model should be fully determined without interpretation.

Although the solution may be obvious, problem structures always have a clear beginning.

Which of the following is not a suitable technique for eliciting numerical subjective probability estimations that can then be combined with other estimates using the laws of probability?

Introduction to Decision Support Systems

Decisions and Decision Makers

Decisions in the Organization

Group Decision Support and Groupware Technologies

Executive Information Systems

Expert Systems and Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Engineering and Acquisition

Machines That Can Learn

The Data Warehouse

Data Mining and Data Visualization

Designing and Building the Data Warehouse

Decisions in the Organization

Designing and Building Decision Support Systems

Implementing and Integrating Decision Support Systems

Creative Decision Making and Problem Solving

Intelligent Software Agents, Bots, Delegation, and Agency

Decision Support in the Twenty-First Century

Filters