Exam 11: Disagreeing With Ourselves: Projection and Hindsight Biases

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The hot-cold empathy gap refers to individual's inability to understand other's feelings.

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Visceral factors may drive individuals to make decisions in a similar fashion to projection bias.

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Consider equation 11.34 and the model presented above. The interpretation of equation 11.34 is that for a given x2x_{2} , the marginal utility I receive from x1x_{1} increases as my visceral state becomes hotter. That is, without adjusting consumption of x2x_{2} , as my visceral state becomes hotter than the marginal utility I get from an increase in x1x_{1} increases.

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Hindsight bias occurs when we do not perfectly remember the information our past self had at the time of making a decision.

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Consider the following inter-temporal choice problem, where ss^{\prime} is the state today and ss is the state tomorrow. maxc1u(c1,s)+δ[(1α)u(wc1,s)+αu(wc1,s)\max _{c_{1}} u\left(c_{1}, s^{\prime}\right)+\delta\left[(1-\alpha) u\left(w-c_{1}, s\right)+\alpha u\left(w-c_{1}, s^{\prime}\right)\right. . This problem reduces to the rational model of inter-temporal choice when α=1\alpha=1 .

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The hot state refers to which of the following:

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Consider example 4. The authors wanted to know whether people had a tendency to buy cold-weather clothes through catalogs when the current weather in their location was cold due to a projection bias. Showing that purchases of winter gear increased during cold Weather provide confirmatory information. What piece of information provides disconfirmatory information?

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Using projection bias to describe addictive behaviors allows us to model the idea that individuals were not aware of how consumption today would affect their desire to consume tomorrow.

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Consider a model of inter-temporal choice, with utility function u(c1,c2)u\left(c_{1}, c_{2}\right) . If c1c_{1} and c2c_{2} are complements then which of the following must be true?

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