Question 1

Consider the farmer's problem that starts on page 8-2. Describe the two levels of uncertainty present the farmer's information search.

Accepted Answer

The first level of uncertainty concerns

Question 2

Overconfidence can refer to beliefs that are overly certain, beliefs that absolutely overestimate one's ability and beliefs that overplace an individual relative to others.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

$95 \%$ confidence intervals should contain the truth $95 \%$ of the time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Overconfidence does not adversely affect individual behavior if the overconfident beliefs do not change the individual's actions.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Sally is asked 10 questions and is told to give her answer in intervals such that $20 \%$ of the time the correct answer fell above the interval and $20 \%$ of the time the answer fell below
The interval. The experimenter concludes that Sally is under-confident. For how many questions did the true answer fall within Sally's given intervals?

Accepted Answer

A)  3 
B)  6 
C)  5 
D)  7 
A)  3 
B)  6 
C)  5 
D)  7

Question 6

Pilar just started her job at the weather forecasting agency. Brock has made forecasts for the agency for over 40 years. Based on the data, Pilar and Brock agree that sun is more likely than rain tomorrow. Who is more likely to predict $60 \%$ chance of sun and who is more likely to predict $90 \%$ chance of sun.

Accepted Answer

A)  Bob: $60 \%$; Pilar: $90 \%$ 
B)  Bob: $90 \%$; Pilar: $60 \%$ 
C)  Bob: $60 \%$; Pilar: $60 \%$ 
D)  Bob: $90 \%$; Pilar: $90 \%$ 
A)  Bob: $60 \%$; Pilar: $90 \%$ 
B)  Bob: $90 \%$; Pilar: $60 \%$ 
C)  Bob: $60 \%$; Pilar: $60 \%$ 
D)  Bob: $90 \%$; Pilar: $90 \%$

Question 7

Tony was class president of his senior class in high school. He was very involved and knew just about everyone in his class. Tony's best subjects were chemistry and literature and his worst subjects were physics, math and geology. Which of Tony's confidence intervals should be wider: the $90 \%$ confidence interval about the number of kids in your high school graduating class or the $90 \%$ confidence interval about the number of pebbles in a 1 liter bucket?

Accepted Answer

Presumably Tony knows more about the num

Question 8

A person can only be overconfident in their own knowledge if they have a preferred outcome.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Sally is asked 10 questions and is told to give her answer in intervals such that $10 \%$ of the time the correct answer fell above the interval and $10 \%$ of the time the answer fell below the interval. Which confidence interval is Sally being asked to give?

Accepted Answer

A)  $90 \%$ 
B)  $10 \%$ 
C)  $20 \%$ 
D)  $80 \%$ 
A)  $90 \%$ 
B)  $10 \%$ 
C)  $20 \%$ 
D)  $80 \%$

Question 10

Overconfidence in one's own knowledge is best described as being overly certain about one's knowledge or probabilistic belief.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Consider the farmer's problem that starts on page 8-2. Describe the two levels of uncertainty present the farmer's information search.

Overconfidence can refer to beliefs that are overly certain, beliefs that absolutely overestimate one's ability and beliefs that overplace an individual relative to others.

$95 \%$ confidence intervals should contain the truth $95 \%$ of the time.

Overconfidence does not adversely affect individual behavior if the overconfident beliefs do not change the individual's actions.

A person can only be overconfident in their own knowledge if they have a preferred outcome.

Sally is asked 10 questions and is told to give her answer in intervals such that $10 \%$ of the time the correct answer fell above the interval and $10 \%$ of the time the answer fell below the interval. Which confidence interval is Sally being asked to give?

Overconfidence in one's own knowledge is best described as being overly certain about one's knowledge or probabilistic belief.

Rationality, Irrationality, and Rationalization

Transaction Utility and Consumer Pricing

Mental Accounting

Status Quo Bias and Default Options

The Winners Curse and Auction Behavior

Bracketing Decisions

Representativeness and Availability

Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty

Prospect Theory and Decision Under Risk or Uncertainty

Disagreeing With Ourselves: Projection and Hindsight Biases

Naïve Procrastination

Committing and Uncommitting

Selfishness and Altruism

Fairness and Psychological Games

Trust and Reciprocity

Filters

Exam 8: Confirmation and Overconfidence

Consider the farmer's problem that starts on page 8-2. Describe the two levels of uncertainty present the farmer's information search.

Overconfidence can refer to beliefs that are overly certain, beliefs that absolutely overestimate one's ability and beliefs that overplace an individual relative to others.

95%95 \%95% confidence intervals should contain the truth 95%95 \%95% of the time.

Overconfidence does not adversely affect individual behavior if the overconfident beliefs do not change the individual's actions.

A person can only be overconfident in their own knowledge if they have a preferred outcome.

Sally is asked 10 questions and is told to give her answer in intervals such that 10%10 \%10% of the time the correct answer fell above the interval and 10%10 \%10% of the time the answer fell below the interval. Which confidence interval is Sally being asked to give?

Overconfidence in one's own knowledge is best described as being overly certain about one's knowledge or probabilistic belief.

Rationality, Irrationality, and Rationalization

Transaction Utility and Consumer Pricing

Mental Accounting

Status Quo Bias and Default Options

The Winners Curse and Auction Behavior

Bracketing Decisions

Representativeness and Availability

Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty

Prospect Theory and Decision Under Risk or Uncertainty

Disagreeing With Ourselves: Projection and Hindsight Biases

Naïve Procrastination

Committing and Uncommitting

Selfishness and Altruism

Fairness and Psychological Games

Trust and Reciprocity

Filters

$95 \%$ confidence intervals should contain the truth $95 \%$ of the time.

Sally is asked 10 questions and is told to give her answer in intervals such that $10 \%$ of the time the correct answer fell above the interval and $10 \%$ of the time the answer fell below the interval. Which confidence interval is Sally being asked to give?