Exam 15: Analyzing the Results

When using the scenario approach,an analyst should not shortcut the process by deducting the face value of debt from the scenario-weighted value of operations,because this would seriously underestimate the equity value,as the value of debt is different in each scenario.

If one arrives at a company value based on the valuation model that is significantly different from the market value,the default assumption should be that the market valuation is incorrect.

When estimating a company's value,falling within a range of plus or minus 15 percent of the actual valuation is appropriate,as market valuations of this amount for individual stocks are fairly common.

Which of the following are questions an analyst should ask when assessing the economic consistency of a model? I.Are the patterns chartable? II.Are the patterns intended? III.Are the patterns reasonable? IV.Are the patterns consistent with industry dynamics?

You decide to value a steady‐state company using probability‐weighted scenario analysis.In scenario 1,NOPLAT is expected to grow at 8 percent,and ROIC equals 20 percent.In scenario 2,NOPLAT is expected to grow at 2 percent,and ROIC equals 10 percent.Next year's NOPLAT is expected to equal $100 million,and the weighted average cost of capital is 12 percent.Using the key value driver formula,what is the enterprise value in each scenario? If each scenario is equally likely,what is the enterprise value for the company?

A colleague recommends a shortcut to value the company in the preceding question.Rather than compute each scenario separately,the colleague recommends averaging each input,such that growth equals 5 percent and ROIC equals 15 percent.This will lead to the same enterprise value as found in that question.

In a scenario analysis,which of the following are considerations when reviewing the assumptions of a model? I )The sensitivity of the results to broad economic conditions. II )The level of competitiveness of the industry. III )The internal capabilities of the company to achieve the forecasts of output and growth. IV )The ability of the company to raise the necessary capital from the markets.

List the criteria for assessing whether a model is technically robust with respect to the following three perspectives: unadjusted financial statements,rearranged financial statements,and statement of cash flows.

An adjustment in the dividend payout ratio should change the value of the firm under the recommended valuation approach in the text.

To prioritize strategic actions,the analyst should:

When making forecasts,increasing one variable usually means decreasing another.Which of the following are possible common trade-offs that should be considered in making such forecasts? I.Product volume and prices. II.Lower inventory and higher sales. III.Higher growth and lower margin.

An analyst is estimating the ROIC of a company that has zero fixed costs per unit and pays no taxes.The analyst makes the following forecasts: Sales next year will equal 250 units and will increase at 10 percent for each of the two following years.Prices per unit will be $102,$104,and $110,which simply embody inflation forecasts.Costs per unit will be constant at $90.Current capital invested is $20,000,and the firm will reinvest 50 percent of profits.What is the ROIC for each of the three years? If this is a competitive industry,are the results realistic?

The forecasts in the prior question used several assumptions.Repeat the forecasts where (scenario A )costs increase with inflation,but all other assumptions hold (costs are $90.0,$91.8,and $97.1 per unit in each of the next three years,respectively);and (scenario B )sales units remain constant,but all the other assumptions hold (including constant costs).What is the ROIC under each assumption? Which assumption is responsible for a significant increase in ROIC?

In creating scenarios that will determine a firm's future cash flow and present value in a sensitivity analysis,list the four categories of assumptions the analyst should critically review.

Adjustments in the dividend payout ratio should be used to ensure that the model is technically correct.

To ensure that the model is economically consistent,the continuing value formula should be applied when company operations are in a steady state.