Exam 24: Decision Trees,real Options and Other Capital Budgeting Techniques

Which of the following is NOT a real option?

A project has an expected NPV of -$250,based on the traditional DCF analysis.However,the real option valuation shows that the expected NPV is $750.What is the value of the option?

Which of the following is an example of a real option?

Nebraska Pharmaceuticals Company (NPC) is considering a project that has an up-front cost at t = 0 of $1,500.(All dollars in this problem are in thousands.) The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether a competitor's product is approved by Health Canada.If Health Canada rejects the competitive product,NPC's product will have high sales and cash flows,but if the competitive product is approved,that will negatively impact NPC.There is a 75% chance that the competitive product will be rejected,in which case NPC's expected cash flows will be $500 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7).There is a 25% chance that the competitor's product will be approved,in which case the expected cash flows will be only $25 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7).NPC will know for certain 1 year from today whether the competitor's product has been approved.​NPC is considering whether to make the investment today or to wait a year to find out Health Canada's decision.If it waits a year,the project's up-front cost at t = 1 will remain at $1,500; the subsequent cash flows will remain at $500 per year if the competitor's product is rejected and $25 per year if the alternative product is approved.However,if NPC decides to wait,the subsequent cash flows will be received only for six years (t = 2 … 7).​Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 10%,calculate the effect on the proposed project's risk,by waiting to undertake the project.By how much will delaying reduce the project's coefficient of variation?

Which circumstance will NOT increase the value of a real option?

Texas Wildcatters Inc.(TWI) is in the business of finding and developing oil properties and then selling the successful ones to major oil refining companies.TWI is now considering a new potential field,and its geologists have developed the following data,in thousands of dollars.t = 0.A $400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0.The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project.t = 1.If the feasibility study indicates good potential,the firm would spend $1,000 at t = 1 to drill exploratory wells.The best estimate is that there is an 80% probability that the exploratory wells would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done,and a 20% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned.t = 2.If the exploratory wells test positive,TWI would go ahead and spend $10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2.The best estimate now is that there is a 60% probability that the results would be very good and a 40% probability that results would be poor and the field would be abandoned.t = 3.If the full drilling program is carried out,there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a $25,000 cash inflow at t = 3,and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then receiving only a $10,000 inflow.Since the project is considered to be quite risky,a 20% cost of capital is used.What is the project's expected NPV,in thousands of dollars?

Diplomat.comDiplomat.com is considering a project that has an up-front cost of $3 million and is expected to produce a cash flow of $500,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. The project's cost of capital is 10%. -Refer to Scenario: Diplomat.com.If Diplomat.com goes ahead with this project today,it will obtain knowledge that will give rise to additional opportunities 5 years from now (at t = 5).The company can decide at t = 5 whether or not it wants to pursue these additional opportunities.Based on the best information available today,there is a 35% probability that the outlook will be favourable,in which case the future investment opportunity will have a net present value of $6 million at t = 5.There is a 65% probability that the outlook will be unfavourable,in which case the future investment opportunity will have a net present value of -$6 million at t = 5.Diplomat.com does not have to decide today whether it wants to pursue the additional opportunity.Instead,it can wait to see what the outlook is.However,the company cannot pursue the future opportunity unless it makes the $3 million investment today.What is the estimated net present value of the project,after consideration of the potential future opportunity?

Diplomat.comDiplomat.com is considering a project that has an up-front cost of $3 million and is expected to produce a cash flow of $500,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. The project's cost of capital is 10%. -Refer to Scenario: Diplomat.Based on the above data,what is the project's net present value?

Which of the following best describes real options?

OklahomaOklahoma Instruments (OI) is considering a project called F-200 that has an up-front cost of $250,000. The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether another of its products, F-100, becomes an industry standard. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be $110,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will not become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be $25,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. Assume that the cost of capital is 12%. -Refer to Scenario: Oklahoma.Now assume that 1 year from now OI will know if the F-100 has become the industry standard.Also assume that after receiving the cash flows at t = 1,OI has the option to abandon the project,in which case it will receive an additional $100,000 at t = 1 but no cash flows after t = 1.Assuming that the cost of capital remains at 12%,what is the estimated value of the abandonment option?

Which of the following best describes under what circumstances a "real option" would exist?

Real options affect the size,but not the risk,of a project's expected cash flows.

Lighthouse Corporation uses the NPV method for selecting projects,and it does a reasonably good job of estimating projects' sales and costs.However,it never considers real options that might be associated with projects.Which of the following statements is most likely to describe its situation?

Real options are most valuable when the underlying source of risk is very low.

Texas Wildcatters Inc.(TWI) is in the business of finding and developing oil properties and then selling the successful ones to major oil refining companies.TWI is now considering a new potential field,and its geologists have developed the following data,in thousands of dollars.​t = 0.A $400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0.The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project.​t = 1.If the feasibility study indicates good potential,the firm would spend $1,000 at t = 1 to drill exploratory wells.The best estimate is that there is an 80% probability that the exploratory wells would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done,and a 20% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned.​t = 2.If the exploratory wells test positive,TWI would go ahead and spend $10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2.The best estimate now is that there is a 60% probability that the results would be very good and a 40% probability that results would be poor and the field would be abandoned.​t = 3.If the full drilling program is carried out,there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a $25,000 cash inflow at t = 3,and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then receiving only a $10,000 inflow.​​Using the information provided above,and assuming that the project is considered to be quite risky,with a 20% cost of capital,calculate the project's coefficient of variation.(Hint: You must calculate joint probabilities.)

Real options are options to buy real assets,such as stocks,rather than interest-bearing assets,such as bonds.

Commodore Corporation is deciding whether to invest in a project today or to postpone the decision until next year.The project has a positive expected NPV,but its cash flows could be less than expected,in which case the NPV could be negative.No competitors are likely to invest in a similar project if Commodore decides to wait.Which of the following issues should Commodore consider most seriously when making this investment decision?

Which one of the following is an example of a flexibility option?

Nebraska Pharmaceuticals Company (NPC) is considering a project that has an up-front cost at t = 0 of $1,500.(All dollars in this problem are in thousands.) The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether a competitor's product is approved by Health Canada.If Health Canada rejects the competitive product,NPC's product will have high sales and cash flows,but if the competitive product is approved,that will negatively impact NPC.There is a 75% chance that the competitive product will be rejected,in which case NPC's expected cash flows will be $500 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7).There is a 25% chance that the competitor's product will be approved,in which case the expected cash flows will be only $25 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7).NPC will know for sure 1 year from today whether the competitor's product has been approved.NPC is considering whether to make the investment today or to wait a year to find out Health Canada's decision.If it waits a year,the project's up-front cost at t = 1 will remain at $1,500,the subsequent cash flows will remain at $500 per year if the competitor's product is rejected and $25 per year if the alternative product is approved.However,if NPC decides to wait,the subsequent cash flows will be received only for six years (t = 2 … 7).Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 10%,if NPC chooses to wait a year before proceeding,how much will this increase or decrease the project's expected NPV in today's dollars ,relative to the NPV if it proceeds today?

OklahomaOklahoma Instruments (OI) is considering a project called F-200 that has an up-front cost of $250,000. The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether another of its products, F-100, becomes an industry standard. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be $110,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. There is a 50% chance that the F-100 will not become the industry standard, in which case the F-200's expected cash flows will be $25,000 at the end of each of the next 5 years. Assume that the cost of capital is 12%. -Refer to Scenario: Oklahoma.Based on the above information,what is the F-200's expected net present value?