Exam 13: Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation

If Untel Inc. decides to manufacture a new generation of computer chips with a brief 2 year product life cycle, it expects to sell 1 million units each year. Variable cost per unit will be $75, fixed costs $5 million, and depreciation $3 million. The initial investment will be $22.91 million. Untel uses a discount rate of 10%; its marginal tax rate is 40%. To reach break-even NPV, UNTEL must sell the chips for at least ________ each.

Jake's Tree farm is evaluating a proposal to plant 5,000 ornamental trees at an initial cost of $10,000. The trees will be sold in 5 years. What is the minimum after tax cash flow from selling the trees that will allow the tree planting project to reach break even NPV? Use a discount rate of 12%.

Variable cost for Light.com's fluorescent tubes is $12.50, the tubes are sold over the internet to businesses and organizations for $20.00 each. Fixed costs are $7,500,000. $500,000 in depreciation expense is included in fixed costs. What is the cash break-even quantity for the fluorescent tubes?

What is the expected free cash flow for the best case scenario?

Real options can have the effect of

Employees who propose capital projects often have a vested interest in getting them accepted.

At the break-even NPV point

There is a 30% probability that an office building will be sold after 5 years for $30 million, a 50% probability that it will be sold for $20 million and a 20% probability that it will be sold for $10 million. What is the expected value of the office building in 5 years?

Forecasts for project ST are shown above. Using a discount rate of 10%, the project has a positive NPV of $6,074.69. Estimate within $100 the level of sales revenue that will result in an NPV of $0.00. No other variables will change.

What is the NPV of the project if first year savings are only $75,000 and the project is sold?

The Oviedo Thespians are planning to present performances of their Florida Revue on 2 consecutive nights in January. It will cost them $5,000 per night for theater rental, event insurance and professional musicians. The theater will also take 10% of gross ticket sales. How many tickets must they sell at $10.00 per ticket to raise $1,000 for their organization?

Which of the following events might negatively affect a project's net present value?

What is the project's NPV if success is modest and it is not expanded?

The simulation approach provides us with

Which of the following abilities are crucial for risk analysis?

Which of the following costs is NOT covered in an accounting break-even analysis?

Enchanted Hearth expects to sell 1,200 wood pellet stoves in 2011 at an average price of $2,400 each. It believes that unit sales will grow between -5% and +5% per year and prices will rise or fall by as much as 5% per year. Forecast sales revenue for 2013 if the number of units sold increases by 5% per year and prices remain flat.

Which of the following results in a probability distribution for possible project outcomes rather than a dollar estimate?

Miniature Molding is planning to introduce a valve for use in medical implants. Variable costs per unit are $250. The maximum price MM could charge is $325. Fixed costs associated with this product are $20,000,000. Depreciation expense of $2,500,000 are included in fixed costs. The worst case forecast calls for sales of 240,000 valves, the best case for $290,400. Will MM reach cash break-even in the worst case scenario?

In reality, anticipated cash flows are only estimates and are thus uncertain.