Exam 12: Improving Decision Making

Intuition often leads us to believe that extroverted people who can speak coherently about their goals and their jobs are more likely to perform well.Which bias is characteristic of this belief?

Some judgmental biases have been found to be resistant to learning and feedback.

The most successful debiasing strategies tend to be:

Transferring an insight from one problem to a related problem requires ________ _________.

Which of the following biases did the Oakland Athletics baseball team overcome by implementing linear models in the team's management decisions?

Discuss some of the reasons why managers continue to use unstructured employment interviews despite the abundant evidence that they are not useful for predicting future job performance.

Which of the following has the lowest predictive power of a graduate student's future performance?

Participants who took part in two negotiation simulations were able to debias themselves more when asked about how the two simulations were related than when asked about the lesson of each simulation.

When "considering the opposite",after having estimated how likely one's conclusion is,assuming one's hypothesis is false,and thinking of alternative hypotheses,what is the next necessary step?

What advantages and disadvantages does human judgment have compared to linear models when it comes to making quantitative predictions?

Describe each of the three debiasing stages (unfreezing,change,and refreezing)and explain the mechanisms that make each of them hard to implement.

Research has found that complex linear models produce _____________ improvements to simple linear models.

One of the most general debiasing strategies,which forces people to explicitly consider alternatives to what they believe is the correct answer,is known as "consider the _________."

The statistical principle that dictates that extreme performances are subsequently likely to move closer to the group's average performance is known as ________________.

Intensive,personalized feedback is moderately effective in improving long-term judgment.

A formula that weights and adds up the relevant predictor variables in order to make a quantitative prediction is known as a __________ __________.

An affective impression of an interviewee is NOT:

Name one bias that can be reduced by learning to "consider the opposite".