Exam 15: Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty

The following payoff matrix shows the various profit outcomes for 3 projects,A,B,and C,under 2 possible states of nature: the product price is $10 or the product price is $20. Using the maximax rule,the decision maker would choose

A firm making production plans believes there is a 30% probability the price will be $10,a 50% probability the price will be $15,and a 20% probability the price will be $20.The manager must decide whether to produce 6,000 units of output A),8,000 units B)or 10,000 units C).The following table shows 9 possible outcomes depending on the output chosen and the actual price. What is the expected profit if 6,000 units are produced?

a manager can list all outcomes and assign probabilities to each

The following payoff matrix shows the various profit outcomes for 3 projects,A,B,and C,under 2 possible states of nature: the product price is $10 or the product price is $20. Using the maximin rule,the decision maker would choose

In the maximax strategy a manager choosing between two options will choose the option that

A firm making production plans believes there is a 30% probability the price will be $10,a 50% probability the price will be $15,and a 20% probability the price will be $20.The manager must decide whether to produce 6,000 units of output A),8,000 units B)or 10,000 units C).The following table shows 9 possible outcomes depending on the output chosen and the actual price. What is the variance if 6,000 units are produced?

A firm is making production plans for next quarter,but the manager does not know what the price of the product will be next month.She believes there is a 30 percent chance price will be $500 and a 70 percent chance price will be $750.The four possible profit outcomes are: Which option has the higher expected profit?

A firm is considering the decision of investing in new plants.It can choose no new plants,one new plant,or two new plants.The following table gives the profits for each choice under three states of the economy.The manager assigns the following probabilities to each state of the economy: the economy expands,20%,the economy contracts,40%,or the economy is unchanged 40%. Using the expected value rule which is correct? Building

A firm is considering the decision of investing in new plants.The following is the profit payoff matrix under three conditions: it does not expand,it builds two new plants,or it builds one new plant.Three possible states of nature can exist--no change in the economy,the economy contracts and the economy grows.The firm has no idea of the probability of each state. What decision would be made using the equal probability rule?

Refer to the following probability distribution for profit to answer the question below: What is the variance of this distribution?

variance of a probability distribution is used to measure risk because a higher variance is associated with

The manager's utility function for profit is U $\pi$ )= 50 $\pi$ ,where $\pi$ is the dollar amount of profit.The manager is considering a risky decision with the four possible profit outcomes shown below.The manager makes the following subjective assessments about the probability of each profit outcome: The marginal utility of an extra dollar of profit is __________.

A firm making production plans believes there is a 30% probability the price will be $10,a 50% probability the price will be $15,and a 20% probability the price will be $20.The manager must decide whether to produce 6,000 units of output A),8,000 units B)or 10,000 units C).The following table shows 9 possible outcomes depending on the output chosen and the actual price. For the above payoff matrix,suppose the manager has no idea about the probability of any of the three prices occurring.If the maximin rule is used how much will the firm produce?

A firm is making production plans for next quarter,but the manager does not know what the price of the product will be next month.She believes there is a 30 percent chance price will be $500 and a 70 percent chance price will be $750.The four possible profit outcomes are: Which option has the highest absolute)risk?

Choosing the decision with the maximum possible payoff

In the maximin strategy,a manager choosing between two options will choose the option that:

The manager's utility function for profit is U $\pi$ )= 50 $\pi$ ,where $\pi$ is the dollar amount of profit.The manager is considering a risky decision with the four possible profit outcomes shown below.The manager makes the following subjective assessments about the probability of each profit outcome: What is the expected profit?

The manager's utility function for profit is U $\pi$ )= 10 ln $\pi$ ),where $\pi$ is the dollar amount of profit.The manager is considering a risky decision with the four possible profit outcomes shown below.The manager makes the following subjective assessments about the probability of each profit outcome: Given this utility function for profit,the utility of profit is

A firm is considering the decision of investing in new plants.The following is the profit payoff matrix under three conditions: it does not expand,it builds two new plants,or it builds one new plant.Three possible states of nature can exist--no change in the economy,the economy contracts and the economy grows.The firm has no idea of the probability of each state. What decision would be made using the maximin rule?

Using the minimax regret rule the manager makes the decision