Deck 16: Language and Thought Part 2
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Deck 16: Language and Thought Part 2
1
Assume that odds of a new computer requiring any type of service in the first two years are less than 1 in 10,000, and the average cost of any computer service calls is only $120. However, Karen pays $300 for a 2-year service contract on her new computer. She explains that her peace of mind is well worth the cost of the contract. In this case, Karen's decision to purchase the service agreement appears to be based primarily on
A) expected value.
B) subjective utility.
C) subjective probability.
D) noncompensatory factors.
A) expected value.
B) subjective utility.
C) subjective probability.
D) noncompensatory factors.
subjective utility.
2
When people decide to place bets on horse races, games of chance, and athletic events, they are
A) playing the odds.
B) making foolish decisions.
C) making risky decisions.
D) making preference decisions.
A) playing the odds.
B) making foolish decisions.
C) making risky decisions.
D) making preference decisions.
making risky decisions.
3
In the Featured Study on intuitive decisions versus careful deliberation, the researchers found that when people are faced with complex choices, they tend to make better decisions
A) if they make intuitive decisions.
B) if they use careful deliberation.
C) when they focus only on the attributes that have high subjective utility.
D) when they delay the decision as long as possible.
A) if they make intuitive decisions.
B) if they use careful deliberation.
C) when they focus only on the attributes that have high subjective utility.
D) when they delay the decision as long as possible.
if they make intuitive decisions.
4
In order to decide which car to buy, Jim makes a list of desired qualities and rates each of the cars he is considering on a scale of one to ten. After totaling the points each car receives on all the desired qualities, he is going to purchase the car with the most points. Jim is using the ____ strategy of decision-making.
A) elimination by aspects
B) selection by aspects
C) subtractive
D) additive
A) elimination by aspects
B) selection by aspects
C) subtractive
D) additive
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5
Which strategy for decision-making might involve the weighting of individual attributes differently, based on the importance of the attributes?
A) selection by aspects strategy
B) elimination by aspects strategy
C) multiplication strategy
D) additive strategy
A) selection by aspects strategy
B) elimination by aspects strategy
C) multiplication strategy
D) additive strategy
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6
In the Featured Study on intuitive decisions versus careful deliberation, one of the independent variables was
A) post-choice satisfaction.
B) the decision-making heuristic chosen by the participants.
C) the age of the participants.
D) the complexity of the decision.
A) post-choice satisfaction.
B) the decision-making heuristic chosen by the participants.
C) the age of the participants.
D) the complexity of the decision.
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7
In the Featured Study on intuitive decisions versus careful deliberation, the researchers found that when decision complexity was low, conscious deliberation was associated with
A) less satisfaction.
B) greater satisfaction.
C) greater risk taking.
D) more post-decision regret.
A) less satisfaction.
B) greater satisfaction.
C) greater risk taking.
D) more post-decision regret.
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8
You flip a fair coin ten times. Each time it comes up heads you get 10 cents. Each time it comes up tails you lose 5 cents. What is your expected value for each flip of the coin?
A) +10 cents
B) +5 cents
C) -5 cents
D) -10 cents
A) +10 cents
B) +5 cents
C) -5 cents
D) -10 cents
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9
In the Featured Study on intuitive decisions versus careful deliberation, the researchers found that when decision complexity was high, conscious deliberation was associated with
A) lower risk taking.
B) less post-decision regret.
C) less satisfaction.
D) greater satisfaction.
A) lower risk taking.
B) less post-decision regret.
C) less satisfaction.
D) greater satisfaction.
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10
Based on the results from the Featured Study on intuitive decisions versus careful deliberation, if an individual is faced with a complex decision you should encourage the individual to
A) use conscious, careful deliberation.
B) focus on the way the decision is framed.
C) make an unconscious, intuitive decision.
D) delay the decision for as long as possible.
A) use conscious, careful deliberation.
B) focus on the way the decision is framed.
C) make an unconscious, intuitive decision.
D) delay the decision for as long as possible.
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11
Wilson is watching two different roulette-type games at a local charity bazaar. Each game costs $1.00 to play. In one game there are ten different numbers, and if the number he selects comes up, he will win $12.00. In the other game there are 100 different numbers, but if the number he selects comes up, he will win $50.00. Based on expected value theory, Wilson should
A) play the second game because it has a higher expected value.
B) play either one of the games because they both have the same expected value.
C) not play either game because they both have such low odds of winning.
D) play the first game because it has a higher expected value.
A) play the second game because it has a higher expected value.
B) play either one of the games because they both have the same expected value.
C) not play either game because they both have such low odds of winning.
D) play the first game because it has a higher expected value.
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12
Research suggests that when making a decision involving relatively few options, people tend to use
A) elimination by aspects strategies.
B) selection by aspect strategies.
C) additive strategies.
D) subtractive strategies.
A) elimination by aspects strategies.
B) selection by aspect strategies.
C) additive strategies.
D) subtractive strategies.
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13
Jim decides not to buy any car with a mechanical reliability rating of less than six, a crash rating of less than seven, a leg-room rating of less than five, and a fuel efficiency rating of less than six. Jim is using the ____ strategy of decision-making.
A) elimination by aspects
B) selection by aspects
C) subtractive
D) additive
A) elimination by aspects
B) selection by aspects
C) subtractive
D) additive
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14
Based on the results from the Featured Study on intuitive decisions versus careful deliberation, if an individual is faced with a simple decision you should encourage the individual to
A) use conscious, careful deliberation.
B) focus on the way the decision is framed.
C) make an unconscious, intuitive decision.
D) delay the decision for as long as possible.
A) use conscious, careful deliberation.
B) focus on the way the decision is framed.
C) make an unconscious, intuitive decision.
D) delay the decision for as long as possible.
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15
When making a decision using the ____ strategy, it is best to first evaluate the most important attributes.
A) elimination by aspects
B) selection by aspects
C) additive
D) subtractive
A) elimination by aspects
B) selection by aspects
C) additive
D) subtractive
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16
Jacob is thinking of buying a $1 lottery ticket. In Lottery A, his odds of winning are 1 out of a 1000, and he may win $500. In Lottery B, his odds of winning are 1 out of 5000, but he may win $5000. Based on expected value theory, Jacob should
A) buy either ticket because both lotteries have the same expected value.
B) buy a ticket from Lottery B because it has a higher expected value.
C) buy a ticket from Lottery A because it has a higher expected value.
D) not buy either ticket because both lotteries have very low odds of winning.
A) buy either ticket because both lotteries have the same expected value.
B) buy a ticket from Lottery B because it has a higher expected value.
C) buy a ticket from Lottery A because it has a higher expected value.
D) not buy either ticket because both lotteries have very low odds of winning.
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17
Subjective utility refers to
A) the expected value of an outcome.
B) what an outcome is personally worth to an individual.
C) a personal estimate of what the probability of an outcome is.
D) an individual's willingness to take risks.
A) the expected value of an outcome.
B) what an outcome is personally worth to an individual.
C) a personal estimate of what the probability of an outcome is.
D) an individual's willingness to take risks.
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18
Simon's theory of bounded rationality asserts that people frequently make
A) rational decisions that are less than optimal.
B) irrational decisions that are less than optimal.
C) rational decisions that are optimal.
D) irrational decisions that are optimal.
A) rational decisions that are less than optimal.
B) irrational decisions that are less than optimal.
C) rational decisions that are optimal.
D) irrational decisions that are optimal.
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19
Basing the estimated probability of an event on the ease with which instances come to mind is called the
A) law of small numbers.
B) representativeness heuristic.
C) conjunction fallacy.
D) availability heuristic.
A) law of small numbers.
B) representativeness heuristic.
C) conjunction fallacy.
D) availability heuristic.
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20
If you enjoy a day at the racetrack and don't really care if you end up with a little more or little less money at the end of the day, your behavior is most influenced by the ____ you put on your day's entertainment.
A) expected value
B) unexpected value
C) subjective utility
D) objective utility
A) expected value
B) unexpected value
C) subjective utility
D) objective utility
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21
The representativeness heuristic causes people to think that families with four children are more likely to have
A) four children of the same sex.
B) two boys and two girls.
C) three boys and one girl.
D) three girls and one boy.
A) four children of the same sex.
B) two boys and two girls.
C) three boys and one girl.
D) three girls and one boy.
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22
Basing the estimated probability of an event on how similar it is to the prototype of that event is termed the
A) conjunction heuristic.
B) availability heuristic.
C) representativeness heuristic.
D) gambler's heuristic.
A) conjunction heuristic.
B) availability heuristic.
C) representativeness heuristic.
D) gambler's heuristic.
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23
The representativeness heuristic refers to our tendency to
A) ignore subjective probabilities when making decisions.
B) estimate the probability of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind.
C) estimate the probability of an event based on how similar it is to the typical prototype of that event.
D) ignore common stereotypes when estimating probabilities.
A) ignore subjective probabilities when making decisions.
B) estimate the probability of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind.
C) estimate the probability of an event based on how similar it is to the typical prototype of that event.
D) ignore common stereotypes when estimating probabilities.
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24
When people overestimate the frequency of violent crimes because these events generate a great deal of media coverage, they are using
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) a holistic decision model.
D) the elimination by aspects strategy.
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) a holistic decision model.
D) the elimination by aspects strategy.
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25
Byron has been watching his new neighbor for a week. She drives a sporty car, carries a cell phone, and wears nothing but blue business suits. Byron decides his new neighbor must be a lawyer. In this case, Byron seems to have formed an opinion about his new neighbor's occupation based on
A) the hindsight bias.
B) the availability heuristic.
C) the representativeness heuristic.
D) the base-rate fallacy.
A) the hindsight bias.
B) the availability heuristic.
C) the representativeness heuristic.
D) the base-rate fallacy.
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26
Claude and Marie are excited because they have just bought a restaurant from the previous owners. The two partners know that the last seven restaurants that have been operated at that location have gone bankrupt within a year of their openings, but Claude and Marie are certain their restaurant will be successful because they plan on working hard to be a success. In this case, the two new business partners are
A) showing belief perseverance.
B) showing evidence of the gambler's fallacy.
C) showing the confirmation bias.
D) apparently ignoring base rates.
A) showing belief perseverance.
B) showing evidence of the gambler's fallacy.
C) showing the confirmation bias.
D) apparently ignoring base rates.
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27
Based on past experience, Sue decides not to take her two five-year-old grandsons to the movies at the same time. Sue is using which decision-making strategy?
A) availability heuristic
B) representativeness heuristic
C) conjunction heuristic
D) gambler's heuristic
A) availability heuristic
B) representativeness heuristic
C) conjunction heuristic
D) gambler's heuristic
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28
Zackary's friend asks how well Zackary gets along with his younger brother. Zackary thinks about how irritating his younger brother was yesterday, and the big fight they had as a result, and tells his friend that he doesn't get along with his brother at all. In this instance, Zackary's response is consistent with
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) the conjunction fallacy.
D) the hindsight bias.
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) the conjunction fallacy.
D) the hindsight bias.
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29
The tendency to believe that the odds of two uncertain events happening together are greater than the odds of either event happening alone
A) mental set.
B) belief perseverance.
C) the conjunction fallacy.
D) the framing effect.
A) mental set.
B) belief perseverance.
C) the conjunction fallacy.
D) the framing effect.
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30
Autumn has been figure skating since she was five years old. She has never placed higher than third in any of the competitions she has been in, but she is still convinced that she will be able to become a professional figure skater in a few years. Her coach and her parents have tried to tell her that not many people make it as professional skaters, but Autumn is convinced that she can beat the odds. In this case, Autumn is
A) displaying evidence of mental set.
B) showing belief perseverance.
C) apparently ignoring base rates.
D) showing the confirmation bias.
A) displaying evidence of mental set.
B) showing belief perseverance.
C) apparently ignoring base rates.
D) showing the confirmation bias.
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31
After seeing your new neighbor walking very stiffly and primly by your house wearing horn-rimmed glasses on a chain, a cardigan sweater, and her hair in a bun, you decide she must be a librarian. Your judgment is based on
A) subjective probability.
B) subjective utility.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) the representativeness heuristic.
A) subjective probability.
B) subjective utility.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) the representativeness heuristic.
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32
The availability heuristic implies that people will ____ the frequency of events that are easy to remember and ____ the frequency of events that are hard to remember.
A) overestimate; underestimate
B) underestimate; overestimate
C) overestimate; overestimate
D) underestimate; underestimate
A) overestimate; underestimate
B) underestimate; overestimate
C) overestimate; overestimate
D) underestimate; underestimate
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33
You can't think of a single instance when Cathy helped you out, and so you decide that Cathy must be an ungenerous person. Your judgment is based on
A) subjective utility.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) expected value.
A) subjective utility.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) expected value.
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34
Basing the estimate of an event on how similar it is to the prototype of that event is called
A) the law of small numbers.
B) the conjunction fallacy.
C) the representativeness heuristic.
D) the availability heuristic.
A) the law of small numbers.
B) the conjunction fallacy.
C) the representativeness heuristic.
D) the availability heuristic.
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35
The conjunction fallacy is a tendency to
A) ignore information about base rates when estimating the probabilities of certain combinations of outcomes.
B) overestimate the odds of a chance event if that event hasn't occurred recently.
C) draw general conclusions based on a few isolated cases.
D) believe that the odds of two uncertain events happening together are greater than the odds of either event happening alone.
A) ignore information about base rates when estimating the probabilities of certain combinations of outcomes.
B) overestimate the odds of a chance event if that event hasn't occurred recently.
C) draw general conclusions based on a few isolated cases.
D) believe that the odds of two uncertain events happening together are greater than the odds of either event happening alone.
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36
What occurs when people's belief about whether an outcome will occur changes depending on how alternative outcomes are distributed, even though the summed probability of the alternative outcomes is held constant?
A) mental set
B) belief perseverance
C) the conjunction fallacy
D) alternative outcomes effect
A) mental set
B) belief perseverance
C) the conjunction fallacy
D) alternative outcomes effect
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37
Juliana used to enjoy eating chicken, but since she has seen all the headlines about people becoming ill from eating chicken, she has decided she will never eat chicken again. In this case, Juliana's decision to stop eating chicken may have been influenced by
A) the representativeness heuristic.
B) the conjunction fallacy.
C) the overconfidence effect.
D) the availability heuristic.
A) the representativeness heuristic.
B) the conjunction fallacy.
C) the overconfidence effect.
D) the availability heuristic.
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38
Elisa is entering survey data from adult males in a research study. One respondent has listed his height as 6 feet 5 inches, but the occupation is hard to decipher. Elisa thinks it might be basketball player or bank president. She decides to enter basketball player as the occupation. In this case, Elisa
A) demonstrated the conjunction fallacy in making her decision.
B) probably relied on the representativeness heuristic to make her decision.
C) demonstrated overextension in making her decision.
D) probably relied on the availability heuristic to make her decision.
A) demonstrated the conjunction fallacy in making her decision.
B) probably relied on the representativeness heuristic to make her decision.
C) demonstrated overextension in making her decision.
D) probably relied on the availability heuristic to make her decision.
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39
The availability heuristic involves basing the estimated probability of an event on
A) how long it has been since the event last occurred.
B) how similar it is to the prototype of that event.
C) whether the event occurs in combination with another event.
D) the ease with which relevant instances of the event come to mind.
A) how long it has been since the event last occurred.
B) how similar it is to the prototype of that event.
C) whether the event occurs in combination with another event.
D) the ease with which relevant instances of the event come to mind.
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40
Walter mistakenly estimates that the probability of two separate events occurring at the same time is higher than the probability of either event occurring on its own. Walter's mistake is an example of
A) the framing effect.
B) mental set.
C) belief perseverance.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
A) the framing effect.
B) mental set.
C) belief perseverance.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
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41
Hiram is not really a sports fan, but he signs up for a fantasy baseball tournament that is being sponsored by the company he works for. In selecting his team, he picks the ten players that he recognizes from 200 that are listed. He is pleasantly surprised when his fantasy team finishes near the top. In this instance, Hiram made his selections using
A) belief perseverance.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) mental set.
D) the recognition heuristic.
A) belief perseverance.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) mental set.
D) the recognition heuristic.
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42
The fact that choices which are objectively identical can seem very different when reframed in different terms helps to illustrate which of your text's unifying themes?
A) Heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
B) Psychology is theoretically diverse.
C) Our behavior is shaped by our cultural heritage.
D) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
A) Heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
B) Psychology is theoretically diverse.
C) Our behavior is shaped by our cultural heritage.
D) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
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43
Incorrectly estimating that the odds of two uncertain events happening together are greater than the odds of either event happening alone is known as the
A) conjunction fallacy.
B) alternative outcome effect.
C) gambler's fallacy.
D) base rate fallacy.
A) conjunction fallacy.
B) alternative outcome effect.
C) gambler's fallacy.
D) base rate fallacy.
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44
Which of the following heuristics has been shown by evolutionary psychologists to be both simple and surprisingly effective?
A) recognition heuristic
B) representativeness heuristic
C) trial and error heuristic
D) availability heuristic
A) recognition heuristic
B) representativeness heuristic
C) trial and error heuristic
D) availability heuristic
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45
Evolutionary psychologists suggest that when people have to make quick decisions they tend to
A) gather information, calculate probabilities, and make statistically optimal decisions.
B) use relatively simple heuristics.
C) use relatively complicated heuristics.
D) make irrational decisions.
A) gather information, calculate probabilities, and make statistically optimal decisions.
B) use relatively simple heuristics.
C) use relatively complicated heuristics.
D) make irrational decisions.
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46
The linguistic relativity hypothesis is most consistent with the unifying theme in psychology that
A) heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
B) behavior is shaped by cultural heritage.
C) people's experience of the world is highly subjective.
D) psychology is empirical.
A) heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
B) behavior is shaped by cultural heritage.
C) people's experience of the world is highly subjective.
D) psychology is empirical.
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47
Even though he knows only a small percentage of high school athletes go on to professional careers, Charlie believes that he will receive a scholarship to play football in college and then will have a career in the NFL. Charlie is
A) not applying base rates to himself.
B) applying base rates to himself.
C) not applying the conjunction fallacy.
D) applying the conjunction fallacy.
A) not applying base rates to himself.
B) applying base rates to himself.
C) not applying the conjunction fallacy.
D) applying the conjunction fallacy.
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48
Evolutionary theorists argue that if decision problems were stated in terms of raw frequencies, then
A) base rate neglect and the conjunction fallacy would both disappear.
B) base rate neglect and the conjunction fallacy would both become more pronounced.
C) base rate neglect would disappear, but the conjunction fallacy would become more pronounced.
D) base rate neglect would become more pronounced, but the conjunction fallacy would disappear.
A) base rate neglect and the conjunction fallacy would both disappear.
B) base rate neglect and the conjunction fallacy would both become more pronounced.
C) base rate neglect would disappear, but the conjunction fallacy would become more pronounced.
D) base rate neglect would become more pronounced, but the conjunction fallacy would disappear.
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49
Which of the following is NOT a criticism that evolutionary psychologists have in regard to traditional research on human decision-making?
A) Traditional research typically focuses on base rates and probabilities and not on raw frequencies.
B) Traditional research typically studies inferences from the subject's memory and not from the information provided by the experimenter.
C) Traditional research typically uses contrived artificial problems.
D) Traditional research has used an unrealistic standard of rationality.
A) Traditional research typically focuses on base rates and probabilities and not on raw frequencies.
B) Traditional research typically studies inferences from the subject's memory and not from the information provided by the experimenter.
C) Traditional research typically uses contrived artificial problems.
D) Traditional research has used an unrealistic standard of rationality.
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50
According to dual-process theories of decision-making, when complicated or important decisions need to be made people use
A) dumb and dumber strategies.
B) fast and frugal strategies.
C) intuitive strategies.
D) rule-governed strategies.
A) dumb and dumber strategies.
B) fast and frugal strategies.
C) intuitive strategies.
D) rule-governed strategies.
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51
Barriers to effective problem solving, such as functional fixedness and mental sets, BEST reflect the unifying theme in psychology that
A) behavior is shaped by cultural heritage.
B) psychology is empirical.
C) heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
D) people's experience of the world is highly subjective.
A) behavior is shaped by cultural heritage.
B) psychology is empirical.
C) heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
D) people's experience of the world is highly subjective.
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52
Evolutionary theorists argue all of the following EXCEPT that
A) traditional research on decision making has imposed invalid and unrealistic standards of rationality.
B) human brains are wired to think in terms of base rates and probabilities.
C) humans only seem irrational because cognitive psychologists have been asking the wrong questions.
D) human decision making and problem solving strategies have been tailored to handle real world adaptive problems.
A) traditional research on decision making has imposed invalid and unrealistic standards of rationality.
B) human brains are wired to think in terms of base rates and probabilities.
C) humans only seem irrational because cognitive psychologists have been asking the wrong questions.
D) human decision making and problem solving strategies have been tailored to handle real world adaptive problems.
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53
Interactionist theories of language development best reflect the unifying theme in psychology that
A) psychology is theoretically diverse.
B) behavior is shaped by cultural heritage.
C) heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
D) psychology evolves in a sociohistorical context.
A) psychology is theoretically diverse.
B) behavior is shaped by cultural heritage.
C) heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
D) psychology evolves in a sociohistorical context.
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54
The fact that variations in cognitive style sometimes reflect the ecological demands of one's environment helps to illustrate which of your text's unifying themes?
A) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
B) Psychology is theoretically diverse.
C) Our behavior is shaped by our cultural heritage.
D) Psychology evolves in a sociohistorical context.
A) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
B) Psychology is theoretically diverse.
C) Our behavior is shaped by our cultural heritage.
D) Psychology evolves in a sociohistorical context.
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55
Evolutionary psychology suggest that the human mind is wired to think in terms of
A) base rates and probabilities rather than raw frequencies.
B) raw frequencies rather than base rates and probabilities.
C) representative heuristics rather than availability heuristics.
D) availability heuristics rather than representative heuristics.
A) base rates and probabilities rather than raw frequencies.
B) raw frequencies rather than base rates and probabilities.
C) representative heuristics rather than availability heuristics.
D) availability heuristics rather than representative heuristics.
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56
Arguing from an evolutionary perspective, Gigerenzer suggests that humans' reasoning largely depends on
A) inferential heuristics.
B) complex heuristics.
C) dumb and dumber heuristics.
D) fast and frugal heuristics.
A) inferential heuristics.
B) complex heuristics.
C) dumb and dumber heuristics.
D) fast and frugal heuristics.
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57
When people must choose between two alternatives, and they recognize one alternative but not the other, they often infer that the alternative they recognize has the higher value. This decision-making heuristic is called the
A) representativeness heuristic.
B) recognition heuristic.
C) framing heuristic.
D) conjunction heuristic.
A) representativeness heuristic.
B) recognition heuristic.
C) framing heuristic.
D) conjunction heuristic.
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58
According to Gigerenzer (1997), the human mind is wired to think in terms of
A) base rates and probabilities, rather than raw frequencies.
B) both raw frequencies and base rates.
C) neither raw frequencies nor base rates.
D) raw frequencies, rather than base rates and probabilities.
A) base rates and probabilities, rather than raw frequencies.
B) both raw frequencies and base rates.
C) neither raw frequencies nor base rates.
D) raw frequencies, rather than base rates and probabilities.
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59
During the 1950s and 1960s, creative new ways of measuring mental processes paved the way for the cognitive revolution. The development of new research methods helps to illustrate which of your text's unifying themes?
A) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
B) Psychology is theoretically diverse.
C) Psychology is empirical.
D) Behavior is determined by multiple causes.
A) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
B) Psychology is theoretically diverse.
C) Psychology is empirical.
D) Behavior is determined by multiple causes.
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60
Interactionist theories of language development help to illustrate which of your text's unifying themes?
A) Heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
B) Psychology evolves in a sociohistorical context.
C) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
D) Psychology is empirical.
A) Heredity and environment jointly influence behavior.
B) Psychology evolves in a sociohistorical context.
C) Our experience of the world is highly subjective.
D) Psychology is empirical.
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61
Joe is betting Jim on whether a tossed coin will land on heads or tails. Joe has bet heads the last four times and has lost each time. If on the next toss he bets heads again and says, "It's got to be heads, heads is overdue" his reasoning illustrates the
A) base rate fallacy.
B) gambler's fallacy.
C) conjunction fallacy.
D) overestimation fallacy.
A) base rate fallacy.
B) gambler's fallacy.
C) conjunction fallacy.
D) overestimation fallacy.
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62
Research suggests that the more confident people are about their predictions
A) the more likely it is that they are overconfident.
B) the less likely it is that they are overconfident.
C) the more likely it is that they are correct.
D) the less likely it is that they are correct.
A) the more likely it is that they are overconfident.
B) the less likely it is that they are overconfident.
C) the more likely it is that they are correct.
D) the less likely it is that they are correct.
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63
Kahneman and Tversky (1984) concluded that people are much more likely to take risks when
A) they are not asked to provide rationales for their choices.
B) seeking to cut their losses.
C) the issue is framed in terms of probability of success.
D) the probability of success is equal to the probability of failure.
A) they are not asked to provide rationales for their choices.
B) seeking to cut their losses.
C) the issue is framed in terms of probability of success.
D) the probability of success is equal to the probability of failure.
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64
One of the implications of having a confirmation bias is that
A) it allows people to make accurate decisions more quickly.
B) it interferes with our ability to accurately code and store information.
C) once a conclusion is drawn about something, subsequent information is interpreted as consistent with the conclusion.
D) it tends to produce mental set and functional fixedness.
A) it allows people to make accurate decisions more quickly.
B) it interferes with our ability to accurately code and store information.
C) once a conclusion is drawn about something, subsequent information is interpreted as consistent with the conclusion.
D) it tends to produce mental set and functional fixedness.
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65
People tend to inaccurately estimate that more deaths occur as a result of tornadoes than from asthma because of a tendency to
A) overestimate the probable.
B) underestimate the probable.
C) overestimate the improbable.
D) underestimate the improbable.
A) overestimate the probable.
B) underestimate the probable.
C) overestimate the improbable.
D) underestimate the improbable.
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66
Maribel is on a jury, and she is already convinced that the defendant in the case is not guilty. She listens very attentively to everything the defense attorneys have to say, but she tends to pay less attention when the prosecution is presenting evidence. In this instance, Maribel is showing evidence of
A) a confirmation bias.
B) the conjunction fallacy.
C) the base-rate fallacy.
D) the overconfidence effect.
A) a confirmation bias.
B) the conjunction fallacy.
C) the base-rate fallacy.
D) the overconfidence effect.
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67
Mr. and Mrs. Jones have five daughters. Hoping for a son, they decide to have a sixth child, reasoning that a boy is long overdue. Is their reasoning correct, and why?
A) Yes - the greater the number of girls a couple has had, the greater the likelihood that the next will be a boy
B) Yes - after having so many daughters, a boy is almost a sure thing
C) No - it is more likely that Mr. and Mrs. Jones will continue to produce girls
D) No - the probability of a son is unaffected by the sex of the previous children
A) Yes - the greater the number of girls a couple has had, the greater the likelihood that the next will be a boy
B) Yes - after having so many daughters, a boy is almost a sure thing
C) No - it is more likely that Mr. and Mrs. Jones will continue to produce girls
D) No - the probability of a son is unaffected by the sex of the previous children
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68
The gambler's fallacy reflects the influence of the
A) availability heuristic.
B) representativeness heuristic.
C) law of small numbers.
D) conjunction heuristic.
A) availability heuristic.
B) representativeness heuristic.
C) law of small numbers.
D) conjunction heuristic.
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69
Christine has been following the state lottery for over a year, and she has a record of the number of times every number has been selected. She is ready to invest $1000 in lottery tickets with the same six-number combination on each ticket. She is going to choose the six numbers that have occurred the least frequently in the last year because she is sure they will be picked eventually. In this case, Christine is showing evidence of
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the base rate fallacy.
C) the gambler's fallacy.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the base rate fallacy.
C) the gambler's fallacy.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
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70
Overestimating the accuracy of your answer illustrates
A) the conjunction fallacy.
B) the negative effects of framing.
C) the overconfidence effect.
D) the gambler's fallacy.
A) the conjunction fallacy.
B) the negative effects of framing.
C) the overconfidence effect.
D) the gambler's fallacy.
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71
A sales representative from an investment company is trying to convince a young couple to invest in one of the company's mutual funds. He will probably be most successful if
A) he mentions the names of other people who have invested in the fund.
B) he stresses that the fund has had solid returns in 12 of the past 15 years.
C) he stresses that the fund has only lost money in 3 of the past 15 years.
D) he leaves a detailed prospectus containing a lot of statistical analyses.
A) he mentions the names of other people who have invested in the fund.
B) he stresses that the fund has had solid returns in 12 of the past 15 years.
C) he stresses that the fund has only lost money in 3 of the past 15 years.
D) he leaves a detailed prospectus containing a lot of statistical analyses.
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72
Many people mistakenly believe their chances of dying in an airplane crash are greater than their chances of dying in an automobile crash. This belief reflects the operation of
A) confirmation bias.
B) the belief in the law of small numbers.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
A) confirmation bias.
B) the belief in the law of small numbers.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
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73
Researchers presented two groups of physicians with information regarding a surgical procedure. Half the physicians were told that on average 15 out of 100 people die as a result of the surgery; the remaining physicians were told that on average 85 out of 100 people survive the surgery. Based on the framing effect, you should expect
A) the second group of physicians would be more likely to recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
B) the first group of physicians would be more likely to recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
C) both groups of physicians would recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
D) neither group of physicians would recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
A) the second group of physicians would be more likely to recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
B) the first group of physicians would be more likely to recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
C) both groups of physicians would recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
D) neither group of physicians would recommend the surgical procedure to their patients.
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74
When people are seeking gains, they are ____ to make risky decisions than when they are attempting to cut their losses.
A) less likely
B) more likely
C) equally likely
D) less likely if female but more likely if male
A) less likely
B) more likely
C) equally likely
D) less likely if female but more likely if male
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75
Which of the following statements is MOST accurate?
A) The overconfidence effect is seen only when making predictions about events that have personal significance.
B) In their predictions about personal matters, people tend to be more accurate than confident.
C) Even professionals and experts tend to be overconfident about their own predictions.
D) The overconfidence effect is seen only when making predictions about events that have no personal significance.
A) The overconfidence effect is seen only when making predictions about events that have personal significance.
B) In their predictions about personal matters, people tend to be more accurate than confident.
C) Even professionals and experts tend to be overconfident about their own predictions.
D) The overconfidence effect is seen only when making predictions about events that have no personal significance.
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76
Malcolm has been watching a roulette-type game at a local charity bazaar. The game has only ten numbers on the wheel, and every number except 8 has come up as a winner during the last 15 minutes. Malcolm decides to bet $10 on number 8, because it has to come up eventually. In this case, Malcolm is showing evidence of
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the gambler's fallacy.
C) the base rate fallacy.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
A) the availability heuristic.
B) the gambler's fallacy.
C) the base rate fallacy.
D) the conjunction fallacy.
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77
The tendency to overestimate the probability of improbable events reflects the influence of the
A) gambler's heuristic.
B) representativeness heuristic.
C) availability heuristic.
D) conjunction heuristic.
A) gambler's heuristic.
B) representativeness heuristic.
C) availability heuristic.
D) conjunction heuristic.
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78
Fred needs major heart surgery, and he has consulted with two doctors about the operation. Dr. Marx tells Fred he has a 90% chance of surviving the surgery; Dr. Scalli tells Fred there is a 10% chance that he won't survive the surgery. Based on Kahneman and Tversky's research,
A) Fred is most likely to let Dr. Scalli perform the operation.
B) Fred will probably avoid making a decision until it is too late.
C) Fred is most likely to let Dr. Marx perform the operation.
D) Fred won't care who does the surgery because both doctors have presented the same information.
A) Fred is most likely to let Dr. Scalli perform the operation.
B) Fred will probably avoid making a decision until it is too late.
C) Fred is most likely to let Dr. Marx perform the operation.
D) Fred won't care who does the surgery because both doctors have presented the same information.
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79
Framing refers to
A) the way in which the alternatives in a decision problem are presented.
B) structuring decision problems in a manner that will lead to poor decisions.
C) presenting only part of the information required to make a decision.
D) presenting information that has no direct bearing on the decision problem at hand.
A) the way in which the alternatives in a decision problem are presented.
B) structuring decision problems in a manner that will lead to poor decisions.
C) presenting only part of the information required to make a decision.
D) presenting information that has no direct bearing on the decision problem at hand.
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80
The confirmation bias
A) is the belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn't occurred recently.
B) is the tendency to only seek information that is likely to support one's decisions and beliefs.
C) refers to when people's belief about whether an outcome will occur changes. depending on how alternative outcomes are distributed, even though the summed probability of the alternative outcomes is held constant.
D) refers to how decision issues are posed, and how choices are structured.
A) is the belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn't occurred recently.
B) is the tendency to only seek information that is likely to support one's decisions and beliefs.
C) refers to when people's belief about whether an outcome will occur changes. depending on how alternative outcomes are distributed, even though the summed probability of the alternative outcomes is held constant.
D) refers to how decision issues are posed, and how choices are structured.
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