Deck 10: Risk and Uncertainty: How Safe Is Safe Enough

Question 1

Why is it difficult to apply the engineering definition of risk to chemicals with unknown chemical properties, and how should such risks be assessed?

Answer 1

No Answer.

Question 2

What is the role of informed consent in risk management?

Answer 2

No Answer.

Question 3

What is the best objection to the precautionary principle? Why?

Answer 3

No Answer.

Question 4

Is it irrational to be risk averse? Explain your answer.

Question 5

The objective risk of an activity depends on how likely some negative event is to actually occur. The subjective risk, also known as the perceived risk, depends on what the agent believes about

A) the negative event in question.
B) the negative event in question and is therefore impossible to measure in an objective manner.
C) the negative event in question and is therefore widely agreed to be irrelevant for policy decisions.
D) the negative event in question and therefore always differs from the objective risk.

Question 6

If the probability is 1 in 10 million that an airliner with 450 passengers will crash in any given year, then the annual risk of a crash is

A) 450 deaths.
B) 1 in 10 million (0.0000001).
C) 0.0000001 × 450 = 0.000045.
D) 1 - (0.0000001 × 450) = 1 - 0.000045.
E) None of the above

Question 7

When dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was introduced on a large scale in the agricultural sector in the 1950s, it was perceived as safe by experts as well as laypeople. The inventor, Paul Muller, was awarded the Nobel Prize in medicine for his work on DDT in 1948. However, in the 1960s, a group of scientists discovered that DDT is, as a matter of fact, extremely toxic. This shows that, in the 1960s, the

A) objective risk of DDT was higher than the subjective risk.
B) subjective risk of DDT was higher than the objective risk.
C) perceived risk of DDT was higher than the subjective risk.
D) perceived risk of DDT was lower than the subjective risk.

Question 8

The engineering definition of risk is risk neutral. This means that

A) very large risks can always be balanced against other equally large and probable benefits.
B) small risks can always be balanced against other equally small and probable benefits.
C) very large risks can always be balanced against sufficiently many small but improbable benefits.
D) All of the above

Question 9

According to the engineering definition of risk,

A) the risk of some unwanted event e is the product of the probability that e will occur and the value of the harm caused by e, measured in whatever unit deemed appropriate.
B) the risk of some unwanted event e is the product of the probability that e will occur and the value of the harm caused by e, measured in dollars.
C) the risk of any event e is the product of the probability that e will occur and the value of the harm caused by e, measured in whatever unit deemed appropriate.
D) the risk of any event e is the product of the probability that e will occur and the value of the harm caused by e, measured in dollars.

Question 10

According to the engineering definition of risk, the risk of some unwanted event e is the product of the probability that e will occur and the value of the harm caused by e measured

A) in dollars.
B) by the number or lives lost.
C) utility units.
D) None of the above

Question 11

According to the engineering definition of risk, it holds that a risk is

A) an unwanted event that may or may not occur.
B) the probability that an event will occur multiplied by some appropriate measure of the consequence of that event.
C) the probability that an event will occur multiplied by the monetary value (usually measured in US dollars) of that event.
D) a quantitative entity defined in the design code applicable to a project.

Question 12

Trichloroethylene is a clear, nonflammable liquid commonly used as a solvent for a variety of organic materials. It was first introduced in the 1920s and widely used for industrial purposes until the 1970s. At that point, suspicions arose that trichloroethylene could be toxic. After many years of scientific debate, the EPA concluded in 2011 that trichloroethylene is a carcinogen. This shows that, between the 1920s and 2011,

A) the perceived risk of trichloroethylene was higher than the subjective risk.
B) the perceived risk of trichloroethylene was lower than the subjective risk.
C) the objective risk of trichloroethylene was higher than the subjective risk.
D) the objective risk of trichloroethylene remained the same.

Question 13

The risk-benefit principle entails that

A) every large risk can always be outweighed by other, sufficiently large benefits.
B) some, but not all, large risks can be outweighed by other, sufficiently large benefits.
C) avoiding risks is more important than creating benefits.
D) None of the above

Question 14

Which of the following is a benefit of the precautionary principle over cost-benefit and risk-benefit?

A) One does not need to know the probability of the bad outcome to take action.
B) Precautionary measures fit deontology better.
C) Cost-benefit requires measurement in money.
D) All of the above

Question 15

Which of the following best fits with the precautionary principle?

A) Always take precautionary measures when objective risk cannot be assessed.
B) Precautionary measures are to be taken even when objective risk can be assessed.
C) Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not to be used to postpone cost-effective preventive measures.
D) None of the above.

Question 16

Which of the following expresses the precautionary principle?

A) Rio Declaration
B) Wingspread Statement
C) There is no unique formulation of the precautionary principle.
D) All of the above

Question 17

The perceived dangers of train travel in the 19th century count as

A) evidence for precautionary principle that it is better to be safe than sorry.
B) a consideration against precautionary measures taken in scientific ignorance.
C) evidence for risk-benefit assessment.
D) All of the above

Question 18

Which of the following was put forth as an explanation for the accelerator-related deaths in Camrys by Toyota?

A) Unusual floormat
B) Sticky gas pedal
C) Driver error
D) All of the above

Question 19

Who discovered the faulty code causing the acceleration in the Toyota Camry?

A) A team of NASA engineers hired by Department of Transportation
B) Toyota's own engineers
C) Expert witnesses in a wrongful death suit
D) None of the above

Question 20

Which of the following best fits an application of the Wingspread criteria to the Camry case?

A) Until the engineers could prove the software was responsible, no precautionary measures were necessary.
B) Precautionary measures become necessary once it is known that risk is possible from software malfunction.
C) Once it is reasonable to believe the software caused acceleration, precautionary measures were reasonable.
D) None of the above

Question 21

How does the principle of informed consent compare to the other ethical principles?

A) It is easier to apply because one need not calculate the magnitude of the risk.
B) It is an easier standard to meet because all that is necessary is that the person know and accept risk.
C) It is more restrictive because it requires more knowledge of risk.
D) None of the above

Question 22

The decision to shut down nuclear reactors in Germany because of the Fukushima disaster is an example of

A) how objective risk and subjective risk may diverge.
B) the difficulty of informing the public of risk.
C) precautionary action that did not satisfy the criteria of the precautionary principle.
D) All of the above

Question 23

The fact that rational choosers are often risk-averse instead of expected-utility maximizers counts against the

A) precautionary principle.
B) engineering definition of risk.
C) distinction between objective and subjective risk.
D) None of the above

Question 24

The risk-benefit principle and the precautionary principle draw the line between acceptable and unacceptable risks by considering the risk's potential consequences. Kantian duty ethicists would argue that what matters is whether those exposed to the risk

A) have been properly informed about the risk, or could rationally wish that no information is required.
B) have given their informed consent to being exposed to the risk, or could reasonably be expected to do so if properly compensated.
C) have consented to being exposed to the risk, no matter how much or little information was presented to them.
D) will raise valid complaints about the risk.