Deck 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

Question 1

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

After the seasonality component is removed in the given data set,what is the value of ?

A)104.20
B)103.44
C)110.64
D)cannot be determined

Answer 1

103.44

Question 2

A time series is a:

A)set of measurements on a variable collected at the same time or approximately the same period of time.
B)set of measurements,ordered over time,on a particular quantity of interest.
C)model that attempts to analyze the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
D)model that attempts to forecast the future value of a variable.

Answer 2

set of measurements,ordered over time,on a particular quantity of interest.

Question 3

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

Determine the value of .

A)108.15
B)113.50
C)102.77
D)cannot be determined

Answer 3

cannot be determined

Question 4

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

What is the centered 4-point moving average for ?

A)113.51
B)110.64
C)104.20
D)cannot be determined

Question 5

Which of the following components in the time series is more likely to exhibit the relative steady growth of the population of Egypt from 1959 to 2009?

A)the trend component
B)the cyclical component
C)the seasonal component
D)the irregular component

Question 6

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

The original value of x₅ as a percentage of the centered 4-point moving average is:

A)71.50
B)75.22
C)101.49
D)77.73

Question 7

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

Calculate the centered 4-point moving average for .

A)113.51
B)110.64
C)104.20
D)cannot be determined

Question 8

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

What is the original value of x² as a percentage of the centered 4-point moving average ?

A)0.36
B)91.52
C)0.39
D)cannot be determined

Question 9

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

What is the seasonal index for quarter 4?

A)141.99
B)64.99
C)129.57
D)131.75

Question 10

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

What is the seasonal index for quarter 2?

A)141.99
B)84.53
C)83.13
D)91.52

Question 11

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

Determine the centered 4-point moving average for .

A)108.16
B)105.29
C)103.45
D)cannot be determined

Question 12

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

What is the centered 4-point moving average for ?

A)103.11
B)105.89
C)105.28
D)cannot be determined

Question 13

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

Determine the seasonal index for quarter 1.

A)91.52
B)101.49
C)117.70
D)cannot be determined

Question 14

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

What is the seasonally adjusted value for x₆?

A)84.53
B)0.7737
C)0.3653
D)101.49

Question 15

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

After the seasonality component is removed in the given data set,what is the value of ?

A)104.20
B)103.44
C)110.64
D)cannot be determined

Question 16

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

What is the seasonal index for quarter 3?

A)66.02
B)64.92
C)141.99
D)359.08

Question 17

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

Determine the sum of the median values that are obtained to assess the effect of seasonality in each quarter.

A)154.88
B)359.08
C)393.36
D)400

Question 18

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

What is the value of ?

A)104.28
B)104.12
C)102.77
D)103.45

Question 19

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

Which of the following is the value of ?

A)107.12
B)103.45
C)114.92
D)112.09

Question 20

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used.

Calculate the value of .

A)114.93
B)103.45
C)112.08
D)cannot be determined

Question 21

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The following are the values of a time series for the first four time periods:
Using a four-period moving average,determine the forecasted value for time period 5.

A)27.3
B)27.0
C)27.7
D)28.0

Question 22

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

Determine the seasonally adjusted value for x₁.

A)117.70
B)0.4259
C)0.3399
D)91.58

Question 23

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The exponential smoothing method of forecasting is the most appropriate method for time series that exhibit:

A)irregularity.
B)seasonality.
C)a constant upward trend.
D)a constant downward trend.

Question 24

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The year ________ has the forecast value 104.95.

A)1885
B)1899
C)1895
D)1991

Question 25

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

What is the value of the sum of squared forecast errors?

A)123.98
B)101.85
C)985.10
D)862.82

Question 26

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

What is initial estimate of the trend value for week 2?

A)34
B)24
C)44
D)43

Question 27

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The component in a time series that reflects a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction exhibited by a time series over a long time period (more than one year)is called the:

A)trend component.
B)cyclical component.
C)seasonal component.
D)irregular component.

Question 28

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

Determine the forecast for the year 1901.

A)104.95
B)98.50
C)102.25
D)90.31

Question 29

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

Calculate the seasonally adjusted value for x₁₈.

A)91.52
B)0.9464
C)84.53
D)0.6967

Question 30

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The number of four-period centered moving averages of a time series with 20 time periods is:

A)28
B)24
C)20
D)16

Question 31

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The time-series model X_t = T_t × S_t × C_t × I_t is used for forecasting,where T_t,S_t,C_t,and I_t are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and X_t is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: _t = 125,
_t = 0.92,
_t = 1.04,and
_{= 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:}

A)127.86
B)122.14
C)107.64
D)102.99

Question 32

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The time series that reflects a wavelike pattern describing a long-term trend that is generally apparent over a number of years is called the:

A)trend component.
B)cyclical component.
C)seasonal component.
D)irregular component.

Question 33

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

Which of the following years has the forecast value 98.44?

A)1894
B)1899
C)1902
D)1904

Question 34

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years.
The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component.

Which of the following is the seasonally adjusted value for x₂₀?

A)0.6072
B)2.0449
C)131.75
D)141.99

Question 35

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

Determine the error for the forecast that corresponds to the year 1899.

A)0.50
B)-3.69
C)-5.50
D)10.16

Question 36

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

What is the forecast for the year 1896?

A)103.89
B)106.01
C)109.35
D)104.95

Question 37

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

The error for the forecast that corresponds to the year 1902 is:

A)3.38
B)-14.92
C)7.71
D)10.16

Question 38

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

A)first period.
B)last period.
C)first and last period.
D)first and last two periods.

Question 39

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

Calculate the forecast value for the year 1905,if the real home price index for that year is 98.056.

A)100.31
B)98.51
C)98.06
D)cannot be determined

Question 40

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904.
Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing.

We calculate the five-period moving average for a time series for all time periods except the:

A)first five periods.
B)last five periods.
C)first and last period.
D)first two and last two periods.

Question 41

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4.

What is the sales forecast for the 3^rd quarter of year 4?

A)approximately 133 units
B)approximately 269 units
C)approximately 140 units
D)approximately 369 units

Question 42

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

Which of the following components describe the up and down movements of a time series that vary both in length and in intensity?

A)the trend component
B)the seasonal component
C)the cyclical component
D)the irregular component

Question 43

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4.

Compute the sales forecast for the 1^st quarter of year 4.

A)approximately 113 units
B)approximately 269 units
C)approximately 164 units
D)approximately 369 units

Question 44

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4.

Calculate the value of the mean absolute percentage error.

A)67.31
B)31.76
C)3.68
D)17.28

Question 45

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

What is the approximate forecast for week 14?

A)843 units
B)348 units
C)483 units
D)438 units

Question 46

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

What is the trend estimate for week 10?

A)38.18
B)34.40
C)43.48
D)50.00

Question 47

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4.

What is the value of mean absolute deviation?

A)17.28
B)30.55
C)1534.28
D)3451.28

Question 48

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The simple exponential smoothing model is most appropriate for a time series that is:

A)seasonal and has no consistent upward or downward trend.
B)seasonal and has a consistent upward or downward trend.
C)nonseasonal and has a consistent upward or downward trend.
D)nonseasonal and has no consistent upward or downward trend.

Question 49

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The method of moving averages is used to:

A)smoothen a time series.
B)plot a time series.
C)exponentiate a time series.
D)represent a time series as an additive model.

Question 50

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4.

The sales forecast for the 2^nd quarter of year 4 is approximately:

A)113 units.
B)255 units.
C)140 units.
D)369 units.

Question 51

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The forecast for week 13 is approximately:

A)696 units.
B)767 units.
C)805 units.
D)966 units.

Question 52

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

Compute the approximate forecast for week 12.

A)696 units
B)767 units
C)672 units
D)453 units

Question 53

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

Which of the following weeks has an approximate trend estimate of 68?

A)week 5
B)week 7
C)week 1
D)week 11

Question 54

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The trend estimate for ________ is 49 approximately.

A)week 6
B)week 4
C)week 8
D)week 2

Question 55

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The Holt-Winters exponential smoothing procedure:

A)does not allow for trend or seasonality in a time series.
B)does not allow for trend,but allows the cyclic component in a time series.
C)allows for trend,and possibly also seasonality,in a time series.
D)allows seasonality,but does not allow trend in a time series.

Question 56

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The estimate of the level for week 2 is:

A)452 units.
B)347 units.
C)335 units.
D)310 units.

Question 57

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

Which of the following weeks has a level estimate of 672 units approximately?

A)week 5
B)week 7
C)week 9
D)week 13

Question 58

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

What is the approximate level estimate for week 8?

A)453 units
B)539 units
C)620 units
D)696 units

Question 59

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

The estimate of the level for ________ is 453 units,approximately.

A)week 6
B)week 4
C)week 5
D)week 8

Question 60

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis.
The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods.
He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. )

In which component of the time series will the effect of an unpredictable,rare event be contained?

A)the trend component
B)the seasonal component
C)the cyclical component
D)the irregular component

Question 61

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

The sales forecast for the 2^nd quarter of year 9 is approximately ________ in 000's.

A)154 units
B)164 units
C)174 units
D)184 units

Question 62

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

The autoregressive equation is:

A)Sales = 104 + 0.231 Saleslag 1 - 0.439 Saleslag 2 + 0.397 Saleslag 3
B)Sales = 0.397 + 0.231 Saleslag 1 - 0.439 Saleslag 2 + 104 Saleslag 3
C)Sales = 104 + 0.439 Saleslag 1 - 0.231 Saleslag 2 + 0.397 Saleslag 3
D)Sales = 0.397 + 0.439 Saleslag 1- 0.231 Saleslag 2 + 104 Saleslag 3

Question 63

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

Which of the following has an approximate forecast of 270 units?

A)year 1 quarter 4
B)year 6 quarter 3
C)year 5 quarter 4
D)year 4 quarter 3

Question 64

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

The sales forecast for the 4^th quarter of year 7 is approximately ________ in 000's.

A)120 units
B)218 units
C)189 units
D)196 units

Question 65

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

The value of mean square displacement is:

A)4,657.48
B)1,996.96
C)7,546.48
D)2,656.37

Question 66

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

Determine the error term that corresponds to the 1^st quarter in year 1.

A)-30.27
B)65.36
C)50.27
D)cannot be determined

Question 67

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

What is the value of the mean absolute percentage error?

A)46.57
B)19.96
C)75.46
D)26.56

Question 68

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

The sales forecast for the 4^th quarter of year 8 is approximately ________ in 000's.

A)169 units
B)179 units
C)189 units
D)209 units

Question 69

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

The number of forecast values determined is:

A)10.
B)3.
C)24.
D)21.

Question 70

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

Calculate the value of the sum of squared errors.

A)35,191.91
B)19,135.91
C)59,135.81
D)15,356.91

Question 71

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

Determine the value of mean absolute deviation.

A)46.57
B)19.96
C)75.46
D)26.56

Question 72

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

Which of the following has no forecast?

A)year 1 quarter 3
B)year 2 quarter 4
C)year 6 quarter 3
D)year 6 quarter 4

Question 73

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

Calculate the sales forecast (in 000's)for the 4^th quarter of year 9.

A)approximately 160 units
B)approximately 170 units
C)approximately 150 units
D)approximately 140 units

Question 74

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

The error term that corresponds to the 3^rd quarter in year 6 is:

A)-1.08
B)9)24
C)-3.56
D)-101.63

Question 75

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

What is the approximate sales forecast (in 000's)for the 3^rd quarter of year 8?

A)120 units
B)218 units
C)189 units
D)196 units

Question 76

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

________ has an approximate forecast of 250 units.

A)4^th quarter in year 1
B)1^st quarter in year 1
C)2^nd quarter in year 4
D)3^rd quarter in year 6

Question 77

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4.

The value of mean square displacement is:

A)17.28
B)30.55
C)1,534.28
D)3,451.28

Question 78

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

Compute the sales forecast (in 000's)for the 2^nd quarter of year 10.

A)approximately 120 units
B)approximately 131 units
C)approximately 146 units
D)approximately 196 units

Question 79

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods.

What is the error term that corresponds to the 1^st quarter in year 5?

A)-30.27
B)65.36
C)50.27
D)cannot be determined

Question 80

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods.
Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3

Determine the sales forecast (in 000's)for the 4^th quarter of year 10.

A)approximately 120 units
B)approximately 131 units
C)approximately 146 units
D)approximately 196 units