Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -The sales forecast for the 2^nd quarter of year 9 is approximately ________ in 000's.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -What is the centered 4-point moving average for ?

If a time series appears to contain a substantial irregular element,we would use a small value for the smoothing constant α since we do not want to give too much weight to the most recent observation along.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -The value of mean square displacement is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -Use a smoothing constant of 0.8 to show the table that shows all the forecast values for the given series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -Calculate the sales forecast (in 000's)for the 4^th quarter of year 9.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -Determine the sum of the median values that are obtained to assess the effect of seasonality in each quarter.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -Determine the seasonally adjusted value for x₁.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -After the seasonality component is removed in the given data set,what is the value of ?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -Calculate the seasonally adjusted value for x₁₈.

We calculate the three-period moving average for a time series for all time periods except the first period.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4. -The sales forecast for the 2^nd quarter of year 4 is approximately:

For a time series generated by the first-order autoregressive model,forecasts of future values depend only on the most recent value of the series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The simple exponential smoothing model is most appropriate for a time series that is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -We calculate the five-period moving average for a time series for all time periods except the:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: Consider the following quarterly time series data. -Show the table with the errors for each forecast and determine the sum of squared errors.

The choice of a larger smoothing constant α in simple exponential smoothing would place more weight on the most recent value.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The error for the forecast that corresponds to the year 1902 is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -What is the approximate forecast for week 14?

The seasonal component in a time series reflects a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction.