Deck 12: Judgment and Reasoning

Question 1

The term "covariation" refers in general to

A)the relationship between the frequency of objects in the world and their availability in memory.
B)the pattern of evidence leading participants to the gambler's fallacy.
C)a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables.
D)the tendency in a pattern of data for observations of one sort to be linked to observations of another sort.

Answer 1

D

Question 2

The availability heuristic is a strategy in which

A)category frequencies tend to be overestimated.
B)people base their estimates of frequency on how easily they can think of examples of the relevant category.
C)people judge frequency by referring to their sense of familiarity with the category.
D)category frequencies are estimated on the basis of schematic knowledge.

Answer 2

B

Question 3

"I can easily think of the names of several dishonest politicians,so I'm certain there are a lot of dishonest politicians!" This is an example of a judgment relying on

A)illusory covariation.
B)representativeness.
C)anchoring.
D)the availability heuristic.

Answer 3

D

Question 4

Which of the following is NOT an example of a frequency judgment?

A)"You've only worn that shirt once since I gave it to you!"
B)"I am certain that he is lying."
C)"There certainly are a lot of pizzerias in this neighborhood."
D)"The number of truly caring physicians is getting smaller and smaller."

Question 5

People who eat more tomatoes are less likely to get cancer in comparison to people who don't eat tomatoes.Which of the following accurately restates this pattern?

A)Eating tomatoes covaries positively with cancer risk.
B)Eating tomatoes seems to prevent cancer.
C)Eating tomatoes covaries negatively with cancer risk.
D)Eating more vegetables overall decreases cancer risk.

Question 6

In several studies,participants have been asked to estimate the frequency of occurrence for
Various causes of death.The evidence suggests that participants' frequency estimates are
Strongly influenced by

A)whether the cause of death was related to natural forces (e.g. ,lightning,tornado).
B)how often the cause of death is discussed in the news media.
C)whether the cause of death is associated with prolonged suffering.
D)how well the cause of death fits with participants' schematic knowledge.

Question 7

Reasoning from "man who" arguments is usually inappropriate because generalizing from a single case is justified only

A)for truly heterogeneous categories.
B)when the sample size is adequate.
C)when the base rates are unknown.
D)for truly homogeneous categories.

Question 8

Participants are told,"Hospital A has an average of 45 births per day;Hospital B has an average of only 15 births per day." The participants are then asked,"Which hospital is more likely to have a day in which at least 60% of the babies born are female?" In answering the question,participants

A)seem insensitive to the fact that departures from the average case are more likely with a smaller sample.
B)seem insensitive to the fact that departures from the average case are more likely with a larger sample.
C)correctly realize that departures from the average case are not dependent on hospital size.
D)answer correctly,guided by the law of small numbers.

Question 9

Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?

A)"I know the chances of winning the lottery are small,but someone has to win it,and I could be the one!"
B)"I've gotten a low number the last eight times I've rolled the dice,so a high number is coming up soon!"
C)"There's an equal chance for any team to win the league's championship."
D)"The best strategy at the horse races is to bet in the same way that the crowd is betting."

Question 10

The availability heuristic

A)is a time-consuming strategy,so it is employed by participants only when a judgment requires special care.
B)leads us to overestimate frequency if category members are particularly difficult to remember.
C)leads us to underestimate frequency because there are usually more category members beyond the ones we recall.
D)often,but not always,leads to correct estimates because availability in memory is often correlated with frequency in the world.

Question 11

Before reading about an individual who has been diagnosed with depression,participants are told that the case is not at all typical.This instruction will

A)prevent participants from using the representativeness heuristic.
B)encourage participants to use the representativeness heuristic.
C)not affect participants' spontaneous use of the representativeness heuristic.
D)trigger Type 1 reasoning.

Question 12

Heuristics are strategies that

A)sometimes risk error in order to gain efficiency.
B)are underused,despite their advantages.
C)protect us from overestimating the frequency of real-life events.
D)ensure step-by-step procedures for finding correct conclusions.

Question 13

Megha cannot sleep at night because she is terribly worried about being robbed,even though robberies are extremely rare in her neighborhood.Which of the following is LEAST likely to be contributing to her fear?

A)The "man who story" she heard about the friend of a friend getting robbed one night.
B)The availability heuristic after hearing about a robbery on the news.
C)Memory bias for emotional events.
D)Underestimating sample size for the number of robbers in the world.

Question 14

When we encounter a highly unusual event,we are particularly likely to notice and consider the event.As a consequence

A)we are likely to think about how distinctive the event really is,leading us to underestimate the likelihood of this type of event.
B)we are likely to think about the event as being in its own special category,so the event will have little impact on our estimates of frequency.
C)the event will be easy to recall,leading us to overestimate the likelihood of this type of event.
D)the event will be difficult to recall,leading us to underestimate the likelihood of this type of event.

Question 15

In one experiment,participants were asked to list either 6 or 12 instances in their lives when they were assertive.Which of the following statements is FALSE about the participants who were asked to list only 6 instances?

A)Overall,they rated themselves as less assertive.
B)They had an easier time fulfilling the task.
C)They were given an easier task than the 12-instance participants.
D)They relied on the availability heuristic when making their decision.

Question 16

Many of us overestimate our own popularity.This could be because we surround ourselves with people who like us,rather than with people who do not.Therefore,it is easier for us to think of the names of people who like us than it is to think of the names of our enemies.This overestimation of popularity seems to derive from using

A)anchoring.
B)base rates.
C)the atmosphere pattern.
D)the availability heuristic.

Question 17

An employer interviews a job candidate for 15 minutes.On the basis of this interview,the employer decides that the candidate will perform well in the job,so he hires her.This is a case of a

A)sound decision because the employer is making use of available information.
B)sound decision because the employer is employing base rates.
C)potential error because the employer is assuming that a small sample of information (the interview)is representative of a broader pattern (job performance).
D)potential error because the employer is relying on schema-based reasoning rather than deduction.

Question 18

Tonya is trying to decide which candidate to vote for in the upcoming election.The two candidates have similar positions,and Tonya is having a hard time choosing between them.She decides,therefore,simply to vote for the one who looks more like her idea of a "natural leader." It seems that Tonya is using ________ to make her decision.

A)a frequency estimate
B)attribute substitution
C)base rates
D)the availability heuristic

Question 19

In using the representativeness heuristic,participants

A)extrapolate from a sample of evidence if the category is homogeneous but not if the category is heterogeneous.
B)are sensitive to the sample size and draw conclusions more readily from a large sample.
C)seem to assume that all instances of the category resemble the prototype for that category.
D)rely on base rates.

Question 20

In one study,participants were shown a film about a family on welfare (financial assistance).Prior to viewing the film,half of the participants were told that the film showed a highly unusual case.The other participants were told that the film showed a quite typical case.After viewing the film,participants were asked their opinions about welfare.On the basis of other evidence,we would expect to find that

A)both groups of participants were influenced equally by the film.
B)neither group of participants was influenced by the film.
C)participants who were told that the case was unusual were less influenced by the film than those who viewed the typical case.
D)participants who were told that the case was unusual were not influenced by the film.

Question 21

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns;therefore,larger samples are generally more informative.In making judgments about evidence,participants

A)seem to understand and respect this law.
B)ignore this law even though they do follow other principles of statistics.
C)follow this law only if they have been trained in statistics.
D)ignore this law in some situations but respect it in other situations.

Question 22

Someone who is insensitive to base rates is likely to have all of the following problems EXCEPT

A)a hard time estimating covariation.
B)inaccuracy at determining cause-and-effect relationship.
C)overreliance on the representative heuristic.
D)underuse of diagnostic information.

Question 23

Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads people to pay attention to the quantity of evidence that is present?

A)The role of chance or accident is prominent in the problem under scrutiny.
B)The participant is scrutinizing a problem that is of great personal importance,so he or she is highly motivated to reason carefully and well.
C)The problem under scrutiny makes clear that the available evidence is a sample of data drawn from a larger set of potential observations.
D)The problem being considered involves a situation for which the participant has background beliefs emphasizing the role of luck or chance.

Question 24

Data format seems to play an important role in decision making because

A)the correct format is more likely to trigger the necessary memory.
B)certain formats,like frequencies,are more likely to encourage base-rate use.
C)certain formats,like frequencies,are more likely to encourage confirmation bias.
D)probabilities are easier to understand than proportions.

Question 25

The term "illusory covariation" refers to an error in which participants

A)perceive an event as occurring far more often than it actually does.
B)perceive two variables as being somehow linked to each other when in fact they are not.
C)draw a conclusion on the basis of a biased or small sample of evidence.
D)refuse to change their minds even though the available evidence clearly challenges their beliefs.

Question 26

A base rate is defined as information

A)that helps us to identify which specific candidates have a target property.
B)about the broad likelihood of a particular type of event.
C)indicating the internal variability of a set or category.
D)that can be used to diagnose an individual category member.

Question 27

Training in statistics

A)can increase the likelihood that people will rely on attribute substitution.
B)improves participants' abilities to make judgments so that judgment errors will be less likely.
C)improves participants' abilities to make judgments but only when they are trained on the mathematical foundations of statistical analysis.
D)provides little benefit away from the statistics course itself.

Question 28

Which of the following is correct regarding dual-process models?

A)Both Type 1 and Type 2 thinking provide quick and efficient ways of making a judgment.
B)When we know that a judgment is important,we put more emphasis on Type 2 thinking to ensure an accurate outcome.
C)Type 2 thinking is more likely to be used if people are given training or cued by the situation.
D)Type 2 thinking is more likely to be used in situations where people are distracted or tired.

Question 29

Illusory covariations can be documented in

A)novices,but only when the cases being judged are of low importance for the participants.
B)well-trained professionals,but only when the professionals are making judgments outside of their areas of expertise.
C)novices but not in experts.
D)individuals who have years of training in the domain being judged.

Question 30

Studies indicate that training in statistics

A)has little impact on how participants make judgments outside of the statistics class.
B)improves participants' understanding of statistical principles but does not teach them how to apply the principles to actual cases.
C)helps participants make more accurate judgments,but only if they were explicitly encouraged to apply their statistical knowledge.
D)improves participants' performance in a variety of judgment problems.

Question 31

When thinking about the likelihood of events,humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as ________ than as ________.

A)percentages;fractions
B)abstract ideas;concrete examples
C)frequencies;probabilities
D)probabilities;frequencies

Question 32

Studies indicate that participants

A)always neglect base-rate information.
B)overutilize base-rate information even if other compelling information is presented.
C)make sensible use of base-rate information if no other information is available.
D)tend to integrate base-rate information with diagnostic information.

Question 33

Descriptive information that indicates that you are likely to be a member of a category (or fit the stereotype)is referred to as

A)the base rate.
B)diagnostic information.
C)stereotype bias.
D)confirmation bias.

Question 34

Imagine an experiment in which participants were told of a previously unknown tribe living on a Pacific island.Only one member of this tribe had been observed so far,and he was found to be obese.When asked how likely it was that all members of the tribe were obese,participants were unwilling to extrapolate from this single observation.This shows that participants

A)were using the representative heuristic.
B)had prior beliefs about Pacific islanders.
C)are sometimes sensitive to the sample size and can take this into account when making a judgment.
D)are unwilling to make a judgment,as they are concerned about making errors.

Question 35

Lucia reported to her father that she saw a hummingbird in their backyard.Her father,however,knows that hummingbirds are extremely rare in that part of the country.In this situation

A)the diagnostic information confirms the base rate.
B)the diagnostic information points toward one conclusion,but the base rate points toward a different conclusion.
C)the base rate is known,but no diagnostic information is available.
D)there are two pieces of diagnostic information but no base-rate information.

Question 36

If Tabitha believes that detective television shows are more dramatic than hospital television shows,then confirmation bias would make her more likely to do all of the following EXCEPT

A)notice a detective television show that is dramatic.
B)overlook a hospital television show that is dramatic.
C)have memory schemata that include more examples of dramatic detective television shows than dramatic hospital television shows.
D)have memory schemata that include more examples of dramatic hospital television shows than dramatic detective television shows.

Question 37

Dual-process models state that people

A)have two ways of thinking: one is a fast and automatic process,whereas the other is slower but more accurate.
B)have two ways of thinking,one involved in heuristics and the other involved in anchoring.
C)have two ways of thinking,one involved in the availability heuristic and the other involved in the representative heuristic.
D)always take both the base rate and the diagnostic information into consideration when thinking about a situation.

Question 38

People tend to be more alert and responsive to evidence that supports their preexisting notions and beliefs than to evidence that challenges them.This effect is called

A)confirmation bias.
B)stereotypy.
C)base-rate error.
D)the covariation law.

Question 39

It would seem sensible to use ________ when making judgments that are not particularly important and ________ for more crucial decisions,but evidence on the dual-process system suggests this is NOT the case.

A)Type 1 thinking;Type 2 thinking
B)Type 2 thinking;Type 1 thinking
C)Type 1 thinking;heuristics
D)Type 2 thinking;heuristics

Question 40

Participants tend NOT to use base-rate information if they are also given

A)diagnostic information.
B)the prior probabilities.
C)statistical information.
D)information about the random device used to select the test case.

Question 41

"All dogs are animals.Some animals are pets.Therefore,some dogs are pets." This example is a(n)________ syllogism that is likely to be endorsed as ________ due to the belief bias.

A)valid;false
B)valid;true
C)invalid;false
D)invalid;true

Question 42

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend and the weekend before that.On the basis of this,Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions.Solomon is working on a problem of

A)deduction.
B)induction.
C)confirmation.
D)derivation.

Question 43

Ravi is shown a picture with many different breeds of dogs and is asked to discover the rule connecting all of the items in the picture.He believes the rule connecting all of the items is "must be a living thing," but before he announces his guess,he is allowed to propose a new addition to the picture.If Ravi is searching for disconfirming evidence,which of the following items will he propose?

A)a lion
B)a poodle
C)a plant
D)a rock

Question 44

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars.John is a politician.Therefore,John is a liar." You are most likely to agree that this is a logical argument if you

A)already distrusted John.
B)are surprised by the claim.
C)are surprised to learn John is a politician.
D)are relying on Type 1 thinking.

Question 45

In a new version of the Wason four-card task,participants are given the rule: "If you read the textbook,then you will get an A on the exam." Each card has a YES or NO on one side,indicating whether or not the student has read the textbook,and an exam grade on the other side.Compared with the original version of the task with just numbers and letters,participants should make

A)more accurate decisions about which cards to flip over in the new version,likely because the new content makes the problem more concrete and relatable to everyday life.
B)less accurate decisions about which cards to flip over in the new version,likely because the new content will make participants more likely to seek out disconfirming evidence.
C)less accurate decisions about which cards to flip over in the new version,likely because reasoning about exams will make people nervous and unable to focus on the problem.
D)similar decisions about which cards to flip over in the new version,likely because people are equally poor at reasoning about conditional statements regardless of the content.

Question 46

Maritza believes that clowns are evil.She meets two men who are very nice and then learns that they are clowns.Despite this,she does not adjust her belief and continues to think clowns are evil.This is called

A)attribute substitution.
B)deductive reasoning.
C)inductive reasoning.
D)belief perseverance.

Question 47

Jill has a gut feeling about which college she should attend.In Damasio's words,by using sensations of arousal,Jill is relying on ________ to make her decision.

A)somatic markers
B)rational judgments
C)utility
D)risk aversion

Question 48

Which of the following statements about the effects of emotion on decision making is FALSE?

A)People want to minimize regret.
B)Bodily reactions ("gut feelings")powerfully influence estimates of risk.
C)People usually assume the worst and are thus overly cautious.
D)People are often bad at forecasting future emotions,and this undermines the quality of decision making.

Question 49

The four-card task,in which participants must evaluate a rule by deciding which cards to turn over,provides an example of how

A)good we are at reasoning about syllogisms.
B)good we are at reasoning about most conditional statements.
C)poor we are at reasoning about some conditional statements.
D)poorly we perform on inductive tasks.

Question 50

"All rectangles have four sides.All squares have four sides.Therefore all rectangles are squares." This sequence happens to be invalid,but is

A)an example of belief bias.
B)an example of a categorical syllogism.
C)not a categorical syllogism,because it is invalid.
D)an example of conditional reasoning.

Question 51

Which of the following is the most plausible way to improve performance on the Wason four-card task?

A)Reframe the problem so that it uses valid categorical syllogisms instead of conditional statements.
B)Encourage participants to flip over all of the cards.
C)Change the context of the problem so that the participant imagines he or she is a cop searching a bar for underage drinkers.
D)Research suggests that nothing can be done to improve performance on this task.

Question 52

Samuel is asked to predict how he will feel if he doesn't get a promotion at work,a goal he has been working hard to achieve for the past year.Which of the following statements is most likely true regarding his prediction?

A)He will underestimate how long his disappointment will last.
B)He will overestimate how long his disappointment will last.
C)He will make a very accurate estimate of how long his disappointment will last.
D)He will not be able to make a very accurate estimate of anything,including whether or not he will feel positive or negative.

Question 53

Evidence from the four-card task suggests that

A)people perform poorly on virtual versions of this task.
B)performance on the task depends on the form of the problem,and not on the problem's specific content.
C)performance is equally bad on abstract versions of this task and concrete versions involving a familiar setting.
D)people's thinking can be improved if a problem contains the right triggers.

Question 54

According to the work of Tversky and Kahneman,people are likely to be ________ when dealing with potential losses,and ________ when dealing with potential gains.

A)risk seeking;risk averse
B)risk averse;risk seeking
C)risk seeking;risk seeking
D)worried;excited

Question 55

When selecting a course of action framed in terms of either losing lives or saving lives following an epidemic of a serious disease,people typically choose

A)the more risky option for lost lives and the less risky option for saved lives.
B)the least risky option.
C)the more risky option for saved lives and the less risky option for lost lives.
D)the most risky option.

Question 56

Which of the statements below would complete the following syllogism in a way to make it valid?: All busy people are stressed out.All professors are busy.

A)Therefore,all professors are stressed out.
B)Therefore,all busy people are professors.
C)Therefore,all stressed-out people are professors.
D)Therefore,you should not become a professor.

Question 57

Identify one of the premises in the following syllogism: All Dalmatians are dogs.Some Dalmatians have tails.Therefore,some dogs have tails.

A)"All Dalmatians are dogs."
B)"All Dalmatians have tails."
C)"Some dogs have tails."
D)"Some dogs are Dalmations"

Question 58

On Wednesday,the local weather channel forecast a 25% chance of rain,so Lisa took her umbrella to work.On Friday,the same station reported a 75% chance of no rain,so Lisa left her umbrella at home.The difference in Lisa's behavior between Wednesday and Friday illustrates the effect of

A)the representativeness heuristic.
B)the availability heuristic.
C)framing.
D)confirmation bias.

Question 59

People are more likely to judge a syllogism to be valid if

A)they are using Type 2 thinking.
B)they have formal training in logic.
C)the conclusion in the statement is believed to be true based on prior knowledge.
D)the syllogism is phrased in concrete terms.

Question 60

An inductive judgment is one in which a person

A)tries to make predictions about upcoming events on the basis of evidence already available.
B)tries to make a cause-and-effect judgment about an observed state of affairs.
C)begins with a general statement and asks what other specific claims follow from this.
D)tries to reason according to the rules of logic.

Question 61

Describe the ways that emotion can influence decision making.What tips would you give to a friend (or to yourself)to improve decision making under emotional duress?

Question 62

Molly is a member of the Forest Political Party,and she is certain that every member of the Mountains Political Party is evil and trying to ruin the country.Discuss how tendencies like confirmation bias and belief perseverance contribute to her beliefs and her evaluation of new evidence.

Question 63

Describe one situation in which your friend Maital might show evidence of risk aversion and another example in which she would show risk seeking.

Question 64

Describe the four-card task.In your description,include the following components:
a. the basic task
b. the type of logic that should govern correct performance on the task
c. the typical performance rates and how those are improved by changing components of the task

Question 65

Your friend Leslie is interested in buying a new car.A consumer magazine says that Car X is the best buy for her budget and needs.However,Leslie's brother bought Car X and hated it.To whom should Leslie listen in this situation? Why might she not?

Question 66

Compare and contrast Type 1 and Type 2 reasoning.Include in your discussion the benefits and drawbacks to each system,the instances in which each system would be used,and how changing the data format can lead to changes in use.

Question 67

Your friend Alex swears that,while driving to school every morning,he gets caught at almost every red light,which of course makes him late for class.You know that it is incredibly unlikely that he actually hits every red light.Assume that Alex isn't intentionally lying to you,and consider the factors that might lead him to truly believe that he is unlucky when it comes to red lights.

Question 68

People often make logical errors.Create a real-world example that illustrates the error in this categorical syllogism: All X are Y.All A are X.Therefore,all A are X.

Question 69

Aditi is terribly afraid of flying because she is certain the plane will crash.You know that the chances of a plane crash are exceedingly small,and you try to explain this to her.Given your knowledge of judgment and reasoning,describe the factors (i.e. ,judgment errors)that are contributing to her fear and give any tips that could help her overcome her fear.

Question 70

Consider the Asian disease problem.Describe the various ways the problem can be framed and how people typically respond in each situation.

Question 71

Describe the availability and representativeness heuristics,and provide real-life examples of each heuristic leading to an error.Explain why we would rely on these heuristics,if errors can (and do)occur.