Deck 11: Decision Making

Question 1

A model that specifies the means of evaluating the probability of a hypothesis is known as a(n)_____ model.

A) approximation
B) conservative
C) descriptive
D) prescriptive

Answer 1

prescriptive

Question 2

Which sequence of 10 coin tosses is MOST likely (H denotes heads and T denotes tails)? (1)H T H T H T H T H T
(2)H H T H T H T T T H
(3)T T T T T T T T T T

A) Sequence 1 is most likely.
B) Sequence 2 is most likely.
C) Sequence 3 is most likely.
D) Each sequence is equally likely.

Answer 2

Each sequence is equally likely.

Question 3

Bayes's theorem is a:

A) descriptive model because it specifies the means of evaluating the probability of a hypothesis.
B) descriptive model because it specifies what people actually do.
C) prescriptive model because it specifies the means of evaluating the probability of a hypothesis.
D) prescriptive model because it specifies what people actually do.

Answer 3

prescriptive model because it specifies the means of evaluating the probability of a hypothesis.

Question 4

Generally,participants _____ the frequency with which words begin with various letters.

A) accurately estimate
B) overestimate
C) underestimate
D) can approximate

Question 5

Tversky and Kahneman (1974)found that participants:

A) accurately judged that there are more words that begin with k than have k in the third position.
B) accurately judged that there are more words that have k in the third position than begin with k.
C) inaccurately judged that there are more words that begin with k than have k in the third position.
D) inaccurately judged that there are more words that have k in the third position than begin with k.

Question 6

Mr.Gee is under the impression that aliens exist.As evidence,he cites the several thousand individuals who claim to have been abducted by aliens.Yet he ignores that there are billions of individuals who do not claim abduction.This is an example of:

A) base-rate neglect.
B) conservatism.
C) the gambler's fallacy.
D) the law of averages.

Question 7

Bayes's theorem specifies how to:

A) combine the prior probability with the conditional probabilities to determine the posterior probability.
B) combine the prior probability with the posterior probability to determine the conditional probabilities.
C) combine the conditional probabilities with the posterior probability to determine the prior probabilities.
D) derive the posterior probability and the prior probability from the conditional probabilities.

Question 8

Evidence suggests that individuals rely on:

A) probabilities to make judgments.
B) relative frequencies to make judgments.
C) both probabilities and relative frequencies to make judgments.
D) relative frequencies only when probabilities yield incorrect judgments.

Question 9

The value we place on money is not always the same as the face value of the money.This is referred to as:

A) framing effects.
B) probability matching.
C) subjective probability.
D) subjective utility.

Question 10

The medial portion of the anterior prefrontal region is important to:

A) emotional regulation only.
B) emotional regulation and motivation only.
C) emotional regulation and social sensitivity only.
D) emotional regulation,motivation,and social sensitivity.

Question 11

Bayes's theorem is based on:

A) conjecture.
B) experimental evidence.
C) logical syllogisms.
D) probability.

Question 12

Damage to this area of the brain led to personality changes in Phineas Gage.

A) the hippocampus
B) the prefrontal cortex
C) the nucleus accumbens
D) the temporal cortex

Question 13

According to Goldstein and Gigerenzer (1999,2002),which group should perform best at judging relative sizes?

A) American students judging American cities
B) German students judging German cities
C) German students judging American cities
D) American students judging American cities and German students judging German cities

Question 14

Base-rate neglect decreases if events are stated in terms of:

A) conditionals instead of probabilities.
B) frequencies instead of conditionals.
C) frequencies instead of probabilities.
D) probabilities instead of frequencies.

Question 15

A model that specifies how people actually behave is known as a(n)_____ model.

A) approximation
B) conservative
C) descriptive
D) prescriptive

Question 16

If one of two objects is recognized and the other is not,you might infer that the recognized object has the higher value with respect to the criterion.This is known as the _____ heuristic.

A) availability
B) judgment
C) proximity
D) recognition

Question 17

In a study of medical diagnosis,Weber et al.(1993)found that doctors:

A) were sensitive to the evidence provide by the symptoms,but not to base rates.
B) were sensitive to base rates only when they ignored the evidence provided by symptoms.
C) were sensitive both to base rates and to the evidence provided by the symptoms.
D) ignored base rates,treating each symptom-supported disease as equally possible.

Question 18

How accurate are individuals when they try to judge proportions?

A) They are reasonably accurate at making these judgments when they rely on memory.
B) They are reasonably accurate at making these judgments when they do not rely on memory.
C) They are very accurate at making these judgments when they rely on memory.
D) They are very accurate at making these judgments when they do not rely on memory.

Question 19

Which statement is NOT true of Gluck and Bower's (1988)study on Bayesian behavior?

A) The proportion of the participants' choices was very close to the true probabilities.
B) Participants consistently overestimated the frequency of the rare disease.
C) Their judgments show no influence of base rate.
D) Participants implicitly used Bayesian behavior.

Question 20

A(n)_____ probability is the probability that a hypothesis is true before consideration of the evidence.

A) anterior
B) conditional
C) posterior
D) prior

Question 21

You are the mayor of a city.You have received word of an imminent attack that has the potential to destroy the entire town.Your best architect builds a shelter,but he cannot gather enough supplies.He tells you that the shelter can safely accommodate 200 of the town's 800 citizens.If you allow all 800 citizens into the shelter,there is a one-fourth probability that all will be saved,but a three-fourths probability that the supplies will run out and no one will be saved.You decide to hold an emergency town meeting to have the townspeople vote on what to do.Based on what you know about framing effects,how will they vote?

A) They will vote to shelter 200 of the 800 citizens.
B) They will vote to shelter all 800 citizens.
C) The options are mathematically equivalent;both options will be voted for equally.
D) Framing effects will not influence their vote.

Question 22

Shafir (1993)asked participants to play the role of the judge in a divorce case in which both parents are seeking custody.Parent A has an average income,average health,average working hours,reasonable rapport with the child,and a relatively stable social life.Parent B has an above-average income,minor health problems,lots of work-related travel,a very close relation with the child,and an extremely active social life.To whom were the participants more likely to award custody?

A) Parent A
B) Parent B
C) Females were more likely to vote for parent A;males were more likely to vote for parent B.
D) No significant trends were found.

Question 23

You are the mayor of a city.You have received word of an imminent attack that has the potential to destroy the entire town.Your best architect builds a shelter,but he cannot gather enough supplies.He tells you that the shelter cannot accommodate 600 of the town's 800 citizens.However,if you allow all 800 citizens into the shelter,there is a one-fourth probability that nobody will die,but a three-fourths probability that the supplies will run out and everyone will die.You decide to hold an emergency town meeting to have the townspeople vote on what to do.Based on what you know about framing effects,how should they vote?

A) They will vote to shelter 200 of the 800 citizens.
B) They will vote to shelter all 800 citizens.
C) The options are mathematically equivalent;both options will be voted for equally.
D) Framing effects will not influence their vote.

Question 24

In the Iowa gambling task,participants with ventromedial damage:

A) seem more emotionally engaged in card selection than do normal individuals.
B) seem less emotionally engaged in card selection than do normal individuals.
C) respond faster,but with greater inaccuracy compared with normal individuals.
D) respond slower,but with greater inaccuracy compared with normal individuals.

Question 25

Phrasing the same option in different ways can affect decision making.This is referred to as:

A) framing effects.
B) probability matching.
C) subjective probability.
D) subjective utility.

Question 26

The probability of a reward is represented in the activity of the:

A) cerebellum.
B) lateral geniculate nucleus.
C) nucleus accumbens.
D) ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

Question 27

Greene et al.(2001)found that the _____ is activated when one considers an impersonal dilemma.

A) hippocampus
B) nucleus accumbens
C) parietal cortex
D) ventromedial prefrontal cortex

Question 28

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex is:

A) absent in apes.
B) larger in apes than in humans.
C) smaller in apes than in humans.
D) of equal size in apes and in humans.

Question 29

Shafir (1993)asked participants to play the role of the judge in a divorce case in which both parents are seeking custody.Parent A has an average income,average health,average working hours,reasonable rapport with the child,and a relatively stable social life.Parent B has an above-average income,minor health problems,lots of work-related travel,a very close relation with the child,and an extremely active social life.To whom were the participants more likely to deny custody?

A) Parent A
B) Parent B
C) Males were more likely to vote for parent A;females were more likely to vote for parent B.
D) No significant trends were found.

Question 30

_____ have the dopamine reward system described in the text.

A) All mammals
B) Only primates
C) Only great apes and humans
D) Only humans

Question 31

Cocaine increases the level of _____ in the brain,resulting in a pleasurable feeling.

A) acetylcholine
B) dopamine
C) epinephrine
D) serotonin

Question 32

The dopamine system provides mammals with a basic ability to:

A) seek things that are rewarding and avoid things that are harmful.
B) avoid things that are harmful and reflect on their circumstances.
C) reflect on their circumstances and self-regulate.
D) self-regulate and seek things that are rewarding.

Question 33

Research suggests that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex might play an important role in:

A) emotional stability.
B) involuntary reflexes.
C) motor coordination.
D) self-regulation.

Question 34

Greene et al.(2001)found that the _____ is activated when one considers a personal dilemma.

A) hippocampus
B) nucleus accumbens
C) parietal cortex
D) ventromedial prefrontal cortex

Question 35

Compared with older adults,adolescents often perceive _____ danger from risky behaviors.

A) more
B) less
C) an equal amount of
D) no

Question 36

The difference between $15 and $10 seems greater than the difference between $125 and $120.This is an example of:

A) base-rate neglect.
B) framing effects.
C) subjective probability.
D) subjective utility.

Question 37

Someone might prefer a 4% chance at $200 than a 2% chance at $400.This is an example of:

A) base-rate neglect.
B) framing effects.
C) subjective probability.
D) subjective utility.

Question 38

The magnitude of a reward is represented in the activity of the:

A) cerebellum.
B) lateral geniculate nucleus.
C) nucleus accumbens.
D) ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

Question 39

Choosing among alternatives in proportion to their success is called:

A) framing effects.
B) probability matching.
C) subjective probability.
D) subjective utility.

Question 40

Which refers to one's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur?

A) framing effects
B) probability matching
C) subjective probability
D) subjective utility

Question 41

What is meant by conditional probability? By posterior probability? By prior probability?

Question 42

What is meant by base-rate neglect?

Question 43

Describe the methods and findings of the Edwards (1968)study on conservatism.

Question 44

Phineas Gage died shortly after his head injury.

Question 45

What factors lead to biases in probability estimates?

Question 46

What is the role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex?

Question 47

Describe the methods and findings of the Kahneman and Tversky (1973)study on base-rate neglect.

Question 48

What are two explanations as to why adolescents might engage in risky behavior?

Question 49

How are the dopamine system and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex involved in decision making?

Question 50

How are humans different from other mammals in their decision-making abilities?

Question 51

What is meant by conservatism?

Question 52

Why are adolescents more likely to engage in risky behaviors compared with adults?

Question 53

What is meant by probability matching?

Question 54

Why might someone prefer a 1% chance to win $500 than a 2% chance to win $250?

Question 55

What is Bayes's Theorem,and what is it used for? How does the behavior of human participants compare with the theorem's predictions?

Question 56

Describe the methods and findings of the Gluck and Bower (1988)study on implicit Bayesian behavior.

Question 57

What is a descriptive model? A prescriptive model?

Question 58

What is the recognition heuristic? Give an example of when it might be used.

Question 59

Describe the methods and findings of the Goldstein and Gigerenzer (1999,2002)studies on the recognition heuristic.

Question 60

You have flipped a coin nine times.Each time you flipped the coin,the outcome was Heads.Your friend Jimmy thinks that the tenth outcome is more likely to be Tails.Is he correct? Explain your answer.

Question 61

According to Kahneman and Tversky (1984)subjective probabilities are not identical with objective probabilities.In the function they calculated to describe this relationship,which part of the curve is overweighted?

A) very high objective probabilities
B) very high subjective probabilities
C) very low objective probabilities
D) very low subjective probabilities

Question 62

Individuals often ignore base rates when making probability judgments.

Question 63

The subjective utility of an outcome or a stimulus is directly paired to the release of which neurotransmitter in the reward pathway of the brain?

A) acetylcholine
B) norepinephrine
C) serotonin
D) dopamine

Question 64

German students do better than American students in judging the population of American cities.

Question 65

Individuals sometimes ignore posterior probabilities.This is referred to as base-rate neglect.

Question 66

Which part of the brain has a role in personality as seen in the case of Phineas Gage?

A) the amygdala
B) the hypothalamus
C) the ventromedial prefrontal cortex
D) the parietal lobe

Question 67

Participants' behavior based on experience often does not correspond to Bayes's theorem.

Question 68

A _____ model specifies the means of evaluating the probability of a hypothesis,while a _____ model specifies what people actually do.

A) hypothetical;empirical
B) conditional;syllogistic
C) prescriptive;descriptive
D) inductive;deductive

Question 69

In decision-making situations that involve financial rewards,researchers have found that the value people put on money is not linear with the face value of the money.This is referred to as:

A) biased estimation.
B) subjective utility.
C) incongruous valuation.
D) erroneous calibration.

Question 70

The study performed by Bechara (1994,2005)that employed the Iowa gambling task demonstrated that individuals who have damage to the _____of their brain have difficulty responding adaptively to probabilistic situations.

A) ventromedial prefrontal area
B) lateral geniculate nucleus
C) area 19
D) arcuate fasciculus

Question 71

Kahneman and Tversky have found in their research on decision making that people will make different choices for two different versions of the same question if the versions are worded in a slightly different manner.They referred to this phenomenon as:

A) framing effects.
B) subjective evaluation.
C) gambler's fallacy.
D) attitudinal preconception.

Question 72

Choosing among alternative options in proportion to their success is called probability matching.

Question 73

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex plays an important role in solving complex problems.

Question 74

Goldstein and Gigerenzer (1999,2002)display the utility of which decision-making heuristic in their study involving judging relative sizes of German cities?

A) anchoring and adjustment
B) representativeness
C) recognition
D) naïve diversification

Question 75

Adolescents perceive themselves to be invulnerable more so than do older adults.

Question 76

The way in which a problem is framed can influence decision making.

Question 77

The belief that,if an event has not occurred for a while,then it is more likely,by the "law of averages," to occur in the near future is known as the:

A) conditional probability.
B) mental model theory.
C) prior probability.
D) gambler's fallacy.

Question 78

In Bayes's theorem,the _____ probability is defined as the probability that a hypothesis is true before consideration of the evidence.

A) posterior
B) conditional
C) subjective
D) prior

Question 79

Individuals often ignore the accumulation of evidence when making probability judgments.