Deck 11: Judgments and Decisions

Question 1

The ________ view of inductive reasoning states that inductive reasoning involves special processes and representations that operate in the abstract,outside of any real-life context.

A)experience based
B)rule-based
C)categorization
D)confirmatory

Answer 1

rule-based

Question 2

The notion that there are limits to our powers of reasoning,judgment,and decision making is called

A)deductive reasoning.
B)inductive reasoning.
C)bounded rationality.
D)expected utility.

Answer 2

bounded rationality.

Question 3

"All toads are animals.All men are animals.Therefore,all men are toads." Many would evaluate this as a valid syllogism due to its ALL ALL ALL form.This is because

A)of belief bias.
B)people have trouble reasoning about familiar objects.
C)people have more trouble with universal quantifiers (e.g. ,ALL)than with particular ones (e.g. ,SOME).
D)of an atmosphere effect.

Answer 3

of an atmosphere effect.

Question 4

Deductive reasoning problems have all of the following characteristics except

A)going from general to specific.
B)very little constraint.
C)the application of algorithms for solution.
D)premises and conclusions.

Question 5

Immediate memory capacity is _____ with susceptibility to the belief-bias effect.

A)not correlated
B)negatively correlated
C)positively correlated
D)synonymous with

Question 6

In a valid syllogism,

A)the conclusion follows from the premises.
B)the premises are true.
C)the conclusion is true.
D)all of these answers are true.

Question 7

The ________ view of inductive reasoning states that inductive reasoning involves updating the strengths of one's beliefs based on the recall of specific instances.

A)experience-based
B)rule-based
C)categorization
D)confirmatory

Question 8

People often fail to choose correctly on the Watson Selection Task because they resist

A)affirming the antecedent.
B)confirmatory evidence.
C)disconfirmatory evidence.
D)affirming the consequent.

Question 9

Inductive reasoning

A)involves reasoning from specific instances to a general rule.
B)leads to a certain conclusion.
C)involves using premises to justify a conclusion.
D)is often associated with a bias to avoid confirming evidence.

Question 10

A friend heard somebody say,"If you are overweight,you are likely to smoke." This friend interprets this statement as,"If you smoke,then you are likely to be overweight." What kind of error is apparent in this example?

A)Inappropriate interpretation of an if-then statement as biconditional
B)Belief-bias effect
C)Attempts at confirming an hypothesis
D)Denying the antecedent

Question 11

The classic Watson Selection Task is a _____ reasoning task.

A)deontic
B)conditional
C)normative
D)syllogistic

Question 12

_____ refers to the processes involved in arriving at some conclusion under conditions of uncertainty and risk.

A)Decision making
B)Problem solving
C)Judgment
D)Reasoning

Question 13

According to the dual-process view of reasoning,judgment and decision making,which mode of thinking operates relatively slowly,deliberately,and in a controlled manner?

A)Heuristic mode
B)Rational mode
C)Bounded mode
D)Analytic mode

Question 14

_______ involves evaluation of a conclusion based solely on given information.

A)Decision making
B)Problem solving
C)Judgment
D)Reasoning

Question 15

Conditional reasoning

A)is a synonym for syllogistic reasoning.
B)is a form of inductive reasoning.
C)involves evaluating the validity of premises.
D)features an if-then form.

Question 16

Affirming the antecedent is also called ______ and is a(n)______ form.

A)modus ponens;valid
B)modus ponens;invalid
C)modus tollens;valid
D)modus tollens;invalid

Question 17

Myside bias is a more specific form of what general bias?

A)The atmosphere effect
B)Modus ponens
C)Fallacy of affirming the consequent
D)Confirmation bias

Question 18

A normative approach to the analysis of reasoning and decision making _____,while a descriptive approach to the analysis of reasoning and decision making

A)describes how we should think in a given situation;describes how we do think in these situations.
B)describes how we do think in a given situation;describes how we should think in these situations.
C)is irrational;is rational.
D)is rational;is irrational.

Question 19

If it rains tomorrow,then I'm not going to the baseball game.I did not go to the baseball game.So,it must have rained.This type of argument is called _______,and the conclusion,"It must have rained," is

A)denying the antecedent;invalid.
B)denying the consequent;valid.
C)affirming the consequent;invalid.
D)affirming the antecedent;valid.

Question 20

Denying the consequent is also called ______,and is a(n)______ form.

A)modus ponens;valid
B)modus ponens;invalid
C)modus tollens;valid
D)modus tollens;invalid

Question 21

Coincidences are extremely striking,and often lead people to believe in ________.The ease with which we think of coincidences makes them important players in the ______ heuristic.

A)illusory correlations;availability
B)illusory correlations;representativeness
C)stereotypes;availability
D)stereotypes;representativeness

Question 22

Suppose you hear about a friend who graduated from college in dramatic arts.Suppose you also judge her to be more likely to be both selling insurance and active in community theater than she is to be only selling insurance.You have

A)fallen victim to the anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
B)fallen prey to a conjunction fallacy.
C)ignored regression to the mean.
D)committed a belief bias error.

Question 23

In your book's example,you read a list of names and then tried to recall how many started with J;if you tended to overestimate the number of J names,it was probably due to the effects of _______ on the use of the _______ heuristic.

A)frequency;availability
B)familiarity;availability
C)stereotyping;representativeness
D)salience;representativeness

Question 24

Credit card companies' practice of providing you with a minimum payment on your monthly bill likely influences payments to the companies' advantage.This influence occurs,at least in part,due to

A)the availability heuristic.
B)illusory correlation.
C)representativeness heuristic.
D)anchoring and adjustment.

Question 25

A pet phrase of sports announcers that refers to situations in which it seems a player can do no wrong (a quarterback completing all his pass attempts in a half or a basketball player making all his three point attempts in a quarter)is called

A)superstition effect.
B)gambler's fallacy.
C)hot hand.
D)in with the Gods.

Question 26

Reasoning from a stereotype is most closely related to this heuristic:

A)the representativeness heuristic.
B)simulation.
C)the availability heuristic.
D)anchoring and adjustment.

Question 27

Our tendency to avoid situations in which many people may be killed while simultaneously being relatively impervious to risky situations in which deaths are more spread out is called

A)anchoring.
B)fatality fear.
C)dread risk.
D)fatal risk assessment.

Question 28

Suppose you had somebody guess how a sequence of 10 coin flips would play itself out (e.g. ,THTHHHTHHT).If people did this task,they would tend to ____ the number of alternations,due to their reliance on the ______ heuristic.

A)overestimate;availability
B)overestimate;representativeness
C)underestimate;availability
D)underestimate;representativeness

Question 29

The "Madden jinx" is the purported tendency for a person to perform poorly after being touted on the yearly version of the popular video game.Our perception of this outcome as a "jinx" is due to

A)confirmation bias.
B)our ignorance of regression toward the mean.
C)superstition bias.
D)a hindsight bias.

Question 30

The belief that after a run of bad luck a change is due to occur is called

A)superstition effect.
B)gambler's fallacy.
C)hot hand.
D)an "in" with the gods.

Question 31

Intuitively,it seems that spacing out instances of a given concept or rule would make it ______ to learn the concept/rule.Research conducted by Kornell and Bjork (2008)_______ this intuition,revealing that ______ repetitions led to better learning.

A)more difficult;supports;massed
B)more difficult;refutes;spaced
C)easier;supports;massed
D)easier;refutes;spaced

Question 32

Which of these everyday sayings defines the hindsight effect?

A)"Experience is the best teacher."
B)"I could have told you that was going to happen."
C)"Those who fail to learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them."
D)"Absence makes the heart grow fonder."

Question 33

When you ask people what caused more deaths - accidents and homicides or strokes and diabetes - people will guess accidents and homicides,even though it is strokes and diabetes (and it's not even really close).This is most likely due to

A)the availability heuristic.
B)confirmatory bias.
C)the representativeness heuristic.
D)an atmosphere effect.

Question 34

Hastie,Schkade,and Payne (1999)looked at the hindsight bias in the context of mock civil litigation.In a foresight condition,participants were told that a dangerous situation was developing along a railroad line,and given an extensive set of facts,were then asked to estimate the foreseeability of an accident.In the hindsight condition,participants were given the same set of facts,but were told the accident had already occurred.They were also asked to predict the foreseeability of the accident.Participants in the hindsight condition were more likely than those in the foresight condition to judge the defendant as

A)liable.
B)reckless.
C)disregarding grave risk.
D)all of these.

Question 35

The more recently something has happened,the _____ likely it is to affect our judgment,due to

A)less;an atmosphere effect.
B)more;the availability heuristic.
C)more;anchoring effects.
D)less;the representativeness heuristic.

Question 36

When your best friend divorces,her mother tells her,"I'm sorry for you,but I knew this would eventually happen.You were never really right for each other." This is an example of the

A)framing effect.
B)availability heuristic.
C)hindsight bias.
D)illusory correlation.

Question 37

When people estimate confidence intervals,they tend to provide intervals that are too ____,thus showing

A)narrow;underconfidence.
B)narrow;overconfidence.
C)wide;underconfidence.
D)wide;overconfidence.

Question 38

Vivid news reports that highlight the danger of serial killers,terrorist threats,and toxic substances in food may heighten public concern beyond a level that's reasonable due to

A)hindsight bias.
B)the representativeness heuristic.
C)an atmosphere effect.
D)the availability heuristic.

Question 39

People tend to ignore the base rate of some occurrence in the population in making their judgments.For example,they assume anyone over 6 feet,6 inches tall must have played a lot of basketball,even though the majority of individuals have not played much basketball.This is a prime example of

A)regression to the mean.
B)the availability heuristic.
C)the representativeness heuristic.
D)anchoring and adjustment.

Question 40

When we make judgments,we often have to do so in the absence of information or computational skill.Because of this,we must often rely on

A)problem space.
B)algorithms.
C)heuristics.
D)premises.

Question 41

If you want someone to be willing to take a risk,you can make it more likely by

A)telling them what they stand to gain if they don't take the risk.
B)telling them what they stand to lose if they don't take the risk.
C)pitting the risk against a sure gain.
D)doing nothing special;risk-taking is people's "default mode."

Question 42

The book demonstration in which you lose $10 or a theater ticket and are faced with the dilemma of whether or not to purchase a second ticket,people who lose the ticket will be _______ likely to purchase the ticket because of

A)more;psychological accounting.
B)more;expected utility.
C)less;psychological accounting.
D)less;expected utility.

Question 43

Porcelli and Delgado (2009)investigated the effects of acute stress on framing effects in decision making.They found that

A)acute stress reversed the typical framing effect.
B)acute stress accentuated the typical framing effect.
C)acute stress had no influence on the typical framing effect.
D)the framing effect obtained depended on the particular nature of the stressor.

Question 44

Levav and Argo (2010)were interested in how different types of touching would influence participant decision making (i.e. ,the amount participants would invest in a risky fund).In which of these conditions did participants risk the most?

A)No touching
B)Touched on the shoulder by a male
C)Touched on the shoulder by a female
D)Handshake with a male

Question 45

Which of these is an example of the sunk-cost effect?

A)Sally is too sick to go out,but decides to attend the play since she paid $40 for the ticket.
B)Jenny relents to the high-pressure sales person and spends $550 on accessories she doesn't need.
C)Despite continued losses,Tony continues to play the ponies at the local track.
D)Aaron has a decent seat for the basketball game,but decides to upgrade them by buying much better seats

Question 46

Choice architecture is designed primarily to

A)set decisions up so that quick (System 1)processes arrive at acceptable decisions.
B)preempt System 1,so that people rely only on System 2.
C)improve System 2 reasoning.
D)set decisions up so people don't need either System 1 or System 2.

Question 47

Compare a $50 gain and a $50 loss.Which of these is more psychologically powerful,according to prospect theory?

A)They have equal value.
B)A $50 gain is more psychologically powerful.
C)It depends on the particular situation.
D)A $50 loss is more psychologically powerful.

Question 48

According to the expected utility theory,our choices should _____ show invariance.Invariance refers to

A)never;failing to change our choices even when circumstances dictate we should.
B)never;failing to change a course of action once it's been chosen.
C)always;preferring one alternative over another,no matter how the alternatives are presented.
D)always;sticking with a course of action once it's been chosen.

Question 49

According to Marchiori,Papies,and Klein (2013),in terms of anchoring,what can we do to reduce overeating?

A)Use a smaller plate.
B)Eat with friends.
C)Eat with distractions.
D)Use different utensils.

Question 50

Tversky and Kahneman (1983)asked people whether it was more likely if Linda (a fictional person involved in political movements)was a bank teller or a bank teller who was a feminist.More people chose the bank teller who was a feminist,which demonstrates which concept?

A)Conjunction fallacy
B)Hindsight bias
C)Ignoring base rates
D)Biased retrieval