Deck 13: Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning

Question 1

Donte purchased a new car, a Ford Mustang, less than a month ago. While sitting in traffic, Donte says to his girlfriend, "Mustangs must be the best-selling car now. I can't remember seeing as many on the road as I have recently." Donte's judgment is most likely biased by a(n)

A) representativeness heuristic.
B) availability heuristic.
C) illusory correlation.
D) permission schema.

Answer 1

availability heuristic.

Question 2

Tuan bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase. On the first day he went out wearing the new garment, he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office. He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune. Tuan's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of

A) the availability heuristic.
B) an illusory correlation.
C) selective attention.
D) the falsification principle.

Answer 2

an illusory correlation.

Question 3

The conjunction rule states that

A) the probability of two events co-occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each event occurring.
B) the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone.
C) people make decisions based upon both the costs and benefits of the choices.
D) people make decisions based upon possible benefits when the choices are framed positively and based upon possible costs when the choices are framed negatively.

Answer 3

the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone.

Question 4

Lydia is 48 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following alternatives is most probable?

A) Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman.
B) Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman and active in the feminist movement.
C) Lydia is a state governor.
D) Lydia is a state governor and active in the feminist movement.

Question 5

Gabrielle is blonde, extremely attractive, and lives in an expensive condo. If we judge the probability of Gabrielle's being a model quite high because she resembles our stereotype of a model, we are using

A) the representativeness heuristic.
B) the availability heuristic.
C) framing.
D) the law of small numbers.

Question 6

Making probable conclusions based on evidence involves_________________reasoning.

A) deductive
B) syllogistic
C) inductive
D) connective

Question 7

Of the following real-world phenomena, the confirmation bias best explains the observation that people

A) do not always make decisions that maximize their monetary outcome.
B) are more likely to purchase meat advertised as 80 percent fat free than 20 percent fat.
C) misjudge homicide as more prevalent in the U.S. than suicide.
D) can cite several reasons for their position on a controversial issue but none for the opposing side.

Question 8

Bonnie has ordered her monthly supply of medicines through the mail for the past five years. Except for one order, all orders have arrived within two business days. Bonnie placed an order yesterday, and she expects to receive her order tomorrow. Bonnie is using

A) an omission bias.
B) inductive reasoning.
C) the conjunction rule.
D) the similarity-coverage model.

Question 9

Stereotypes are reinforced by all of the following EXCEPT

A) the availability heuristic.
B) illusory correlations.
C) selective attention.
D) the falsification principle.

Question 10

Imagine that your friend James has just taken up the habit of smoking cigars because he thinks it makes him look cool. You are concerned about the detrimental effects of smoking on his health, and you raise that concern to him. James gets a bit annoyed with your criticism and says, "My grandfather smoked cigars, and he lived to be 100!" You might point out that a major problem with his argument involves

A) framing.
B) the conjunction rule.
C) sample size.
D) none of these

Question 11

Consider the following argument:
Observation: Here in Nashville, the sun has risen every morning. Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Nashville tomorrow.

A) The argument is weak because there is only one specific case.
B) The argument is strong because the premise includes scientific evidence.
C) The argument is weak because the observation does not consider other cities.
D) The argument is strong because there are a large number of observations.

Question 12

At a lunch meeting with a client, the CEO of Gossip Polls, Inc., was asked to determine America's favorite day of the week. Hundreds of Gossip employees across the U.S. started collecting data immediately, calling people at their residences. One hour later, the attitudes from 10,000 Americans, across all 50 states, were collected. A staff member called the CEO, still at her lunch meeting, to tell her the results of the poll: America's favorite day of the week is Monday. Given your text's discussion of inductive reasoning in science, we might suspect that the observations in this poll are not representative because

A) the participants were only asked one question for this poll.
B) the participants were not sufficiently geographically diverse.
C) the people who are home to answer the phone in the early afternoon are not an appropriate cross-section of the U.S. population.
D) everyone in America was not asked their opinion.

Question 13

There are two gumball machines outside the local grocery store, one large machine and one small machine. Both machines have only yellow and orange gumballs, and each machine contains 50 percent of each color. For each coin, the large gumball machine dispenses 15 gumballs, while the small machine dispenses 5. Tim is a young genius whose interests include probability and sound decision-making. His "probability project of the day" is to get a greater percentage of either of the colors, but not an equal amount of each color. Given this, and presuming Tim has only one coin,

A) he should use his coin in the large machine.
B) he should use his coin in the small machine.
C) it doesn't make a difference which machine he uses.
D) he should wait for other people to use the machines and see what they get.

Question 14

Failing to consider the law of large numbers most likely results in errors concerning

A) confirmation bias.
B) utility.
C) the falsification principle.
D) the representativeness heuristic.

Question 15

The finding that people tend to incorrectly conclude that more people die from tornados than from asthma has been explained in terms of the

A) representativeness heuristic.
B) availability heuristic.
C) falsification principle.
D) belief bias.

Question 16

Mia has lived in New York City all her life. She has noticed that people from upper Manhattan walk really fast, but people from lower Manhattan tend to walk slowly. Mia's observations are likely influenced from a judgment error based on her using

A) the law of large numbers.
B) an atmosphere effect.
C) an illusory correlation.
D) the falsification principle.

Question 17

Terrell volunteers his time to campaign for Joel Goodman. He spent all afternoon putting up "Goodman for Congress" signs around his town and arrived back at headquarters just in time to watch the Goodman- Hernandez debate on TV. Terrell was eager to watch the candidates debate each other, even though he was 100 percent sure he was going to vote for Goodman. Terrell's first response to the debate will most likely be

A) "I noticed that Goodman and Hernandez agreed on the new environmental policy."
B) "Goodman answered the question on job creation very well."
C) "I wonder why Goodman was vague on the school tax issue when I know he has a clear idea about that."
D) "Hernandez is really going to make this a tight race."

Question 18

One hundred students are enrolled in State University's course on introductory physics for math and science majors. In the group, 60 students are math majors and 40 are science majors. Sarah is in the class. She got all As in her high school science courses, and she would like to be a chemist someday. She lives on campus. Her boyfriend is also in the class. There is a _________________ chance that Sarah is a science major.

A) 40 percent
B) 50 percent
C) 60 percent
D) 100 percent

Question 19

If a motorcycle cop believes that young female drivers speed more than other drivers, he will likely notice young female drivers speeding in the fast lane but fail to notice young male or older drivers doing the same. In this case, the police officer's judgments are skewed by the operation of the

A) permission schema.
B) confirmation bias.
C) falsification principle.
D) typicality principle.

Question 20

Wally and Shamika are out on a date. When Shamika asks where they should go for dinner, Wally says, "My coworkers keep telling me about that new Japanese place downtown, so it must be a great place to eat." Wally's response illustrates the use of a(n)

A) availability heuristic.
B) confirmation bias.
C) conjunction rule.
D) permission schema.

Question 21

Many people receive unsolicited calls from telemarketers or unwanted "junk" mailers advertising offers for products such as cable or Internet services or cellular phone companies. Most people do not consider these offers and do not make a change to the plans or services that they receive because they do not want to make a decision that requires serious consideration or thought. This is an example of the _________________ bias.

A) actor-observer
B) dual systems
C) self-serving
D) status quo

Question 22

Given its definition, expected utility theory is most applicable to deciding whether to

A) break up or stay involved with a current girlfriend.
B) go out for junior varsity hockey or junior varsity basketball.
C) buy first-class or coach tickets for a spring break trip.
D) take astronomy or geology as a physical science elective course.

Question 23

Consider the following syllogism:
All cats are birds. All birds have wings. All cats have wings.
This syllogism is

A) valid.
B) invalid.
C) true.
D) both valid and true.

Question 24

A syllogism is valid if

A) the conclusion follows logically from the two premises.
B) the two premises and the conclusion are true.
C) there is evidence to support the two premises.
D) there is no more than one exception to the conclusion.

Question 25

Consider the following syllogism:
Premise 1: All dogs are cats.
Premise 2: All cats say "meow."
Conclusion: Therefore, all dogs say "meow."
Which statement below describes this syllogism?

A) Both premises are valid.
B) The conclusion is valid.
C) The conclusion is not valid.
D) The conclusion is true.

Question 26

The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable is called the _________________.

A) availability heuristic
B) confirmatory bias
C) belief bias
D) mental set

Question 27

Research in neuroeconomics has found that the function of the _________________ may be to deal with the cognitive demands of a given task, while the _________________ is responsible for handling emotional goals such as resenting an unfair outcome.

A) basal ganglia; corpus callosum
B) striate nucleus; locus coeruleus
C) prefrontal cortex; insula
D) diencephalon; putamen

Question 28

If you are given the information that in order to vote in a presidential election, you must be at least 18 years of age, and that Will voted in the last presidential election, you can logically conclude that Will is at least 18 years old. This is an example of using _________________ reasoning.

A) inductive
B) deductive
C) conjunctive
D) descriptive

Question 29

Josiah is trying to decide whether to take a new job in a new city. He is worried that if he takes the job and fails, he will suffer from intense anxiety and depression. This is an example of

A) expected emotion.
B) immediate emotion.
C) integral immediate emotion.
D) incidental immediate emotion.

Question 30

An experiment measures participants' performance in judging syllogisms. Two premises and a conclusion are presented as stimuli, and participants are asked to indicate (yes or no) if the conclusion logically follows from the premises. Error rates are then calculated for each syllogism. This experiment studies _________________ reasoning.

A) deductive
B) intuitive
C) falsification
D) inductive

Question 31

The validity of a syllogism depends on

A) the truth of its premises.
B) the truth of its conclusion.
C) its form.
D) both the truth of its premises and the truth of its conclusion.

Question 32

Rosa is in a convenience store considering which soda to buy. She recalls a commercial for BigFizz she saw on TV last night. BigFizz is running a promotion where you look under the bottle cap, and one in five bottles has a voucher for a free soda. If Rosa decides to purchase a BigFizz based on this promotion, which is framed in terms of _________________ , she will use a _________________ strategy.

A) losses; risk-taking
B) gains; risk-taking
C) losses; risk-aversion
D) gains; risk-aversion

Question 33

Ling is sure that if her boyfriend proposes, she will feel elation. This is an example of an

A) expected emotion.
B) immediate emotion.
C) integral immediate emotion.
D) incidental immediate emotion.

Question 34

People tend to overestimate

A) what negative feelings will occur following a decision more so than positive feelings.
B) what positive feelings will occur following a decision more so than negative feelings.
C) what positive and negative feelings will occur following a decision to the same degree.
D) subjective utility values following a decision.

Question 35

Sandeep is a generally anxious person. His anxiety sometimes gets in the way when he tries to make decisions. The anxiety Sandeep feels is an example of an __________ emotion.

A) expected
B) immediate
C) integral
D) incidental

Question 36

In an experiment that combined both physiological and behavioral approaches to the study of decision making, prefrontal cortex activity was recorded while participants accepted or rejected proposals to split a sum of money ($10). Prefrontal cortex activation was

A) greatest for accepted offers.
B) greatest for rejected offers.
C) the same for accepted and rejected offers.
D) dependent on how much money the responder was offered.

Question 37

Utility refers to

A) outcomes that achieve a person's goals.
B) how useful a reasoning process is.
C) the validity of a syllogism.
D) degree of risk aversion one has.

Question 38

Cecile has dreamed of owning her own home for years, and she can finally afford a small cottage in an older neighborhood. She notices that she feels more positive about her home when she takes a route on her drive home that goes past the abandoned shacks, but she feels more negative when she takes a route that goes past the mansions with large lawns. Cecile's emotions are influenced by

A) the principle of diversity.
B) confirmation bias.
C) the framing effect.
D) the law of large numbers.

Question 39

Consider the following syllogism: If it's a robin then it is a bird.
It is a bird.
Therefore, it is a robin.
In the example above, "Therefore, it is a robin" is a _________________ of a _________________ syllogism.

A) premise; categorical
B) conclusion; categorical
C) premise; conditional
D) conclusion; conditional

Question 40

Sanfey and coworkers' "ultimatum game" experiment revealed that people tended to make the _________________ decision of ____.

A) irrational; accepting any offer
B) irrational; accepting only high offers
C) rational; accepting any offer
D) rational; accepting only high offers

Question 41

Which of the following activities would require Type 2 cognitive processing?

A) Zipping your jacket when it's cold
B) Choosing an entree from a menu
C) Making a left turn on a green light
D) Turning the lights off at bedtime

Question 42

Explain the difference between validity and truth in deductive reasoning. Provide examples of each concept to support your thinking.

Question 43

The evolutionary approach proposes that the Wason problem can be understood in terms of people's

A) innate language abilities.
B) ability to work well with a group of others.
C) innate reasoning abilities.
D) tendency to detect when others are cheating.

Question 44

One reason that most people do not easily solve the original (abstract) version of the Wason four-card problem is that they

A) ignore the falsification principle.
B) are influenced by the atmosphere effect.
C) confuse the ideas of validity and truth.
D) incorrectly apply the permission schema.

Question 45

Define both deductive and inductive reasoning, and explain how they are different. Give examples of each to support your thinking.

Question 46

The expected utility theory of decision making is grounded in which of the following?

A) Emotion
B) Rationality
C) Context
D) Evidence

Question 47

From a thinking perspective, when faced with making a decision, the suggestion to "Go with your gut" would emphasize ________, while the suggestion "Take your time" would place emphasis on ________.

A) System 2; System 1
B) Type 2; Type 1
C) System 1; Type 1
D) Type 1; System 2

Question 48

The phrase "You just hear what you want to hear" best reflects which of the following concepts?

A) Belief bias
B) Expected emotion
C) Myside bias
D) Availability heuristic

Question 49

Use of the word "If" is a good way to identify a(n) ________ syllogism.

A) categorical
B) conditional
C) irrational
D) invalid

Question 50

Which of the following statements would most likely invoke the operation of a permission schema?

A) No artists can be beekeepers, but some of the beekeepers must be chemists.
B) All A are B. All B are C. Therefore, all A are C.
C) I forgot to charge my cell phone last night; therefore, I missed an important call today.
D) If I get an A on my cognitive psychology exam, I can go out with my friends on Saturday night.

Question 51

Consider the following conditional syllogism:
Premise 1: If I study, then I'll get a good grade.
Premise 2: I got a good grade.
Conclusion: Therefore, I studied.
This syllogism is

A) valid.
B) skewed.
C) invalid.
D) robust.

Question 52

"You can't have any pudding unless you eat your meat," says a man to his son at the dinner table. This is an example of

A) inductive reasoning.
B) a self-serving bias.
C) a permission schema.
D) the illusory correlation.

Question 53

When the "abstract" version of the Wason four-card problem is compared to a "concrete" version of the problem (in which beer, soda, and ages are substituted for the letters and numbers),

A) performance is better for the concrete task.
B) performance is better for the abstract task.
C) performance is the same for both tasks.
D) performing the abstract task improves performance of the concrete task.

Question 54

Discuss how a person's judgments are affected by the way choices are framed. Give an example of a choice framed in terms of gains and an example of a choice framed in terms of losses. Which decision-making strategy is likely to be used in each case? Why?

Question 55

Which of the following does NOT reflect the System 1 approach to thinking as proposed by Kahneman?

A) Passive
B) Deliberate
C) Rapid
D) Automatic

Question 56

According to your text, the key to solving the Wason four-card problem is

A) a mental model.
B) a categorical syllogism.
C) the law of large numbers.
D) the falsification principle.

Question 57

In an effort to get his sister Sharon to vaccinate her young children, Frank compiled the results from many scientific research studies that show the long-term health benefits of childhood vaccines. Yet when Frank presented the information to Sharon, she refused to believe him, stating that the research was clearly faked by large pharmaceutical companies. Sharon not only said that vaccines are risky but also now claims they are poisonous.
What occurred in the conversation between Frank and Sharon?

A) Falsification principle
B) Belief bias
C) Mental modeling
D) Backfire effect

Question 58

Consider the following conditional syllogism:
Premise 1: If I don't eat lunch today, I will be hungry tonight.
Premise 2: I ate lunch today.
Conclusion: Therefore, I wasn't hungry tonight.
This syllogism is

A) valid.
B) invalid.
C) biased.
D) abstract.

Question 59

The application of a(n) _________________ makes it easier to solve the "drinking beer" version of the Wason problem.

A) conjunction rule
B) permission schema
C) atmosphere effect
D) availability heuristic

Question 60

The rule of the Wason four-card problem is, "If there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side." Let's say you are presented with A, 8, M, and 13, each showing on one of four cards. To see if the rule is valid, you would have to turn over the cards showing

A) 8 and M.
B) A and M.
C) A and 13.
D) 8 and 13.

Question 61

Compare and contrast the "system" and "type" approaches to thinking. Why do professionals generally favor one perspective over the other? Give examples of situations from each perspective to support your thinking.

Question 62

Explain the meaning of the statement, "Justice is what the judge had for breakfast." What cognitive factors are implicated in this perspective? How might this impact our legal system, and what strategies could be employed to address it?

Question 63

Why might training in media literacy be important for young people? Ground your argument in cognitive psychology concepts, and provide examples from the current media landscape to support your opinion.

Question 64

What is the backfire effect? What cognitive factors are at work in this process? Describe a time when you have experienced the backfire effect with someone else-either exhibiting it or receiving it.

Question 65

Compare and contrast myside bias and confirmation bias. Give an example of each concept to support your thinking.