Exam 13: Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning
Failing to consider the law of large numbers most likely results in errors concerning
D
Lydia is 48 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following alternatives is most probable?
A
What is the backfire effect? What cognitive factors are at work in this process? Describe a time when you have experienced the backfire effect with someone else-either exhibiting it or receiving it.
The backfire effect is a cognitive bias in which people reject evidence that contradicts their beliefs, causing them to become even more strongly entrenched in those beliefs. This can happen when a person's core beliefs are challenged, leading to a defensive reaction that actually strengthens their original position.
Several cognitive factors are at work in this process. One factor is confirmation bias, in which people seek out and interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs. When faced with contradictory evidence, they may dismiss it or reinterpret it to fit their preconceived notions. Another factor is cognitive dissonance, which occurs when a person experiences psychological discomfort from holding conflicting beliefs or attitudes. To reduce this discomfort, they may reject the contradictory evidence and cling even more tightly to their original beliefs.
I can recall a time when I experienced the backfire effect while discussing climate change with a friend. Despite presenting them with scientific evidence supporting the reality of climate change, my friend became defensive and dismissed the evidence as biased or unreliable. This led to a heated argument and ultimately reinforced their belief that climate change was a hoax. In this instance, the backfire effect was at play as my friend's existing beliefs were so deeply ingrained that they rejected any information to the contrary, leading to a strengthening of their original position.
When the "abstract" version of the Wason four-card problem is compared to a "concrete" version of the problem (in which beer, soda, and ages are substituted for the letters and numbers),
Tuan bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase. On the first day he went out wearing the new garment, he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office. He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune. Tuan's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of
The phrase "You just hear what you want to hear" best reflects which of the following concepts?
The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable is called the _________________.
Which of the following does NOT reflect the System 1 approach to thinking as proposed by Kahneman?
At a lunch meeting with a client, the CEO of Gossip Polls, Inc., was asked to determine America's favorite day of the week. Hundreds of Gossip employees across the U.S. started collecting data immediately, calling people at their residences. One hour later, the attitudes from 10,000 Americans, across all 50 states, were collected. A staff member called the CEO, still at her lunch meeting, to tell her the results of the poll: America's favorite day of the week is Monday. Given your text's discussion of inductive reasoning in science, we might suspect that the observations in this poll are not representative because
The evolutionary approach proposes that the Wason problem can be understood in terms of people's
Of the following real-world phenomena, the confirmation bias best explains the observation that people
Compare and contrast myside bias and confirmation bias. Give an example of each concept to support your thinking.
Consider the following syllogism:
All cats are birds. All birds have wings. All cats have wings.
This syllogism is
Bonnie has ordered her monthly supply of medicines through the mail for the past five years. Except for one order, all orders have arrived within two business days. Bonnie placed an order yesterday, and she expects to receive her order tomorrow. Bonnie is using
Consider the following argument:
Observation: Here in Nashville, the sun has risen every morning. Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Nashville tomorrow.
Making probable conclusions based on evidence involves_________________reasoning.
An experiment measures participants' performance in judging syllogisms. Two premises and a conclusion are presented as stimuli, and participants are asked to indicate (yes or no) if the conclusion logically follows from the premises. Error rates are then calculated for each syllogism. This experiment studies _________________ reasoning.
Consider the following conditional syllogism:
Premise 1: If I don't eat lunch today, I will be hungry tonight.
Premise 2: I ate lunch today.
Conclusion: Therefore, I wasn't hungry tonight.
This syllogism is
Filters
- Essay(0)
- Multiple Choice(0)
- Short Answer(0)
- True False(0)
- Matching(0)