Table 14-5 The Following Data Consists of a Matrix of Transition Probabilities

Multiple Choice

Table 14-5
The following data consists of a matrix of transition probabilities (P) of three potential diseases, and the initial incidence of each disease π(0) .Assume that each state represents a disease (Disease 1, Disease 2, Disease 3, respectively) and the transition probabilities represent changes from one checkup to the next.
P =

π(0) = (.3, .3, .4)
-Using the data in Table 14-5, determine Disease 1's estimated incidence in the next period.

A) 0.32
B) 0.34
C) 0.36
D) 0.38