You Ask Several of Your Friends to Rate the Likelihood

Multiple Choice

You ask several of your friends to rate the likelihood of the following statements: (1) There will be a flood in British Columbia, (2) There will be an earthquake in British Columbia that causes a flood. Almost all of your friends rate statement (2) as more likely. These likelihood estimates are _____________ and illustrate the use of _____________.

A) correct; inductive reasoning
B) incorrect; the representativeness heuristic
C) correct; the availability heuristic
D) incorrect; a confirmation bias