Use the Data Shown Below to Answer the Following Question(s)

Multiple Choice

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s) .
Captain Jack Automobiles launched a new car and tabulated the below data for the new launch. The project manager identified the following distributions and parameters for these variables:
Market size: normal with a mean of 2,000,000 units and a standard deviation of 400,000 units
R&D costs: uniform between $639,000,000 and $781,000,000
Test Drives: lognormal with mean of $160,000,000 and standard deviation $16,000,000
Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%,maximum = 6%,and most likely = 3%
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%,maximum = 25%,and most likely = 20%
Use 5,000 trials to generate the simulation model using Crystal Ball.
-For the given data set,what is the approximate percentage of risk that the NPV over the five years will not be positive?

A) 31%
B) 0%
C) 68%
D) 99%