TABLE 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Ŷ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where Ŷ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-14, in testing the coefficient of X in the regression equation (0.117) the results were a t-statistic of 9.08 and an associated p-value of 0.0000. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

A) The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is significantly different from 0% (α = 0.05) .
B) The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is not significantly different from 0% (α = 0.05) .
C) The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is significantly different from 100% (α = 0.05) .
D) The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is not significantly different from 100% (α = 0.05) .