A Market Research Firms Conducts Studies Regarding the Success of New

Multiple Choice

A market research firms conducts studies regarding the success of new products.The company is not always perfect in predicting the success.Suppose that there is a 50% chance that any new product would be successful (and a 50% chance that it would fail) .In the past, for all new products that ultimately were successful, 80% were predicted to be successful (and the other 20% were inaccurately predicted to be failures) .Also, for all new products that were ultimately failures, 70% were predicted to be failures (and the other 30% were inaccurately predicted to be successes) .What is the a priori probability that a new product would be a success?

A) 0.50
B) 0.80
C) 0.70
D) 0.60
E) 0.95