Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .50, .30, and .20. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 45 \\2 & 48 \\3 & 42 \\4 & 48 \\5 & 49 \\6 & 54 \\7 & 47 \\8 & 50 \\9 & 46 \\10 & 47 \\\hline\end{array}$$