Refer to the Following:
the Manufacturer of Beanie Baby Dolls $P _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D 1 _ { t } + c _ { 2 } D 2 _ { t } + c _ { 3 } D 3 _ { t }$

Multiple Choice

Refer to the following:
The manufacturer of Beanie Baby dolls used quarterly price data for 2005I - 2013IV (t = 1, ..., 36) and the regression equation
$P _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D 1 _ { t } + c _ { 2 } D 2 _ { t } + c _ { 3 } D 3 _ { t }$
to forecast doll prices in the year 2014.
$P _ { t }$ is the quarterly price of dolls, and
$D 1 _ { t } , D 2 _ { t }$ and
$D 3 _ { t }$ are dummy variables for quarters I, II, and III, respectively.
$\begin{array}{rllll}\text { DEPENDENT VARIABLE: } & \text { PT } & \text { R-SQUARE } & \text { F-RATIO } & \text { P-VALUE ON F } \\\text { OBSERVATIONS: } & 36 & 0.9078 & 76.34 & 0.0001\end{array}$

$\begin{array}{lllll}\text { VARIABLE } & \text { PARAMETER } & \text { STANDARD } & T-RATIO&P-VALUE \\\text { ESTERCEPT } & 24.0 & 6.20 & 3.87 & 0.0005 \\\text { T } & 0.800 & 0.240 & 3.33 & 0.0022 \\\text { D1 } & -8.0 & 2.60 & -3.08 & 0.0043 \\\text { D2 } & -6.00 & 1.80 & -3.33 & 0.0022 \\\text { D3 } & -4.0 & 0.60 & -6.67 & 0.0001\end{array}$
-Using the estimated time-series regression, predicted price in the 2nd quarter of 2014 is

A) $48.40
B) $54.40
C) $40.40
D) $51.40
E) none of the above