TABLE 16-12
the Manager of a Health Club Has

Short Answer

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to
obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2nd Order Model

$\begin{array} { l r } \text { Regression Statistics}\\ \text { Multiple R } & 0.993 \\ \text { R Square } & 0.987 \\ \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.985 \\ \text { Standard Error } & 9.276 \\ \text { Observations } & 15 \end{array}$

$\begin{array}{ll} & \text { Coetficients } \\\text { Intercept } & 5.86 \\\text { XVariable 1 } & 0.37 \\\text { XVariable 2 } & 0.85\end{array}$
$\text {SUMMARY}$

$\text {OUTPUT - 1st Order}$

$\text {Model Regression}$

$\begin{array} { l r }\text { Statistics}\\ \text { Multiple R } & 0.993 \\ \text { R Square } & 0.987 \\ \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.985 \\ \text { Standard Error } & 9.150 \\ \text { Observations } & 15 \end{array}$

$\begin{array}{lc} & \text { Coefficients } \\\text { Intercept } & 5.66 \\\text { XVariable 1 } & 1.10 \\\hline\end{array}$

-Referring to Table 16-12, using the first-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 16 is _____.