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Suppose That the Forecasted Price Levels Shown in the Pro

Question 28

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Suppose that the forecasted price levels shown in the pro forma cash flow sheet are not deterministic, but rather, are expected to fluctuate due to market forces. The prices are expected to be normally distributed in each year, with the means equal to the expected values shown in the pro forma, but with standard deviations of $5.2, $5.3, and $5.5 in years 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Enter this pro forma in an Excel worksheet, with the appropriate @RISK functions for the random prices, and simulate 1,000 iterations. What is the expected NPV now? Would you recommend investing in this project? Explain.

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The mean NPV will still be app...

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