Which of the Following Probabilities Would Most Likely Be Established

Multiple Choice

Which of the following probabilities would most likely be established by intuitive judgment?

A) the odds of being accepted into an Ivy League college
B) the odds of being audited by the IRS in a certain year
C) the odds of the paint in your house containing lead
D) the odds of your computer being infected by a virus in the next year
E) the odds of two particular countries being at war within the next decade