Consider the Following Time Series Data Using the Naïve Method (Most Recent Value) as the Forecast

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 456 \\\hline 8 & 412 \\\hline 9 & 525 \\\hline 10 & 436 \\\hline\end{array}$$ Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next year, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error
b. Mean squared error
c. Mean absolute percentage error
d. What is the forecast for year 11?