SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,in testing the significance of the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (- 0.129) which has a p-value of 0.492.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

A) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different from the revenues in an average quarter ( α = 0.05) .
B) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different from the revenues in an average quarter ( α = 0.05) .
C) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different from the revenues in the fourth quarter ( α = 0.05) .
D) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different from the revenues in the fourth quarter ( α = 0.05) .