Use the Information Below to Answer the Following Question(s)

Multiple Choice

Use the information below to answer the following question(s) . Below is a decision tree illustrating the R&D process for a new drug. Let us assume that if market is large, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $4,900 million and a standard deviation of $1,000 million; if market is medium, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $2,500 million and a standard deviation of $500 million; and if market is small, payoff is normally distributed with a mean of $1,800 million and standard deviation of
$200 million. Let us also assume that the cost of clinical trials is uncertain and estimates are modeled with a triangular distribution with a minimum of -$700 million, a most likely value of - $550 million, and a maximum of -$500 million. Use 10,000 trials and a random seed of 1.
-What is the probability that the drug will not reach the market? [Hint: Choose the approximate value.]

A) 0.95
B) 0.89
C) 0.77
D) 0.82