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Anna Is a Child Who Has Just Turned 2 Years

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Anna is a child who has just turned 2 years old, and she has entered the "terribletwo's" stage of human development. She has discovered that if she drops her spoonon the floor, her parents will pick it up and return it to her. By actual count halfwaythrough her second year, there have been 900 spoon retrievals. Out of these, 315times the spoon has landed in the "up" position on the floor. Based on this long seriesof observations, what is the estimated probability that her 901st spoon drop will landin the "up" position?

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